I crushed the last two days of the NHL playoffs, going 6-2 to win 4.61 units on Friday night and then 2-0 on Game 1 of Canes/Flyers last night to win another 2.5 units. Tonight we have Game 7 of Lightning vs. Habs and the second round of Avalanche vs. Wild starting. Let’s win again!
Game 7: Lightning vs. Canadiens (6:00)
The two best words in sports, Game 7. This series has been spectacular, and with my Sabres beating the Bruins in six games, I’m thrilled that this one went seven games to give us an extra three days of rest to await if we’ll play the Habs or the Lightning in the second round. I think I’d rather face the Lightning, who are older, have more injuries, Kucherov hasn’t been spectacular this series, and we played them better this year during the regular season, but regardless of who wins this series, the second round won’t be easy for us. This series has been spectacular. Every single game has been tight, with the first three going to overtime and the Lightning tying up the series in Game 4 late in the third period to win 3-2 on Brandon Hagel’s second goal in a row with less than five minutes left in regulation. Game 5 was close as well in Tampa, with the Canadiens winning 3-2 on the road on Alex Texier’s goal early in the third period, in a game they were outshot 40-24. Game 6 on Friday night was the closest of the series, with a double shutout for Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobes but having shutouts through regulation, going to overtime scoreless, with Gage Goncalves getting the Lightning the win in OT to force Game 7 tonight. I think Game 7 comes down to goaltending, and I’d slightly lean Tampa wins it at home with Vazzy in goal, the best goalie in the playoffs, but don’t like it enough to bet on, especially with it priced at -170. I love the under in this game. All but Game 1 of this series went under, and Game 7s always trend under. Even at an insane -170, I’ll take it for 2 units. I’ll stay off any player props in this game, expecting it to be a low scoring grind. Should be a great game to cap off this series!
Game 1: Avalanche vs. Wild (9:00)
As I said breaking down this series in depth earlier today, I know everyone thinks the Avalanche are far and away the favorite to win the Cup, and I know that a lot of people would think this would be an easy series for the Avs, but I expect this to be a pretty solid grind of the series. I do think Colorado’s the better team and should win the series, especially coming off a way easier first round series than the Wild did, but I could see this going to six or seven games. The price on the Avs to win the series at -205 is too expensive for me, and I don’t want to limit myself to six games, so I’ll play this series game by game and won’t take any series props here. I think the winner of this series ends up going to the Cup Finals. Game 1 tonight is a bit closer of a matchup than I’d expect with the rest vs. rust factor here. The Avs have had an entire week off to get prepared for this series, so I could see a slight slow start for them tonight to get back at game speed, but I still like Colorado to win here at home. I’ll take the Avs in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I was hoping for a better price on this, but for half a unit, I’ll parlay Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point. I’ll also take Quinn Hughes to get over 0.5 an assist for half a unit.
Series Bets
2.5u Carolina Hurricanes to win series in 6 games or less (-150)
Bets
2u Lightning/Canadiens under 5.5 (-170)
.5u Avalanche in regulation (-120)
.5u parlay: MacKinnon/Necas/Makar/Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes 1+ point each (+385)
.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-142)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 67-75 (-9.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 2-0 (+2.5 units)
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A Town's Zone 