Coming off hitting a nice winner last week on Jason Day (my third outright of the year, and I also had Si Woo who finished T2 and Hatton who finished T5), this week we have the second major of the year, the PGA Championship at Oak Hill in Rochester, NY with a loaded field of all the best in the PGA Tour, the LIV Tour, and the DP World Tour.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7394 yards, Donald Ross design (1926) with an Andrew Green “complete remodel” in 2019 that removed a ton of trees and changed the greens, very long, 78 bunkers many of which are tough, water in play on 6 holes and there is some spots where it will force layups, both of the Par 5s are over 615 yards, 7 of the 12 Par 4s are over 460 yards, 2 of the Par 3s are over 230 yards, smallest average landing zones when you take into account combined fairway width and greens, fairways don’t have a lot of roll, lot of elevation changes, very narrow fairways averaging around 27 yards wide with bunkers in the landing zones, penal “dense” rough, no trees unless you miss wildly off the fairway, very small tiered and elevated pure bentgrass greens without much undulation anymore but in upside down bowl shapes with bunkers and shaved runoff areas protecting them
Tournament Notes
- This course has hosted six previous majors and a Ryder Cup with the last one being the 2013 PGA Championship won by Jason Dufner but the course is much different now after the redesign
- Cut line is Top 70 and ties rather than the typical Top 65 of most other events
- A lot of PGA of America (not PGA Tour) professionals and Champions Tour golfers are in the field that you can immediately just cross off
- I’m not including stats for the two guys on the LIV Tour that I’m using this week. The stats I can get are from their PGA Tour starts over a year ago since we don’t get strokes gained data from the LIV Tour, so I’m going more off feel on those guys
- Every PGA Championship winner since 2006 has made the cut the week before winning
- Besides Phil two years ago, who finished 69th in his even the week before (but was first round leader and 10th after 36 holes), every other winner since 2006 finished T28 or better the week prior
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards
Field
156 golfers – All of the best players in the world including the PGA Tour and the LIV Tour
Defending Champion: Justin Thomas (-5 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Will Zalatoris (-5)
One and Done: Brooks Koepka
One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Brooks, DJ
Players
Jon Rahm: 11400: +1100 – First in my model, the best golfer in the world, 48,8,13,MC,4,58 finishes in his PGA Championships, won the Masters, 2,15,1,39,1,3,7,1,1,4 finishes in his last ten events, 10th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Distance, 7th in Good Drives Gained, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 59th in Sand Saves, 59th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 4th in Bogie Avoidance, his price at +1100 boosted on DraftKings Sportsbook I think is great value
Brooks Koepka: 10100: +2200 – Two time PGA Championship winner in 2019 and 2018 with 55,2,29,1,1,13,4,5,15,70 finishes at his PGA Championships, lead the first three rounds of the Masters and fell apart on Sunday against Rahm, even when he was still on the PGA Tour he only cared about majors and was spectacular in them, T5,3,T11,1,T24,T27 finishes on the LIV Tour this season, has the skillset for majors and for this course
Tony Finau: 9500: +2200 – Think he could break through with his first major win this week, second in my model, 30,8,4,64,42,44,MC,10 finishes at his PGA Championships, 23,1,31,26,19,24,20,14,9,16,7,1 finishes in his last twelve events, 1st in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 39th in Driving Distance, 29th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Proximity 200+ yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 14th in Sand Saves, 48th in SG: ARG, 65th in Putting, 15th in Bogie Avoidance
Jason Day: 8900: +3000 – 55,44,4,23,19,9,2,1,15,8 finishes at his PGA Championships including an 8th place finish here in 2013, coming off his win at the Byron Nelson last week with 1,MC,39,19,10,9,5,7,18,MC,16,21,11,8 finishes in his last 14 events, 26th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 51st in Driving Distance, 19th in Good Drives Gained, 67th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 6th in Sand Saves, 15th in SG: ARG, 5th in Putting, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Dustin Johnson: 8800: +3000 – MC,MC,2,2,27,13,MC,7,8,48,MC,5,10 finishes at his PGA Championships including finishing 8th here in 2013 earlier in his career, coming off a playoff win last week against Cam Smith last week on the LIV Tour, 1,T23,10,7,T13,T35 finishes on the LIV Tour this season, has the skillset for majors and for this course
Gary Woodland: 7100: +9000 – Really pops in my model this week, 34,38,58,8,6,22,MC,MC,74,42,12 finishes at his PGA Championships, 14,39,31,14,45,54,MC,9,42,62 finishes in his last ten events, 14th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Distance, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 38th in Par 4 Scoring, 71st in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 125th in Sand Saves, 134th in SG: ARG, 144th in Putting, 49th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
1u Jon Rahm (+1100)
.5u Tony Finau (+2200)
.5u Brooks Koepka (+2200)
.4u Jason Day (+3000)
.4u Dustin Johnson (+3000)
.2u Gary Woodland (+9000)
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