This should be a fantastic second round series in the Central Division with the President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche facing the third best team in the West, the Minnesota Wild. The Avs swept the Kings pretty easily in the first round, while the Wild battled out a tough series against the Stars, beating them in six games. I’m expecting this to be an electric series!

These teams tied the regular season series, going 2-2, with each team winning easily on the road once, and both teams winning 3-2 in shootouts at home. In the first game on November 28th for a matinee in Minnesota, the teams traded goals, with the Wild winning 3-2 in a shootout at home in a great game. The Avalanche answered back in Minnesota on December 21st with a 5-1 blowout on the road in a three point night for Cale Makar with two goals from Nathan MacKinnon. On the road in Colorado on February 2nd, the Wild answered back with a big road win, beating the Avs 5-2 with two empty netters form Matt Boldy to win it. In the last game, a matinee in Colorado, the Avalanche got their shootout win, with Nathan MacKinnon getting them a 3-2 win at home.

Colorado was far and away the best team in the league this year, clinching the President’s Trophy relatively early in this spectacular season. They went 55-16-11, the best team in the NHL by nine points over the Stars. They have been the Cup favorite all year to the point that it’ll almost be a disappointing season if they don’t lift Lord Stanley for the second time in four years. They have top tier stars on that team at both ends of the ice and have so much depth that there really aren’t any weak spots in that lineup.

As expected, the Avalanche dominated their first round matchup against the second Wild Card LA Kings, sweeping them, although I was impressed with how the Kings kept games close and grinded out these tight games. Game 1 was a boring grind, with the Avs winning 2-1 at home, and Scott Wedgewood holding a shutout in his first playoff game until Artemi Panarin got a power play goal with just 2:22 left in regulation. Game 2 was closer, with no goals through the first 53 minutes of the game, with the Kings getting out to a 1-0 lead with just 6:56 left in regulation, but the captain Gabriel Landeskog tied it up with 3:35 left in regulation to send it to overtime, before Nick Roy got the Avs the 2-1 win in OT. The Avs got a 4-2 win in Game 3 to put the Kings on the brink of elimination when the series shifted to LA, getting up to a 3-1 lead with a shorthanded goal by Artturi Lehkonen in the third, and then after Adrian Kempe scored on the power play to make it close with 4:03 left, Brock Nelson capped off the game with an empty netter. With a chance to complete the sweep in Game 4, the Avalanche took full advantage of that opportunity, dominating their way to a 6-1 blowout on the road to sweep LA.

The Avs were the best team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, playing spectacular hockey all year. Offensively, they led the league in scoring, lighting the lamp for an average of 3.63 goals per game on a league-leading average of 33.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.62) in the NHL and the second-most high danger shots in the league, trailing just the Canes. Colorado’s only issue offensively were their struggles on the power play this year, scoring at just a 17.1% rate, the sixth-worst in the NHL. Nathan MacKinnon led the way for the Avalanche this year in a Hart Trophy worth season with 127 points, winning the Rocket Richard with 53 goals, and 74 assists. Martin Necas hit the 100 point make as well with 38 goals and 62 assists, while Cale Makar, the best defenseman in the NHL, had over a point per game on the back end, with 79 points and 59 assists.

Defensively Colorado was the best in the league as well by a significant margin, allowing the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.4 goals per game, on an average of 26.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78) and the sixth-fewest high danger shots. The Avs had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL as well at 81.9%. Both of their goalies were fantastic. Mackenzie Blackwood’s projected to start Game 1 and went 23-10-2, with a 2.51 GAA, a .904 save percentage, and three shutouts. Scott Wedgwood was even better successfully, going 31-6-6, with a league-leading 2.02 GAA, a league-leading .921 save percentage, and four shutouts.

The Minnesota Wild got off to a slower start to the year with a 3-6-3 start, but ended up having an awesome season, finishing the year easily in third in the Central, going 46-24-12 this season. They made a huge acquisition relatively early in the year, acquiring one of the best defenseman in the league, getting Quinn Hughes from the Vancouver Canucks, averaging an assist per game after heading to Minnesota.

The first round between the Wild and the Stars was a hell of a series, a very tough series and it sucks that with the way the playoffs are setup right now, that the second and third best teams in the West had to battle it out in the first round just to go on and play the President’s Trophy winning Avs. It was an impressive series win for the Wild, knocking off the Stars in six games. Game 1 was a complete blowout win on the road for the Wild, as Minnesota got out to a 4-0 lead in the first 26 minutes of the game, going on to win it 6-1 on the road to start the series. The Stars had to answer back at home in Game 2 and did, grinding out a 4-2 win at home to tie up the series in a pretty tight game, capped off by Wyatt Johnston’s empty netter. Game 3 was a grind, going to overtime with Wyatt Johnston winning it for Dallas on the road to take back home ice, on the power play in double overtime. Game 4 went to OT as well, as Matt Boldy was the hero for Minnesota late in the first overtime as they won 3-2 at home to tie up the series again. Game 5 was a tight game, with the Wild holding off the Stars’ comeback effort before Kirill the Thrill capped it off with a hard working empty netter to win 4-2 on the road to put the Stars on the brink of elimination. In the closing Game 6 of the series, the game was close, tied up through the second period before Quinn Hughes scored his second goal of the game for his third point of the game with 9:22 left in regulation to take the lead, then capped off by two empty netters from Matt Boldy to get the Wild their first series win in eleven years.

The Wild were solid offensively this season, scoring an average of 3.27 goals per game, the tenth-most in the NHL, on an average of 29.4 shots per game. They’ve generated the eleventh-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.17) and the ninth-most high danger shots in the league. The Minnesota power play was great, third in the NHL behind just the Oilers and the Stars, scoring at a 25.2% rate. Their offense was led by Kirill Kaprizov (89 points, 45 goals, 44 assists) and Matt Boldy (85 points, 42 goals, 43 assists), while Quinn Hughes led them with 48 assists in 48 games.

Minnesota was good on the back end too. They allowed the fourth-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.87 goals per game, trailing just the Avs, Stars, and Lightning. They gave up the eighth-fewest expected goals (2.9) in the NHL per game and they gave up the third-fewest high danger shots. The Wild were around league average on the penalty kill, ranking 17th in the league at 79.8%. Both young goaltenders for the Wild were good this year. Jesper Wallstedt, “the wall of St. Paul”, was 18-9-6, with a 2.61 GAA, a second-best in the league .916 save percentage, and four shutouts. Filip Gustavsson was 28-15-6, with a 2.69 GAA, .904 save percentage and four shutouts as well.

I know everyone thinks the Avalanche are far and away the favorite to win the Cup, and I know that a lot of people would think this would be an easy series for the Avs, but I expect this to be a pretty solid grind of the series. I do think Colorado’s the better team and should win the series, especially coming off a way easier first round series than the Wild did, but I could see this going to six or seven games. The price on the Avs to win the series at -205 is too expensive for me, and I don’t want to limit myself to six games, so I’ll play this series game by game and won’t take any series props here. I think the winner of this series ends up going to the Cup Finals.

The totals are a toss up for me in this series. During the regular season, the Avalanche trended under, with the under in their games going 47-31-4, while the Wild trended over, with the over going 44-35-3 in their games. In the first round, the over 5.5 went 2-2 in the Avs series against the Kings, while the over hit in five of the six games in the Wild vs. Stars series. I’d slightly lean the overs, but I’ll lay off it in Game 1 and evaluate it as the series goes on. 

I like several player props in the games in this series for both teams. I like point props on Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar on the Avs side and on Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes on the Wild side. Quinn Hughes to get an assist in each game was quite profitable in the first round as well, as he averaged an assist a game though the regular season as well, so I’ll be back on that too. 

Game 1 tonight is a bit closer of a matchup than I’d expect with the rest vs. rust factor here. The Avs have had an entire week off to get prepared for this series, so I could see a slight slow start for them tonight to get back at game speed, but I still like Colorado to win here at home. I’ll take the Avs in regulation for half a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it. I was hoping for a better price on this, but for half a unit, I’ll parlay Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point. I’ll also take Quinn Hughes to get over 0.5 an assist for half a unit.

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Game 1 Bets

.5u Avalanche in regulation (-120)

.5u parlay: MacKinnon/Necas/Makar/Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes 1+ point each (+385)

.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-142)

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