This should be a very fun second round series in the Pacific Division between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Anaheim Ducks, after both teams played really good first round series.
The Ducks swept the regular season series between these teams, going 3-0 in those games with two overtime wins, all with 4-3 scores. In the first game between these teams on November 8th in Vegas, the Golden Knights came back from a 3-1 deficit in the third period to force overtime, with Jacob Trouba winning it 4-3 in overtime on the road. In Anaheim for the second game on November 22nd, this time it was the Ducks coming back twice with an electric five goal first period of that game. Vegas got out to a 2-0 lead in the first 4:37 of the game, but the Ducks quickly tied it up, before Thomas Hertl gave the Knights a 3-2 lead in the first. In the second period, Troy Terry tied it up, then Cutter Gauthier once again won it 4-3 for the Ducks at home in overtime. In the last regular season between these teams in Anaheim once again on February 1st, the Ducks got off to a 3-0 lead early, 4:32 into the second period with two goals by Chris Kreider, and although the Golden Knights fought back, Anaheim completed the sweep of the regular season series with a 4-3 win at home.
The Golden Knights had plenty of their struggles this season, as the whole Pacific Division was pretty weak this season. They were quite disappointing with the way they played this season, especially when you look at how good that lineup is. In the midst of a losing run where they looked like crap at the end of March, Vegas fired head coach Bruce Cassidy, who led them to a Stanley Cup win three years ago and hired John Tortorella as their new interim head coach. Under Torts, the Knights went 7-0-1 in their last eight games, to win the Pacific with a 39-26-17 record on a ten game point streak, two points ahead of the Oilers.
The first round as the Knights took on the first Wild Card Utah Mammoth was a ton of fun to watch. The Mammoth started Game 1 looking pretty good, but fell apart in the third period to lose 4-2 on the road with Vegas coming alive in the third period, with captain Mark Stone tying the game up in the third on the power play, Nic Dowd giving the Knights a lead less than two minutes later and the Russian cigarette machine, Ivan Barbashev capping it off with an empty netter. Utah bounced back in Game 2 on the road to knot up the series with a late goal by Logan Cooley to win it 3-2 and take home ice in the series. The Mammoth won 4-2 at home in Game 3 for the first ever NHL playoff game at the Delta Center, getting out to a 4-0 lead early and riding that with a fantastic 30 save night for Karel Vejmelka, with an impressive .938 save percentage as Utah got outshot 32-12. The Golden Knights answered back in Game 5, blowing an early 3-0 lead with four straight goals for the Mammoth at home, then winning it late, with just 52 seconds left in the first overtime with one of the original misfits, Shea Theodore scoring the game winner to tie the series with a 5-4 win on the road for Vegas. Game 6 was spectacular, with teams trading goals all game. The Mammoth took a 4-3 lead with two goals in a row in the third period, but Vegas tied it up to force overtime with Pavel Dorofeyev’s hat trick goal with just 53 seconds left in regulation. After a scoreless overtime period, Brett Howden ended the game, getting the Knights a 5-4 win at home in double overtime, shorthanded, set up by a good play on the wall by Mitch Marner.
Vegas was a little bit better than league average on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they averaged 3.22 goals per game, ranking 14th in the NHL, on an average of 29 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) in the league and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Knights’ power play was pretty good, scoring at a 24.6% rate, the sixth-best in the NHL. The star players led the way for Vegas this year. Jack Eichel led them with 90 points, 27 goals, and 63 assists. Mitch Marner added in 80 points, 24 goals, and 56 points. Captain Mark Stone had 73 points, 28 goals, and 45 assists in just 60 games, and Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals for the second year in a row with 37.
Defensively the Golden Knights were pretty good, allowing the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.95 goals per game, on an average of just 24.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the just the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.69), trailing just the Senators and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. The Vegas penalty kill unit was very good at 81.4%, ranking sixth in the NHL. The goaltending for the Knights had their issues at times. Carter Hart, who was signed halfway into the season, was 11-3-3, with a 2.71 GAA and .891 save percentage. Adin Hill, their Cup winning goalie, went 10-9-6, with a 3.04 GAA, an .871 save percentage, and a shutout. Akira Schmid actually played the most games for them this year, going 16-10-6, with a 2.59 GAA, a .893 save percentage, and two shutouts.
The Ducks got into the three seed over the Kings (who are facing the President’s Trophy winning Avalanche in the first round) with a really solid season, going 43-33-6, making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, a point behind the Oilers for home ice. All their young stars were a ton of fun to watch this year, leading them to the playoffs and I think this team has a ton of potential to be very good in the future. They had a few great runs this year, but also some pretty bad losing streaks, limping into the playoffs with just two wins in their last ten games.
I didn’t think that Anaheim would be able to keep up with Connor McDavid, Leon Draisaitl and the Oilers in their first round matchup, but I did think a lot of people were underestimating the Ducks going into that series, expecting it to be a long, solid series. I stayed off betting the series winner, since I thought Edmonton was too expensive at -240, which turned out to be the right move, just betting the series game by game. The Oilers won a tight Game 1 at home with a 4-3 on a late goal by Kasperi Kapanen. The Ducks then rattled off three straight wins, winning 6-4 on the road in Game 2 to take home ice in the series, dominating in a 7-4 win at home in Game 3 with four third period goals, then winning 4-3 in overtime in Game 4, coming back from an early 2-0 deficit to win on Ryan Poehling’s “controversial” (absolutely a goal, I don’t get the uproar on this one) OT winner. The Oilers came out hot in Game 5, scoring three goals in the first ten minutes of the game, making my over that I hammered look great, but then the action died out, as Edmonton stifled the Ducks, only allowing a goal for the first under to hit in this series with a 4-1 win for the Oilers. In Game 6 at home in Anaheim for their second chance to close out the series, the Ducks played great early, getting off to a 3-1 lead after the first period. Late in the second, Troy Terry pretty much finished the series, making it a 4-1 game with just 47 seconds left in the second. The Oilers made it a game again with Vasily Podkolzin making it 4-2, 1:13 into the third, but the Ducks held off Edmonton, and Leo Carlsson ended the series with an empty netter to win it 5-2 for Anaheim.
Anaheim’s young offense was awesome this year. They scored an average of 3.23 goals per game, the 13th-most in the NHL, on an average of 30.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.17), behind just the Avs, Canes, and Lightning, and the twelfth-most high danger shots in the league. The Ducks power play wasn’t great, the tenth-worst in the NHL, scoring at just an 18.6% rate. Anaheim’s offense was led by all their young future superstars. Cutter Gauthier had 69 points, 41 goals, and 28 assists. Leo Carlsson had 67 points, 29 goals, and 39 assists. In just 61 games, Troy Terry had 19 goals and 38 assists for 57 points. On the back end, Jackson LaCombe led the team with 48 assists.
The Ducks were awful on the back end this season. They allowed the fourth-most goals in the NHL this year, only better than the Canucks, Leafs, and Sharks, giving up an average of 3.51 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They gave up the sixth-most expected goals (3.29) in the NHL per game and they gave up the 15th-fewest high danger shots. Anaheim was terrible on the penalty kill, the sixth-worst in the NHL at 76.4%. Lukas Dostal went 30-20-4, and wasn’t great, with a 3.1 GAA and an .888 save percentage.
I don’t particularly care that the Ducks won all three regular season games between these teams, the Golden Knights were playing a completely different style of hockey at that point under Bruce Cassidy than they are now under Torts. I like Vegas to win this series, with the experience that this team has had in the playoffs and a way better defense than Anaheim (and the Oilers for that matter). I do think this series likely goes six games, and wouldn’t really be shocked if it goes to Game 7, but the Knights should win it. I’ll lay the -190 on Vegas to win the series for 1.5 units. I like the series to go over 5.5 games, but the price on that is too expensive to bet on at -215, so I’ll stay off it.
I expect the games in this series to trend over. All three regular season matchups between these teams went over. The total in Knights games during the regular season went 40-40-3 and the over in Ducks games went 48-33-1. In the first round, the over hit pretty easily in five of the six games that Anaheim played agains the over and the over hit in five of the six games Vegas played against the Mammoth.
I like several player props in this series, especially since I think these games end up trending over with plenty of goals. On the Vegas side I’ll be looking at Jack Eichel, Mark Stone, and Mitch Marner to get points, and on the Ducks side I’ll be looking at Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, Troy Terry, and Jackson LaCombe (who had a goal and eight assists in the first round against Edmonton) to get points, and I’ll probably look at Jack LaCombe assists as well.
Expecting the Golden Knights to win this series, I like them to win Game 1 at home tomorrow night in the Fortress and I’ll take them for a unit. I like the over as well, expecting plenty of goals, which I’ll take for a unit too. I’ll take a bunch of player props in this game too. I’ll parlay Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner to each get a point for half a unit. I’ll also individually take Mark Stone, Leo Carlsson, Cutter Gauthier, and Troy Terry to each get a point for half a unit each and Jackson LaCombe to get an assist for half a unit.
Series Bets
1.5u Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Game 1 Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (-166)
1u Golden Knights/Ducks over 6.5 (+105)
.5u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mitch Marner 1+ point each (-130)
.5u Mark Stone over 0.5 point (-166)
.5u Leo Carlsson over 0.5 point (-160)
.5u Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 point (-154)
.5u Troy Terry over 0.5 point (-145)
.5u Jackson LaCombe over 0.5 assist (-105)
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