I had a nice bounce back night on Avs vs. Wild in Game 2 last night, going 4-2 to win 2.82 units. Let’s crush it again on tonight’s two NHL Playoff games with the Sabres opening the second round against the Habs and Game 2 of Vegas vs. Anaheim.
Game 1: Sabres vs. Canadiens (7:00)
Big series here in the Atlantic Division for the second round, that as a huge Buffalo Sabres fan makes me very nervous as we face the Montreal Canadiens. This should be a fantastic battle of a series to punch a ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals. As I broke down in my blog earlier previewing the series in depth, I am very nervous about this series as a Sabres fan. Yes, we got through the Bruins in six games in the first round, but there were still absolutely some concerns there. The Sabres looked dead through the majority of the first two games of that series, playing brutal and getting shut out through the 54 minutes of those games. We didn’t really have any scoring depth at all, with the majority of the offensive production in that series coming from the top line of Tuch, Tage, and Krebs and then our offensive defenseman. That won’t work to keep up with the high powered, incredible offense that Montreal has. That line of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky is insane and I’m quite concerned with the Sabres ability to hang in with them. Montreal’s defense is big and physical and came up big against the Lightning. I didn’t think Jakob Dobas was great this season, but he was fantastic in the first round against Tampa, with a 2.03 GAA and .923 save percentage. I hate to say it, but I’d lean the Habs win this series in seven games, but there’s absolutely no chance that I’d bet against my team. I’m expecting every game of this series to be a complete, stressful grind. I considered betting the series to go exactly six games, but at +180, it’s definitely not worth it, especially since I think it ends up going seven (which I’m not betting) and there aren’t any over 5.5 games props with the series total games line set at 6.5. Let’s Go Sabres! I’m nervous about Game 1 tonight, but I’d lean the Sabres win at home. Not enough to bet it though, since I’m already going to be rooting on my team hard (obviously I’m bringing quite a bit more emotion into this series and these games. I’d lean the over, just based off how these teams played during the regular season, but not enough to bet it in Game 1 tonight. I’ll just stick with player props tonight. I’ll go with a half unit parlay on Nick Suzuki and Tage Thompson to each get a point, then a half unit each individually on Alex Tuch, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky to get a point. I’ll also take a small .2 unit parlay on all five of those guys to each get a point at a nice +605 price. Let’s Go Buffalo!!!
Game 2: Golden Knights vs. Ducks (9:30)
Game 1 of this series on Monday night was a lot of fun. These teams battled, with a fantastic night in goal for Carter Hart, as the Ducks outshot Vegas 34-22, but the Golden Knights got the 3-1 win at home. The Knights lead till late, until Mikael Granlund tied it up with 6:03 left in regulation, but just 1:05 later, right after a questionable no-call, Pavel Dorofeyev set up a sick pass to Ivan Barbashev to get Vegas the lead back, capped off by a Mitch Marner empty netter. Not the best game for the Golden Knights and they still found a way to get a really solid win. I like the Knights to win again tonight at home and I’ll take them for a unit. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it after Game 1 was so tight. I loaded up on player props in Game 1 and it didn’t work out great with such a low scoring game. I considered taking point props on all my usual guys in this game, but I think I’m better off staying off them in Game 2 and evaluating how to bet them all as this series continues.
Series Bets
2.5u Carolina Hurricanes to win series in 6 games or less (-150)
1.5u Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
.5u parlay: Tage Thompson/Nick Suzuki 1+ point each (+103)
.5u Alex Tuch over 0.5 point (-160)
.5u Cole Caufield over 0.5 point (-145)
.5u Juraj Slafkovsky over 0.5 point (-130)
.2u parlay: Thompson/Tuch/Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky 1+ point each (+605)
1u Golden Knights ML (-166)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 68-75 (-7.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 12-9 (+4.38 units)
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A Town's Zone 