Last night I split my two plays on Game 7 with the Leafs losing in OT but the under cashing easily in an awesome game. Today the second round of the NHL Playoffs starts with Rangers vs. Canes while the first round ends with Game 7 of Stars vs. Knights. Let’s keep winning!
Game 1 – Rangers vs. Hurricanes (4:00)
As I broke down in my full series preview blog, I expect this second round Metro Division series between the top two teams in the division to be absolutely incredible as the President’s Trophy winning New York Rangers, who swept the Capitals in the first round host the #2 seed Carolina Hurricanes, who beat the Isles in five games. Both of these teams have been fantastic all year and were the quickest (along with the Oilers) to advance from the first round. I have a future on the Canes to win the Cup that I placed prior to the playoffs that I still like quite a bit, and I think they go on to win the Eastern Conference Championship and go on to face the winner of Vegas/Dallas in the Cup Finals. This series makes me pretty nervous though. The Rangers and Canes are very similar hockey teams in my opinion and I feel like this is pretty close to a toss up of a series. I think this ends up being a tough, competitive series that goes six or seven games. I was a bit surprised by the price on this one being -160 on the Canes side. I considered putting 2 units on the Rangers to win the series as a hedge to my Carolina future, but I’m just going to let this ride. If the Canes can win Game 1 or Game 2 at MSG, the series price should make that hedge a lot easier, so I’ll hold off doing so. I do like this series to go at least six games though, and I’ll take the series to go over 5.5 games for 2 units. I expect the games in this series to trend under, with both of these teams being elite defensively. The Hurricanes trended under in the regular season, with the under going 49-35-3 in their games this year. The Rangers trended slightly over. In the first round, the under 5.5 went 2-2 in Rangers games, and 3-2 in Hurricanes games. Additionally, with the bit of extra rest between series I think Game 1 starts off pretty slow this afternoon for both teams offensively. I’ll take the under in Game 1 today for a unit. Although I think Carolina wins the series, I’d slightly lean the Rangers win Game 1 at home in MSG, but not enough to bet on it. I’ll stay off the side in Game 1.
Game 7 – Stars vs. Golden Knights (7:30)
This series has been spectacular, and it’s a real shame that one of these teams are going to get eliminated in the first round. It’s been awesome to watch with plenty of swings in this series. The Knights took a 2-0 series lead on the road in Dallas before the Stars came roaring back and put the champs on the brink of elimination with three straight wins. Then on Friday night, Adin Hill put together a shutout in a 2-0 Vegas win at home in the Fortress to force Game 7 tonight. I really do think the Stanley Cup Champion this season is the winner of this series, and now this game. I have futures on both of these teams to win the Cup, so one of those are losing tonight. There really isn’t a way to hedge out of it either. Anything can happen in Game 7 and although I’d slightly lean the Stars eliminated the defending Cup Champs tonight, I don’t like it enough to bet on it. I’ll just take the 4 unit loss on one of those futures. Game 7s typically trend under, as has this series, with the under hitting in four of the six games. I love it tonight, expecting a low scoring, defensive grind of a game. I’ll take the under for 3 units as my final play of a very profitable first round of the playoffs.
Game Bets
1u Hurricanes/Rangers under 5.5 (-110)
3u Stars/Golden Knights under 5.5 (-120)
Series Bets
2u Hurricanes/Rangers over 5.5 games (-188)
Futures
4u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+1000)
4u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+850)
3u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+650)
Regular Season Record: 599-527-12 (-95.22 units)
Round 1 Record: 60-44 (+21.2 units)
Round 2 Record: 0-0
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A Town's Zone 