I expect this second round Metro Division series between the top two teams in the division to be absolutely incredible as the President’s Trophy winning New York Rangers, who swept the Capitals in the first round host the #2 seed Carolina Hurricanes, who beat the Isles in five games. These teams faced each other in the second round two years ago, with the Rangers winning in seven games. An interesting tidbit too on this series, this will be the first time since 1947 that two opposing coaches who won a Cup together will face each other, with Peter Laviolette being the coach and Rod Brind’Amour being the captain of the 2006 Canes (that was my Sabres year, will forever make me sad that all five of our top defenseman were out and we lost in OT of Game 7 of the Eastern Conference Finals). The puck drops for Game 1 this afternoon at 4 in MSG.

During the regular season this year, the Rangers went 2-1 against Carolina. They won the first game between them 2-1 at home on November 2nd. The Canes answered back with a dominant 6-1 win on the road in MSG on January 2nd, and the Rags finished the regular season series with a 1-0 shutout win for Shesterkin in Raleigh on March 12th.

The New York Rangers had a fantastic season this year, finishing the year with the best record in the NHL and winning the President’s Trophy as they went 55-23-4 as they set a franchise record for most points in a season. Besides a brief slump in January where they went on a four game losing streak, they didn’t lose more than two games in a row all year.

The Rangers were the only team to sweep their opponent in the first round, making easy work of the Capitals, dominating them for a 4-0 series win. They won Game 1 dominating the whole game for a 4-1 win. The Caps played their best game in Game 2, but the Rags still got a 4-3 win, then as the series shifted to Washington, New York got a 3-1 win in Game 3 before closing it out with a 4-2 win in Game 4. Such easy money.

Statistically the Rangers were very good on both ends of the ice in the first round. They were the fifth highest scoring offense in the first round, scoring an average of 3.75 goals per game. Defensively New York allowed an average of just 1.75 goals per game, the second fewest of any team in the playoffs. The Rags power play scored on 37.5% of their chances, only second behind the Oilers. Their penalty kill was very good as well at 88.2%, fourth of all the playoff teams.

In the regular season, statistically the Rags were very good on both ends of the ice this year. They were the seventh highest scoring team in the league this year, averaging 3.39 goals per game on an average of 31.5 shots per game. New York generated the eleventh-most expected goals per game (3.22) and the 15th-most high danger shots in the league. The Rangers power play was very good too, ranking third in the league as they scored on 26.4% of their chances. Artemi Panarin had a great year, leading the Rangers in scoring with 120 points, 49 goals, and 71 assists.

Defensively New York was fantastic too. They allowed an average of 2.76 goals per game, the seventh-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.5 shots allowed per game. The Rangers gave up the 13th-fewest expected goals per game (3) and the tenth-fewest high danger shots. Their penalty kill was the third best in the league, killing penalties at an 84.5% rate. Igor Shesterkin led the way in gaol, with a 36-17-2 year, with a 2.58 GAA, a .913 save percentage, and four shutouts. Veteran backup Jonathan Quick was solid behind him with an 18-6-2 record, a 2.62 GAA, and a .911 save percentage, with two shutouts.

The Hurricanes had a really good season this year, very comfortably finishing the regular season in second place in the Metro with a 52-23-7 record, three points behind the Rangers for the President’s Trophy and 17 points ahead of the Islanders. They finished the regular season with a 16-4-1 record in their last 21 games, with a 6-3 loss in Columbus in their last game of the season on Tuesday where they rested eight of their starters.

Carolina had a very good first round of the playoffs, knocking off the Islanders in five games. They won Game 1 pretty easily despite not playing great, with a 3-1 win at home. Game 2 was insane as the Hurricanes were the far better team and dominated, outshooting the Isles 39-12 but were down 3-0 to start the game and didn’t tie it up until there were just 2:15 left. But nine seconds later they scored again to take the lead on route to a 5-3 victory. As the series shifted to Long Island, the Canes didn’t play great in Game 3, but still got a 3-2 win. The Islanders avoided a sweep in Game 4, with Mathew Barzal scoring the game winner in double overtime for a 3-2 Isles win. Carolina took an early lead and dominated Game 5 to close out the series with a huge 6-3 win to eliminate the Islanders and advance to the second round.

The Canes were really solid statistically in that first round, despite not playing their best hockey in a few of those games. They were the fourth highest scoring team in the first round, averaging 3.8 goals per game. Defensively, they allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the first round, an average of 2.4 per game. Their power play was clicking at a 33.3% rate, ranking fifth of all playoff teams and they killed penalties at a 72.7% rate.

Carolina was very successful on both ends of the ice this year in the regular season. They’ve scored an average of 3.38 goals per game, the eighth-most in the NHL, on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-most expected goals (3.44 per game) and the ninth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Canes scored on 26.9% of their power play opportunities, the second most in the NHL. Sebastian Aho lead them in scoring this year with 89 points, 36 goals, and 53 assists. They made a huge addition to their offense at the trade deadline, adding Jake Guentzel from the Penguins.

Defensively the Hurricanes were even better this year, one of the best teams in the league on the back end. They allowed just the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.57 goals per game on an average of 25.6 shots allowed per game, the lowest in the league. They’ve given up the fewest expected goals (2.65 per game) and the fifth-fewest high-danger shots. Carolina has the best penalty kill in the NHL this year, killing off 86.4% of their penalties. Veteran Frederik Andersen is projected to be their starter this season. This year, while dealing with injuries, he went 13-2 with a 1.84 GAA, a .932 save percentage, and three shutouts. His young backup Pyotr Kochetkov had a solid year, with a 23-13-4 record, a 2.33 GAA (the second best in the NHL), a .911 save percentage, and four shutouts.

I think this is going to be an incredible series. Both of these teams have been fantastic all year and were the quickest (along with the Oilers) to advance from the first round. I have a future on the Canes to win the Cup that I placed prior to the playoffs that I still like quite a bit, and I think they go on to win the Eastern Conference Championship and go on to face the winner of Vegas/Dallas in the Cup Finals. This series makes me pretty nervous though. The Rangers and Canes are very similar hockey teams in my opinion and I feel like this is pretty close to a toss up of a series. I think this ends up being a tough, competitive series that goes six or seven games. I was a bit surprised by the price on this one being -160 on the Canes side. I considered putting 2 units on the Rangers to win the series as a hedge to my Carolina future, but I’m just going to let this ride. If the Canes can win Game 1 or Game 2 at MSG, the series price should make that hedge a lot easier, so I’ll hold off doing so. I do like this series to go at least six games though, and I’ll take the series to go over 5.5 games for 2 units.

I expect the games in this series to trend under, with both of these teams being elite defensively. The Hurricanes trended under in the regular season, with the under going 49-35-3 in their games this year. The Rangers trended slightly over. In the first round, the under 5.5 went 2-2 in Rangers games, and 3-2 in Hurricanes games. Additionally, with the bit of extra rest between series I think Game 1 starts off pretty slow this afternoon for both teams offensively. I’ll take the under in Game 1 today for a unit.

Although I think Carolina wins the series, I’d slightly lean the Rangers win Game 1 at home in MSG, but not enough to bet on it. I’ll stay off the side in Game 1.

Futures

3u Carolina Hurricanes – Stanley Cup Champions (+650)

Series Bets

2u Hurricanes/Rangers over 5.5 games (-188)

Game 1 Bets

1u Hurricanes/Rangers under 5.5 (-110)

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