I think this is the biggest mismatch of a series in the first round as the President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche face the second Wild Card in the West, the LA Kings. I’m expecting this to be a pretty quick series.
The Avalanche swept the regular season series between these teams, winning by multiple goals every game they played. On opening night of the season in LA on October 7th, the Avs dominated their way to a 4-1 win with Martin Necas scoring twice with two assists from Nathan MacKinnon, shutting out the Kings until a power play goal with 4:54 left in the game. Colorado followed that up with another dominant win home on December 29th, crushing the Kings 5-2. Then in the last game they played in LA on March 2nd, the Avs got a 4-2 win in the tightest game they played, which was tied up until Devon Toews scored the game winner with 4:55 to go in regulation, capped off by a Martin Necas empty netter with two seconds left in the game.
Colorado was far and away the best team in the league this year, clinching the President’s Trophy relatively early in this spectacular season. They went 55-16-11, the best team in the NHL by nine points over the Stars. They have been the Cup favorite all year to the point that it’ll almost be a disappointing season if they don’t lift Lord Stanley for the second time in four years. They have top tier stars on that team at both ends of the ice and have so much depth that there really aren’t any weak spots in that lineup.
The Avs were the best team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, playing spectacular hockey all year. Offensively, they led the league in scoring, lighting the lamp for an average of 3.63 goals per game on a league-leading average of 33.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.62) in the NHL and the second-most high danger shots in the league, trailing just the Canes. Colorado’s only issue offensively were their struggles on the power play this year, scoring at just a 17.1% rate, the sixth-worst in the NHL. Nathan MacKinnon led the way for the Avalanche this year in a Hart Trophy worth season with 127 points, winning the Rocket Richard with 53 goals, and 74 assists. Martin Necas hit the 100 point make as well with 38 goals and 62 assists, while Cale Makar, the best defenseman in the NHL, had over a point per game on the back end, with 79 points and 59 assists.
Defensively Colorado was the best in the league as well by a significant margin, allowing the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.4 goals per game, on an average of 26.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78) and the sixth-fewest high danger shots. The Avs had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL as well at 81.9%. Both of their goalies were fantastic. Mackenzie Blackwood’s projected to start Game 1 and went 23-10-2, with a 2.51 GAA, a .904 save percentage, and three shutouts. Scott Wedgwood was even better successfully, going 31-6-6, with a league-leading 2.02 GAA, a league-leading .921 save percentage, and four shutouts.
The Kings weren’t all that great this year, as the last team to sneak into the playoffs with a 35-27-20 as the second Wild Card team in the West. All those loser points in overtime added up for them to get in. That’s not to discount this team though, seeing that the last time this franchise was the 8 seed heading into the playoffs back in 2012, they won the Stanley Cup. This team also has plenty of playoff experience although it feels like every year they lose to the Oilers in the first round. That said, I don’t really have much faith in them this season. LA had a solid push at the end of the year, going 6-1-2 in their last nine games to get into the playoffs.
LA struggled a ton offensively this season, scoring an average of just 2.68 goals per game, the third-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 28 shots per game. They’ve generated the tenth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.96) and the sixth-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Kings power play sucked, fifth-worst in the NHL, scoring at only a 17% rate. Adrian Kempe led LA offensively this year, with 73 points, 36 goals, and 37 assists. One of their best players, Kevin Fiala was injured during the Olympics, which was a big loss for them. The Kings did make a big acquisition prior to the break though to bolster their offense, getting Artemi Panarin from the Rangers, who had 27 points, 9 goals, and 18 assists in his 26 games for LA, getting to 84 points (28 goals, 56 assists) for both teams through the season, averaging more than a point per game.
The Kings relied heavily on their good defensive play and goaltending to win games this year. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.9 goals per game on an average of 27.2 shots per game. They gave up the sixth-fewest expected goals (2.84) in the NHL per game and they gave up the second-fewest high danger shots, trailing just the Senators. The LA penalty kill was awful though, the third worst in the NHL, only better than the shitty Kraken and Canucks, killing penalties at just a 74.6% rate. Anton Forsberg, who’s expected to start today, was solid in goal, going 16-12-5 with an eleventh-best 2.57 GAA, a sixth-best .910 save percentage, and three shutouts. Veteran Darcy Kuemper was pretty decent too, going 19-14-15 with a 2.78 GAA, an .891 save percentage, and three shutouts.
I don’t expect the Kings to be able to compete with the high powered offense of the Avalanche in this series whatsoever. They’re not good and there’s no gaps in that Colorado team. I fully expect this series to be done in probably five games, with LA maybe stealing one game. The Avs deservingly are the biggest favorite of the first round at -450. Can’t bet that obviously. The series spread though for them to six in six games or less I think is very reasonable though at -185. I considered doing the -2.5 games (five games or less), but at -145, I’d rather take a bit bigger of a risk at -185. I’ll take that for 4 units. I’ll also sprinkle half a unit on the Avs to sweep the Kings.
I’d lean the unders in this series. Both of these teams have been very good defensively this year and the Kings offense is horrible. The under 5.5 though has only gone 1-2 in the three games these played this season though. Both teams trended under this year, with the under in Avs games going 47-31-4 and in Kings games going 44-37-1. I’ll stay off it at 5.5 in Game 1 since I could see the Avalanche scoring five goals themselves, but I’m not touching it.
For player props in this series, I love a few on the Avs side that I’ll be riding all series. My most profitable player prop parlay all year (which there weren’t many of that made me any money) has been Nathan MacKinnon, Cale Makar, and Martin Necas to each get a point, and along with that, MacKinnon over 1.5 points was quite profitable as well. I’ll be on those quite a bit. I also did pretty well late in the season parlaying Adrian Kempe and Artemi Panarin to each get a point in Kings games.
Fully expecting Colorado to win the series, I love them to win Game 1 at home today to start it off. The moneyline is way too expensive at -278, but I’ll take them in regulation for 1.5 units. I’d lean the under, but not enough to bet it. I’ll also parlay Martin Necas, Cale Makar, Adrian Kempe, and Artemi Panarin to each get a point for half a unit, and I’ll take the Nate Dogg to get over 1.5 points for a unit. I considered taking him to score a goal as well, but I’ll lay off it at – money.
Series Bets
4u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in 6 Games or Less (-185)
.5u Colorado Avalanche – To Win Series in Exactly 4 Games (+450)
Game 1 Bets
1.5u Avalanche in regulation (-175)
.5u parlay: Martin Necas/Cale Makar/Adrian Kempe/Artemi Panarin point each (+140)
1u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-130)
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