This Central Division matchup is one of my most anticipated of the first round, between the #2 seed Dallas Stars and the #3 seed Minnesota Wild. Both of these teams were fantastic this season, being the second and third overall seeds in the West, clinching their spots in the playoffs a couple weeks ago. I expect this series to be an all out war, and it’s a real shame that the winner of this series will likely have to play the President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche in the second round. That’s the issue with the current divisional rather than conference 1-8 format of the playoffs, but it is what it is. This series should be incredible with both teams playing great on both ends of the ice.
During the regular season, these teams split their four games. During the first week of the season in Dallas on October 14th, the Stars were outshot 25-41, but won pretty easily, 5-2 at home. Minnesota answered back at home on December 11th with a 5-2 win of their own, in a game that was closer than the score with two empty netters as they outshot the Stars 32-18. The third game on March 21st in Minnesota was even tighter, with Vladdy Tarasenko scoring the overtime winner for a 2-1 win at home. The Stars ended the season series a couple weeks ago on the 9th with a 5-4 win at home, coming back from a 3-1 deficit.
The Dallas Stars have had a spectacular season, finishing second overall in the NHL with a 50-20-12 record, nine points behind the President’s Trophy winning Avs and eight point ahead of the Wild for home ice. They closed out the regular season with a five game win streak, ending the year with a 4-3 shootout win on the road in Buffalo against my Sabres on Wednesday night, in a game I was pretty surprised they had their whole lineup in.
The Stars were very good this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they were ninth in scoring, lighting the lamp for an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of 29.2 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11) in the NHL and the sixth-most high danger shots in the league. Dallas had a great power play this year, scoring at a 28.6% rate, second-best in the NHL behind the Oilers. They were led this season by Jason Robertson (96 points, 45 goals), Mikko Rantanen (74 points, 55 assists in 64 games), and Wyatt Johnston (86 points, 45 goals).
Defensively Dallas was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.71 goals per game, the second-fewest in the NHL behind the Avs, on an average of 26.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the sixth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.84) and the eleventh-fewest high danger shots. The Stars had the 13th-best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 80.3%. Jake Oettinger’s a top notch goalie in this league, and went 35-12-6, the third best record in the NHL this season with a 2.59 GAA, an .899 save percentage, and four shutouts. Casey DeSmith was pretty solid in his backup role, going 15-8-6 with a fourth-best 2.43 GAA this year, a .907 save percentage, and a shutout.
The Minnesota Wild got off to a slower start to the year with a 3-6-3 start, but ended up having an awesome season, finishing the year easily in third in the Central, going 46-24-12 this season. They made a huge acquisition relatively early in the year, acquiring one of the best defenseman in the league, getting Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks, averaging an assist per game after heading to Minnesota.
The Wild were solid offensively this season, scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the eleventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.17) and the ninth-most high danger shots in the league. The Minnesota power play was great, third in the NHL behind just the Oilers and the Stars, scoring at a 25.2% rate. Their offense was led by Kirill Kaprizov (89 points, 45 goals, 44 assists) and Matt Boldy (85 points, 42 goals, 43 assists), while Quinn Hughes led them with 48 assists in 48 games.
Minnesota was good on the back end too. They allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.87 goals per game, trailing just the Avs, Stars, and Lightning. They gave up the eighth-fewest expected goals (2.9) in the NHL per game and they gave up the third-fewest high danger shots. The Wild were around league average on the penalty kill, ranking 17th in the league at 79.8%. Both young goaltenders for the Wild were good this year. Jesper Wallstedt, who will start tonight, was 18-9-6, with a 2.61 GAA, a second-best in the league .916 save percentage, and four shutouts. Filip Gustavsson was 28-15-6, with a 2.69 GAA, .904 save percentage and four shutouts as well.
I think this is going to be a fantastic series that ends up going at least six games. I do think the Stars are the slightly better team and I think home ice gives them the bump to get the series win. I’ll take the Stars to win the series for 2 units. I really love the series to go over 5.5 games, but at -210, that’s way too expensive for me to bet on, so instead I’ll bet it to go exactly 6 games and exactly 7 games for 1.5 units each, essentially making it pretty much +105.
The regular season games between these teams went over in three of the four games. They both trended over this year, with the over going 41-40-1 in Stars games and 44-35-3 in Wild games. I’d lean the games in this series to likely trend over, but I could also see it be a hard, physical series that tends to trend under. I’ll stay off it in Game 1 and re-evaluate as the season goes on.
Through the regular season, the player props for these teams were some of my most profitable this year. I like parlays on the Wild side of Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point and on the Stars side of Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Wyatt Johnston to each get points.
Expecting the Stars to win the series, I’ll take them for half a unit tonight at home. I’m staying off the total. On the player props, I’ll parlay Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, and Kirill Kaprizov to each get a point for half a unit. I’ll individually take Matt Boldy and Wyatt Johnston to get a point for half a unit each, and I’ll take Quinn Hughes to get an assist for half a unit (he only had four goals for Minnesota this year, so I’d rather take that than the -185 on him to get a point). I’ll also go with a long shot parlay on all six of those guys to each get a point for 0.4 units.
Series Bets
2u Dallas Stars – Series Winner (-120)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 6 Games (+200)
1.5u Dallas Stars/Minnesota Wild – Exactly 7 Games (+210)
Game 1 Bets
.5u Stars ML (-120)
.5u parlay: Jason Robertson/Mikko Rantanen/Kirill Kaprizov 1+ point each (+184)
.5u Matt Boldy over 0.5 point (-166)
.5u Wyatt Johnston over 0.5 point (-160)
.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-130)
.4u parlay: Robertson/Rantanen/Kaprizov/Boldy/Johnston/Hughes point each (+808)
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