Even though this is the #1 seed in the Eastern Conference vs. the second Wild Card team, I actually expect this to be a pretty solid series to start the playoffs between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Ottawa Senators. This will be the first time these franchises have met in the Stanley Cup Playoffs.
During the regular season, Carolina went 2-1 against the Sens. They easily won the first game between them on the road, with a 4-1 win in Ottawa back on January 24th. The second game between them was tight on February 3rd, with the Sens coming back from a 3-1 deficit late in the second period, before Jordan Staal ended it with 5:07 to go in regulation for a 4-3 Hurricanes win at home. In Ottawa for the last game between them earlier this month on April 5th, the Senators avoided the season sweep with a 6-3 win at home.
The Carolina Hurricanes have had a fantastic season, winning the Eastern Conference,. They finished the season with a 52-22-5 record, cruising to the Metro Division win, 15 points ahead of the #2 seed Pittsburgh Penguins. They were great on both ends of the ice all season, winning the East, four points ahead of my Buffalo Sabres.
The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they were second in scoring behind just the Avalanche, averaging 3.55 goals per game on an average of 2.88 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.6) in the NHL (also just behind Colorado) and the most high danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play was great this year, scoring at just a 24.9% rate, the fourth-best in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (80 points, 53 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).
Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.88 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 23.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.82) and the ninth-fewest high danger shots. The Hurricanes had the eleventh-best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 80.6%. Brandon Bussi, who was claimed off waivers became a star and a great story in goal this year, going an impressive 31-6-2, fourth-best in the NHL, with a sixth-best 2.47 GAA, and a .895 save percentage, with two shutouts this year. Starting in goal though in Game 1 will be the veteran Freddy Andersen. Although he’s had plenty of experience, he wasn’t great this year, going 16-14-5, with a 3.05 GAA, and a .874 save percentage.
The Ottawa Senators didn’t have a great start to the season but rallied big time in the second half, playing fantastic hockey to get into the playoffs as the second Wild Card with a 44-27-11 record. Since January 13th, which they went into with a 23-21-7 record, they went 21-6-4 to get into the playoffs. They’re coming into today with a 5-0-1 record in their last six games, ending the year with a 3-1 win at home on Wednesday night against their lousy rival Leafs in the Battle of Ontario.
The Sens were solid offensively all year, scoring an average of 3.35 goals per game, the eighth-most in the NHL, on an average of 28.9 shots per game. They’ve generated the sixth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.27) and the most high danger shots in the league. Ottawa’s power play was good, ranking eighth in the NHL, scoring at a 24% rate. Tim Stutzle lead the team in scoring with 83 points, 34 goals, and 49 assists. Captain Brady Tkachuk also chipped in quite a bit with 59 points in his 60 games played, and Drake Batherson added in 71 points (33 goals, 38 assists).
Ottawa’s biggest issue early in the year was goaltending, but they did turn it around pretty well for their second half run. They finished the season allowing an average of 2.99 goals per game, the 13th-fewest in the league. Defensively though when you look at the underlying numbers, the Senators gave up the fewest expected goals in the NHL, just 2.67 per game and they gave up the fewest high danger shots. Linus Ullmark had his issues in goal all year, going 28-12-8 with a 2.73 GAA, an .891 save percentage, and three shutouts. Wasn’t great.
I like Carolina to win this series, likely in six games, but it honestly wouldn’t shock me if it goes to Game 7. I just think there’s less question marks to their game than their is for Ottawa. I’ll take the Canes to win the series, at a pretty reasonable price of -165 for 2 units.
The over/unders in this series are tough for me to predict. Two of the three games between these teams in the regular season went over and the both teams trended over the season, with the over going 44-37-1 in Canes games and 42-38-2 in Sens games. Both teams have kind of trended under lately, and although both offenses are good, what really gives me pause there though is that both defenses when you look at the underlying chances that they’ve given up have been phenomenal, but the goalies for both teams are a bit of a question mark, with Ullmark having a mess of a year, and Bussi having no playoff experience. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 today and evaluate it as the series goes on.
The player props in this series are pretty straight forward to me and I’ll be looking at parlays on Sebastian Aho, Seth Jarvis, Tim Stutzle, and Brady Tkachuk to each get a point on every game, who have all been point per game players all year. I also may look at Andrei Svechnikov, who’s recorded a point in his last five games at has eleven points in his last nine (getting left off the score sheet just once in that span).
Expecting the Canes to win the series, I’ll take them for a unit today in Game 1 at home. I like a handful of player props in this game as well. I’ll parlay Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho to each get a point for half a unit, and individually I’ll take Stutzle, Tkachuk, and Andrei Svechnikov to each get a point for half a unit each. I’ll also parlay all five of them for .4 units.
Series Bets
2u Carolina Hurricanes – Series Winner (-165)
Game 1 Bets
1u Hurricanes ML (-150)
.5u parlay: Seth Jarvis/Sebastian Aho 1+ point each (-120)
.5u Andrei Svechnikov over 0.5 point (-160)
.5u Tim Stutzle over 0.5 point (-160)
.5u Brady Tkachuk over 0.5 point (-135)
.4u parlay: Jarvis/Aho/Svechnikov/Stutzle/Tkachuk 1+ point each (+460)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 