The second round of the Stanley Cup Playoffs begins tonight with this Metro Division matchup between the top seed in the East, the Carolina Hurricanes, the top seed in the Eastern Conference who swept the Ottawa Senators in the first round, and the #3 seed Philadelphia Flyers, who with the worst record of the teams to make the playoffs in the East, knocked off their in-state rival Pittsburgh Penguins in the first round in six. This should be an interesting series to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals.
During the regular season, the Canes went 3-1 against the Flyers this season, with all four games going to overtime. In the first game between them back on October 11th, it was a tight game that went to overtime on Travis Sanheim’s goal to tie it for Philly with four minutes left in regulation before Seth Jarvis won it in OT at home. The second game in Philly went to a shootout, with the Canes winning 4-3 on the road on December 13th. The next night in the second half of a back to back, home and home, Trevor Zegras tied the game on the road in Carolina, forcing overtime with just 1:52 left in regulation but the Hurricanes won it, once again in a shootout. The fourth game to close out the season series between them on April 13th in Philly, the Flyers came back from a 2-0 first period deficit to take it to overtime again, and clinched their spot in the playoffs for the first time since 2020, with Tyson Foerster winning it for Philly in a shootout, avoiding the season sweep.
The Carolina Hurricanes have had a fantastic season, winning the Eastern Conference,. They finished the season with a 52-22-5 record, cruising to the Metro Division win, 15 points ahead of the #2 seed Pittsburgh Penguins. They were great on both ends of the ice all season, winning the East, four points ahead of my Buffalo Sabres.
Carolina’s dominant defense got through a first round sweep of the Ottawa Senators, knocking off the second Wild Card team in four games. The Hurricanes didn’t trail for even a second of that series. Every game of the series was such a tight grind, with four low scoring close games, but the Canes figured out a way to get the wins in all four. After winning a close Game 1 with a 2-0 shutout, they followed it up winning 3-2 in double overtime (twice, after the first game winner got pulled off the board in Game 2 with Jordan Martinook scoring the game winner that actually counted, 13:53 into the second overtime period. As the series shifted to Ottawa for Game 3, the Hurricanes grinding out a 2-1 win on the road to put the Sens on the brink of elimination. Then to close out the series in Game 4, getting a 4-2 win with two empty netters to win it.
The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they were second in scoring behind just the Avalanche, averaging 3.55 goals per game on an average of 2.88 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.6) in the NHL (also just behind Colorado) and the most high danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play was great this year, scoring at just a 24.9% rate, the fourth-best in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (80 points, 53 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).
Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.88 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 23.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.82) and the ninth-fewest high danger shots. The Hurricanes had the eleventh-best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 80.6%. Brandon Bussi, who was claimed off waivers became a star and a great story in goal this year, going an impressive 31-6-2, fourth-best in the NHL, with a sixth-best 2.47 GAA, and a .895 save percentage, with two shutouts this year. Starting in goal though in Game 1 will be the veteran Freddy Andersen. Although he’s had plenty of experience, he wasn’t great this year, going 16-14-5, with a 3.05 GAA, and a .874 save percentage.
The Philadelphia Flyers were the last team in the East to clinch their playoff spot with a 43-27-12 record, beating out the Islanders and Blue Jackets for that last spot after the Bruins and Senators had already clinched both Wild Card spots in the East out of the Atlantic Division. Philly started the season much better than expected, going 14-7-3 in their first 24 games, but then came crumbling down. The Flyers had just a 3.8% chance of making the playoffs after the Olympics break, but rallied big time to close out the season and get in, going 18-6-1 in their last 25 games to get in, ending the regular season on a three game win streak with six wins in their last seven games.
Going into their first round series against the Penguins, I thought there was no way the Flyers would win that series, but I was completely wrong there, especially early in the series. Philly won Game 1 on the road, 3-2 in a relatively close win, holding off the Penguins comeback effort after the Flyers went up 3-1 in the third period. They Flyers dominated Game 2 with a 27 save shutout for Dan Vladar on the road to beat the Pens 3-0. In Game 3 at home in Philly, the Flyers dominated the game with a 5-2 win at home. Through all three of those games, I was shocked how little scoring chances and quality looks the Penguins were limited to. The Penguins made a goalie change and played way better in Game 4 with a 4-2 win on the road, then grinded out a 3-2 win in a very tight game at home in Game 5. After the Penguins went up 2-0 early in the second period, Philly battled back to tie it up, and just 2:06 later, veteran legend Kris Letang scored the eventual game winner to win it 3-2 and take the series back to Philadelphia. Then Game 6 was the closest of the series even though the Pens pretty much dominated regulation, with a double shutout by Vladar and Arturs Silovs, going to overtime tied up with a scoreless game, then Cam York ended the series with a goal 17:32 into OT to win it 1-0.
The Flyers weren’t great on either end of the ice this season. Offensively, they scored an average of just 2.93 goals per game, the twelfth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of only 25.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the eighth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.88) and the eighth-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Philly power play was the worst in the NHL, scoring at just 15.7% rate. Travis Konecny led them in scoring with 68 points, 27 goals, and 41 assists with Owen Tippett leading them with 28 goals and shootout star Trevor Zegras adding in 67 points (26 goals and 41 assists).
Philly was actually good on the back end though. They allowed the ninth-fewest goals in the NHL this year, an average of just 2.92 goals per game on an average of 25.5 shots allowed per game. They gave up the third-fewest expected goals (2.77) in the NHL per game, behind just Vegas and Ottawa and they gave up the fifth-fewest high danger shots. The Flyers struggled on the penalty kill at 77.6%, eleventh worst in the league. Dan Vladar was solid in goal this year for Philly, going 29-14-7 with a 2.42 GAA, third best in the NHL, and a .906 save percentage.
I don’t see the Flyers making magic again in this series to advance past the Eastern Conference regular season champions. I didn’t expect Philly to play as well as they did in the first three games of the second round, not allowing the Penguins to get any quality looks, but the Hurricanes are a far better team defensively. The way the Canes play on the back end will cut out the scoring chances that Philly’s offense, who hasn’t been great this year will be able to get. I fully expect Carolina to win this series, likely in five games. I wouldn’t be shocked if Philly pulls off forcing Game 6 and would be even less surprised if the Canes sweep them for the second round in a row to head back to the Eastern Conference Finals. The price on the series at -250 feels too expensive to bet on, so I’ll just take them to win it in six games or less for 2.5 units. I considered betting them to win it in five or less, but the +160 isn’t a good enough price for me to bet it.
I’d lean the under in this series, with good defensive play and goaltending for both teams. In the first round, the under hit in four of the six games between the Flyers and the Penguins, while the under hit in three of the four games of the Canes first round series against the Senators, with the only over coming with two empty netters and three goals in the last 2:22 of the closing game. During the regular season, the over went 44-37-1 in Canes games while the under went 39-38-5 in Flyers games. I’d expect a limited number of chances in this series and low scoring games, so I’ll be betting the under.
The only player props I kind of like in this series are point props on Sebastian Aho and Seth Jarvis for the Canes, but i don’t love them all that much.
Expecting the Hurricanes to win this series pretty easily, I fully expect them to win Game 1 at home tonight and I’ll take them in regulation for a unit (the -205 on the moneyline is too expensive for me), and I’ll also take the under for 1.5 units. I’ll stay off player props in Game 1.
Series Bets
2.5u Carolina Hurricanes to win series in 6 games or less
Game 1 Bets
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-150)
1.5u Hurricanes/Flyers under 5.5 (-110)
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