I wouldn’t say this is all that great of a series between the 7th and 8th best teams in the East but this Metro Division rivalry for the Battle of Pennsylvania is always fun as the #2 seed Pittsburgh Penguins face the #3 seed Philadelphia Flyers in the first round.
During the regular season, these teams split their four games, with both Penguins wins being blowouts and both Flyers wins coming in the shootout. The first game between these teams back on October 28th went to a shootout in a tight game, with Philly winning 3-2 at home. The Penguins answered back with a 5-1 blowout on the road in Philly on December 1st. They followed that up with a big 6-3 win at home on January 15th. Then in the final game in Pittsburgh on March 7th, both teams traded goals with it going to a shootout for Trevor Zebras to be the hero in the shootout to tie up the season series.
I expected the Penguins to be horrible this year, but with the will of an ageless Sidney Crosby, they had a solid season, clinching the two seed in the Metro and home ice with a 41-25-16 record a week or so ago.
The Penguins were very good offensively this year. They scored an average of 3.54 goals per game, the third most in the league, on an average of 28.6 shots per game. They’ve generated the seventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.26) in the NHL and the third-most high danger shots in the league. Pittsburgh had a great power play this year, scoring at a 24.1% rate, seventh-best in the NHL. They were led this season by the ageless wonder Sidney Crosby (74 points, 29 goals, 45 assists) while they played very well overall as a team. Anthony Mantha led them with 33 goals, Erik Karlsson led them with 51 assists, and Bryan Rust (65 points, 29 goals, 36 assists), and another guy not showing his age, Evgeni Malkin (61 points, 19 goals, 42 assists in 56 games played).
Defensively Pittsburgh was bad this year, allowing an average of just 3.15 goals per game, the ninth-most in the NHL, on an average of 27.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the 16th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.11) and the 15th-most high danger shots. The Pens had the a solid penalty kill at 81.4%, the sixth-best in the league. Stuart Skinner will start in goal for Pittsburgh, who’s been alright since getting traded from the Oilers at the deadline. This year for both teams he was 23-17-9, with a 2.92 GAA, .888 save percentage, and two shutouts. I still wouldn’t trust him though, and Arturs Silovs behind him isn’t great either.
The Philadelphia Flyers were the last team in the East to clinch their playoff spot with a 43-27-12 record, beating out the Islanders and Blue Jackets for that last spot after the Bruins and Senators had already clinched both Wild Card spots in the East out of the Atlantic Division. Philly started the season much better than expected, going 14-7-3 in their first 24 games, but then came crumbling down. The Flyers had just a 3.8% chance of making the playoffs after the Olympics break, but rallied big time to close out the season and get in, going 18-6-1 in their last 25 games to get in, ending the season on a three game win streak with six wins in their last seven games.
The Flyers weren’t great on either end of the ice this season. Offensively, they scored an average of just 2.93 goals per game, the twelfth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of only 25.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the eighth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.88) and the eighth-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Philly power play was the worst in the NHL, scoring at just 15.7% rate. Travis Konecny led them in scoring with 68 points, 27 goals, and 41 assists with Owen Tippett leading them with 28 goals and shootout star Trevor Zegras adding in 67 points (26 goals and 41 assists).
Philly was actually good on the back end though. They allowed the ninth-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.92 goals per game on an average of 25.5 shots allowed per game. They gave up the third-fewest expected goals (2.77) in the NHL per game, behind just Vegas and Ottawa and they gave up the fifth-fewest high danger shots. The Flyers struggled on the penalty kill at 77.6%, eleventh worst in the league. Dan Vladar was solid in goal this year for Philly, going 29-14-7 with a 2.42 GAA, third best in the NHL, and a .906 save percentage.
Even with how impressive Philly has been defensively, I still don’t see a way they win this series. Sidney Crosby, who’s a three time Stanley Cup Champ will lead the Penguins to win the series. I’ll take them to win the series for 3 units.
I’d expect the games in this series to trend over. The over 6.5 went 2-2 this season in the games between these teams, with each game hitting at least five goals. Pittsburgh games flew over this year, going 47-33-2 this year, while Philly trended under, with their games going 38-39-5 on the over.
The only two players I’ll really be looking at player props in for this series will be Sidney Crosby and Evgeni Malkin.
Expecting the Pens to win the series, I like them quite a bit to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them for 1.5 units. I’ll also throw in the over at even money for half a unit, and I’ll parlay Sid and Geno to each get a point for half a unit.
Series Bets
3u Pittsburgh Penguins – Series Winner (-160)
Game 1 Bets
1.5u Penguins ML (-150)
.5u Penguins/Flyers over 6.5 (+100)
.5u parlay: Sidney Crosby/Evgeni Malkin 1+ point each (-110)
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