Big series here in the Atlantic Division for the second round, that as a huge Buffalo Sabres fan makes me very nervous as we face the Montreal Canadiens. This should be a fantastic battle of a series to punch a ticket to the Eastern Conference Finals.

During the regular season, these teams split the four games they played, each winning once at home and once on the road. In the first game on October 10th in Montreal, the Sabres started off slow and took a 4-2 loss on the road in a solid, fun game. The Sabres started slow, with Montreal dominating the first period, but after that, I thought Buffalo played pretty decent hockey to stay in the game and make it competitive till the end. We poured it on, but the Habs are a good team and held it off. The Sabres answered back at home in the second game they played in Buffalo on January 15th for 05-06 re-union night (a season that is very reminiscent to me to this year’s team), playing fantastic for a 5-3 win at home, led by a five point, hat trick night for Tage Thompson. The following week at the Bell Centre in Montreal on January 22nd, the Sabres started hot on the road, getting a 3-0 lead early in the second period on their way to a 4-2 win, where I didn’t think we played all that well after that, relying on a fantastic night from Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen to hang on for the win. Through the game, Montreal outshot the Sabres 34-17, pouring it on, especially in their comeback effort in the second period, but UPL was fantastic in goal, making some great, key saves in a 32 save, .941 save percentage performance. The Habs tied up the season series in the last game between us on January 31st in Montreal, coming back from a 2-1 deficit in the third period, winning 4-2 on the road. Despite the loss, I thought the Sabres played pretty good in that game. We outshot the Habs 39-31 and out-chanced them 31-19, yet couldn’t score in the first or third period. This was going to be a tough game, and it was. The Sabres played hard to keep up with the Canadiens, but it just wasn’t enough.

The Sabres started off the year, just like it’s been for 15 years, looking horrendous early in the season. This year started terrible again for the Sabres as expected, as I referenced in my first blog of this season as we got shut out 4-0 at home by the Rangers to open the year. I thought we’d be tanking for Gavin McKenna. It wasn’t a good first couple of months, being in 29th place overall with a 7-9-4 record on November 21st, ranking 24th in goals (2.85) and 27th in goals against (3.55). Terrible play on both ends of the ice. In December we fired the GM Kevyn Adams, a long overdue move and ended up going on a ten game win streak, tying a franchise record and bringing the magic back. That was the turnaround and since November 21st had the best record in the league, going 43-14-4 after that, jumping up to finish the season fourth overall with a 50-23-9 record. The magic was back, as we led the league in goals (3.66) and were third in goals against (2.72) with great play in goal from the tandem of Alex Lyon and UPL. We made the playoffs, ending the drought with our first post-season appearance in 15 years, and beat out the Lightning and Canadiens to win the Atlantic Division, which was the hardest it has been since the four division format was introduced in the NHL in 2013.

The Sabres in their first playoffs series since 2011, had a roller coaster of a series in the first round against the Bruins, winning it in six games, winning our first series since 2007. I thought we were lucky to win Game 1 with a spectacular comeback effort, coming back from a 2-0 deficit with just 6:46 left in regulation, scoring four straight goals to win 4-2 at home. The offense couldn’t get anything going for the majority of this game, with no lanes to shoot through. The power play looked absolutely pathetic every time the Bruins had a guy in the box. Overall though I thought we played good, especially in the second period. Very physical game, with the Sabres getting a season high 53 hits, outhitting the Bruins 53-28. We outshot Boston 38-20, and with four goals in the span of just 6:46, became the first team in NHL postseason history to win in regulation time after trailing by two or more goals to zero with eight minutes or fewer remaining in regulation. In Game 2, we got killed at home in a 4-2 loss that I thought was worse than the score showed. We were awful in that game, once again getting shut out by Jeremy Swayman for the first 54 minutes of the game as the Bruins tied up the series, with horrendous goals given up by UPL for the first two of the game. I was quite nervous heading into Game 3 in Boston, but we played great, winning 3-1 to take home ice back in the series. We needed that win so bad after how poorly we played through the first two games of this series. Big. Alex Lyon was in goal with UPL backing him up and played nice, sound hockey in goal and I felt like we controlled that game throughout. The Sabres dominated Game 4 on the road, getting out to an early 4-0 lead in the first period and blowing out the Bruins 6-1 to put them on the brink of elimination, with Alex Lyon shutting out Boston until there was just 40 seconds left in the game. Fantastic win. In Game 5 as the series shifted back to Buffalo, I thought we played well in the tightest game of the series, with Rasmus Dahlin scoring early for the Sabres in the first period, finally breaking the over a month drought of scoring on the power play, but the Bruins played with more desperation, with Jeremy Swayman playing fantastic in goal in a bounce back effort and David Pastrnak getting off on a breakaway in overtime to win it 2-1 for Boston and extend the series. To close out the series in Boston in Game 6, the Sabres scored early, getting a 2-0 lead in the first period on the road, and held on as the Bruins played with desperation again to keep their season alive, but Buffalo was able to cap off the series with a great 4-1 win in Boston.

Buffalo ended up being very good on both ends of the ice. Offensively, we were fifth in scoring, trailing just the Avs, Canes, Penguins and Lightning, scoring an average of 3.45 goals per game on an average of 28.1 shots per game. They’ve generated the 15th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (31.2) in the NHL and the ninth-fewest high danger shots in the league. The Sabres weren’t great on the power play, the twelfth-worst in the league, scoring at a 19.5% clip. Tage Thompson, who’s been here for most of the drought, acquired in the Ryan O’Reilly trade years ago, led the team with 81 points, 40 goals, and 41 assists. Former first overall pick defenseman for us, Rasmus Dahlin, who went through a ton personally this year, led the team with 55 assists. Alex Tuch had 66 points with 33 goals and 33 assists, and several other guys had career years.

Defensively the Sabres were good as well, allowing an average of just 2.93 goals per game, the tenth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 29.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve have given up a bunch of chances though, the twelfth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.19) and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Buffalo penalty kill was very good, killing penalties at an 81.9% rate, ranking fourth in the NHL. Both goalies were good, with Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen going 22-9-3 with a ninth-best 2.52 GAA, and sixth-best .910 save percentage, and a shutout. Alex Lyon, who’s injured, went 20-10-4 with a 2.77 GAA, a .907 save percentage, and three shutouts.

The Habs were very good this year and a ton of fun to watch, with a lot of high-energy fun games. They finished the regular season tied with the Lightning in points with a 48-24-10 record, led by electric play by their young stars.

Every single game of the first round between the Lightning and Canadiens was so close, going to Game 7 for the Habs to close it out on the road, and four of those first round games going to overtime. What a grind of a series. Game 1 in Tampa was the only high scoring game of the series, with the teams trading goals through the game, until Juraj Slafkovsky won it 4-3 in overtime on the road, 1:22 into OT on the power play. The Lightning answered back at home in Game 2, with it going to overtime once again, this time with J.J. Moser tying the series for Tampa in OT. The atmosphere in the Bell Centre looked insane in Game 3 as the tied series shifted to Montreal. That game went to overtime yet again, and young stud defenseman Lane Hutson won it 2:09 into OT for the Habs. The Lightning tied up the series in Game 4 with a 3-2 win on the road to take back home ice in the series on Brandon Hagel’s second goal in a row with less than five minutes left in regulation. Game 5 was close as well in Tampa, with the Canadiens winning 3-2 on the road on Alex Texier’s goal early in the third period, in a game they were outshot 40-24. Game 6 was the closest of the series, with a double shutout for Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobes both having shutouts through regulation, going to overtime scoreless, with Gage Goncalves getting the Lightning the win in OT to force Game 7. Game 7, the two best words in sports was insane. The Lightning dominated that game, playing incredible defensively. The Canadiens only generated nine shots on goal in the entire game, with none in the second period and only three in the third, but somehow one of those three shots in the third period ended up being the game winner as Alex Newhook scored with 8:53 left in regulation to take Montreal to the second round with a 2-1 win. Crazy game, and crazy series.

The Montreal offense was very good this season, scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 26.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.21) and the 15th-most high danger shots in the league. On the power play the Habs were pretty good at 23.1%, ranking tenth in the league. The line of Nick Suzuki (101 points, 29 goals, 72 assists), Cole Caufield (88 points, 51 goals, 37 assists), and Juraj Slafkovsky (73 points, 30 goals, 43 assists) was the best in hockey this season and young star defenseman Lane Hutson added in 78 points and 66 assists from the blue line.

The Canadiens struggled on the back end this season. They allowed the an average of 3.06 goals per game, ranking 16th in the league on an average of 27.8 shots per game. They gave up the seventh-most expected goals (3.27) in the NHL per game and they gave up the third-most high danger shots. The goaltending was a struggle for them. Young goalie Jakub Dobes went 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 save percentage while Sam Montembeault went 10-8-4 in his back up role with a lousy 3.43 GAA, and .872 save percentage.

I am very nervous about this series as a Sabres fan. Yes, we got through the Bruins in six games in the first round, but there were still absolutely some concerns there. The Sabres looked dead through the majority of the first two games of that series, playing brutal and getting shut out through the 54 minutes of those games. We didn’t really have any scoring depth at all, with the majority of the offensive production in that series coming from the top line of Tuch, Tage, and Krebs and then our offensive defenseman. That won’t work to keep up with the high powered, incredible offense that Montreal has. That line of Suzuki, Caufield, and Slafkovsky is insane and I’m quite concerned with the Sabres ability to hang in with them. Montreal’s defense is big and physical and came up big against the Lightning. I didn’t think Jakob Dobas was great this season, but he was fantastic in the first round against Tampa, with a 2.03 GAA and .923 save percentage. I hate to say it, but I’d lean the Habs win this series in seven games, but there’s absolutely no chance that I’d bet against my team. I’m expecting every game of this series to be a complete, stressful grind. I considered betting the series to go exactly six games, but at +180, it’s definitely not worth it, especially since I think it ends up going seven (which I’m not betting) and there aren’t any over 5.5 games props with the series total games line set at 6.5. Let’s Go Sabres!

I’d expect a lot of high scoring games in this series. During the four regular season matchups between these teams, all four games hit the over at 5.5 (I believe the total was 6.5 for at least some of those games though), with three of those games having 4-2 scores and the last one have a 5-3 score. During the regular season this year, the Sabres trended under, with the under going 41-38-3 in their games, while the Habs games trended over, with their overs going 45-34-3. During the first round, both teams trended under, with the under going 3-2-1 in the Sabres series against the Bruins and the 6-1 in the Habs series against Tampa.

On the player props, I’m mainly be targeting point props for Tage Thompson and Alex Tuch on the Sabres side, and Nick Suzuki, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky on the Habs side.

I’m nervous about Game 1 tonight, but I’d lean the Sabres win at home. Not enough to bet it though, since I’m already going to be rooting on my team hard (obviously I’m bringing quite a bit more emotion into this series and these games. I’d lean the over, just based off how these teams played during the regular season, but not enough to bet it in Game 1 tonight. I’ll just stick with player props tonight. I’ll go with a half unit parlay on Nick Suzuki and Tage Thompson to each get a point, then a half unit each individually on Alex Tuch, Cole Caufield, and Juraj Slafkovsky to get a point. I’ll also take a small .2 unit parlay on all five of those guys to each get a point at a nice +605 price.

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Game 1 Bets

.5u parlay: Tage Thompson/Nick Suzuki 1+ point each (+103)

.5u Alex Tuch over 0.5 point (-160)

.5u Cole Caufield over 0.5 point (-145)

.5u Juraj Slafkovsky over 0.5 point (-130)

.2u parlay: Thompson/Tuch/Suzuki/Caufield/Slafkovsky 1+ point each (+605)

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