This should be a pretty fun series in the West as the Pacific Division Champion Vegas Golden Knights face the first wild card Utah Mammoth. Both of these teams had their ups and downs this year but have played pretty good hockey, setting up a competitive first round matchup.
The Mammoth went 2-1 during the regular season matchups between these teams this year. The Golden Knights won the first game pretty easily on the road back on November 20th, winning 4-1. Utah answered back with a blowout of their own in the second game, winning 5-1 at home on November 24th, on a four goal night (with two empty netters) for Logan Cooley in a game where Vegas outshot them 34-23. The Mammoth shut out the Knights 4-0 in Vegas in the final game between them on March 19th.
The Golden Knights had plenty of their struggles this season, as the whole Pacific Division was pretty weak this season. They were quite disappointing with the way they played this season, especially when you look at how good that lineup is. In the midst of a losing run where they looked like crap at the end of March, Vegas fired head coach Bruce Cassidy, who led them to a Stanley Cup win three years ago and hired John Tortorella as their new interim head coach. Under Torts, the Knights went 7-0-1 in their last eight games, to win the Pacific with a 39-26-17 record on a ten game point streak, two points ahead of the Oilers.
Vegas was a little bit better than league average on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they averaged 3.22 goals per game, ranking 14th in the NHL, on an average of 29 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) in the league and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Knights’ power play was pretty good, scoring at a 24.6% rate, the sixth-best in the NHL. The star players led the way for Vegas this year. Jack Eichel led them with 90 points, 27 goals, and 63 assists. Mitch Marner added in 80 points, 24 goals, and 56 points. Captain Mark Stone had 73 points, 28 goals, and 45 assists in just 60 games, and Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals for the second year in a row with 37.
Defensively the Golden Knights were pretty good, allowing the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.95 goals per game, on an average of just 24.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the just the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.69), trailing just the Senators and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. The Vegas penalty kill unit was very good at 81.4%, ranking sixth in the NHL. The goaltending for the Knights had their issues at times. Carter Hart, who was signed halfway into the season and will start tonight, was 11-3-3, with a 2.71 GAA and .891 save percentage. Adin Hill, their Cup winning goalie, went 10-9-6, with a 3.04 GAA, an .871 save percentage, and a shutout. Akira Schmid actually played the most games for them this year, going 16-10-6, with a 2.59 GAA, a .893 save percentage, and two shutouts.
The Mammoth had a pretty solid season, going 43-33-6, pretty much holding the first wild card spot in the West, finishing fourth in the Central Division. They were a team of runs this season too, but finished strong with a 6-3 record in their last eight games, clinching their spot with a five game win streak in the first week of April.
Utah was solid on both ends of the ice this season. They scored an average of 3.27 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 27.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.08) and the 13th-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Mammoth power play wasn’t all that great at 20%, the 15th-lowest in the NHL. Clayton Keller led the way for them with 88 points and 62 assists, Dylan Guenther had 73 points, led them with 40 goals, and had 33 assists, and Nick Schmaltz had a great year with 74 points, 33 goals, and 41 assists.
The Mammoth were good defensively this year. They allowed the tenth-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of 2.93 goals per game on an average of 26.1 shots per game. They gave up the 13th-fewest expected goals (3.17) in the NHL per game and they gave up the tenth-fewest high danger shots. The Utah penalty kill wasn’t great, the 14th-worst in the NHL at 78.1%. Karel Vejmelka carried the bulk of the load in goal, going 38-20-3, the second best in the NHL, with a 2.75 GAA, an .897 save percentage, and two shutouts.
Although I think this ends up being a solid series that probably ends up going six games with competitive matchups each game, I think the experience of the Golden Knights, their star players on offense, and how hot they’ve been to close out the regular season under Torts gets them the series win and I wouldn’t be surprised if they have a nice run. I’ll take them to win the series for 1.5 units.
The totals in this game are a complete toss up to me. Of the three games they played i the regular season, the under went 2-1. The Mammoth slightly trended over, with the over going 41-39-3 in their games, and the total in Knights games went 40-40-3. I’d very slightly lean the overs, but I’m definitely not touching it in Game 1.
On the player prop side, I’m pretty much just looking at point props for Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Mark Stone on the Vegas side and just Clayton Keller on the Mammoth side.
I like Vegas to win Game 1 tonight in the Fortress and I’ll take them for a unit at home. I’ll also parlay Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, Mitch Marner, and Clayton Keller to each get a point for half a unit.
Series Bets
1.5u Vegas Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Game 1 Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (-160)
.5u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mark Stone/Mitch Marner/Clayton Keller 1+ point each (+192)
PS: I know I’m posting this on Monday after Game 1’s already over, but I wrote it yesterday afternoon and was pretty busy at the Sabres incredible win last night to publish it. I tweeted my plays for this one anyway.
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