Coming off cashing an easy win on Cam Young going wire to wire last week at Doral, this week the PGA Tour heads back to Quail Hallow for the Truist Championship. Let’s win again! (with a bonus bet on the Myrtle Beach Classic)
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7559 yards, one of the hardest courses on tour every year, nine of the eleven Par 4s are over 450 yards, the other two Par 4s are short and drivable (played almost as easy as the Par 5s), three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards, Par 5s are reachable in two by most of the field and you need to score on them, overseeded Bermuda grass, narrow to average width tree lined fairways, 61 bunkers and water in play on seven holes, very low fairways hit (~54% vs. 62% tour average), very high average driving distance here (~300 yards vs. tour average 284), rough isn’t too penal and missing fairways isn’t going to kill you, lot of right to left doglegs (which favors natural draw), slightly lower than tour average GIR % (~61% vs. 66%), average proximity from the rough here is the lowest on tour, average sized fast multitiered Poa Trivialis oversewed greens with some undulation, putting is very difficult here with consistently lowest make percentage of putts inside 10 feet
Tournament Notes
- This event was held at TPC Potomac in 2022 due to this course hosting the President’s Cup and at the Philadelphia Cricket Club last year due to this course hosting the PGA Championship last year, when Scottie Scheffler won
- This event did not take place at this course in 2017, since it hosted the 2017 PGA Championship in an even tougher setup than it usually has or in 2020 when it was cancelled during COVID
- The course underwent a major renovation in 2016, so it isn’t worth looking at the course history from before 2017
- When this course is setup for PGA Championships, it plays much harder with way higher rough, different tees making it even longer, tougher pin locations, etc.
- This course has the smallest gap between SG: OTT and Approach for the T10/T5/Winners, while it has one of the lowest SG: ARG numbers, around the green play here does not matter
- The Green Mile (holes 16-18) is the hardest closing stretch on tour
- Driving accuracy isn’t much a factor here since everyone misses the fairway, but distance does
- Since 2012, 7 of the 11 winners for the Wells Fargo Championship here had a T10 in one of the two previous years here (Clark, Homa, Ernst and Hahn were the ones that did not)
- 10 of the T13 at the PGA Championship here in 2017 gained at least 2.2 strokes OTT
- This event was moved up in the schedule last year to now be the week before the PGA Championship
- No cut event
- There has never been a repeat winner two years in a row here
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Driving Distance
Main proximity distance range on approach: 175+ yards (53.8%) with 31.2% from over 200 yards
Corollary Courses
- Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open) – Ton of crossover success here since they’re similar setups – long, tough courses
- Torrey Pines Golf Course (Farmers Insurance Open)
Field
72 golfers – Fantastic field strength for a signature event (without Scottie Scheffler in the field)
Defending Champion (Philadelphia Cricket Club): Sepp Straka (-16)
Runner Up Last Year (Philadelphia Cricket Club): Justin Thomas, Shane Lowry (-14)
PGA Championship 2025 Champion (Quail Hallow): Scottie Scheffler (-11)
PGA Championship 2025 Runner Ups (Quail Hallow): Harris English, Davis Riley, Bryson DeChambeau (-6)
One and Done: Rory McIlroy
One and Done Considerations: Rory McIlroy, Ludvig Aberg, Xander Schauffele
Players
Xander Schauffele: 10000: +1125 – The second best golfer in the field behind Rory, he’s gained strokes on approach, OTT and T2G consistently almost every event this season, his T2G play was fine but he just couldn’t putt at Augusta and still finished T9, his issue this year is that he can’t put four good rounds together with three great rounds (including shooting 65s in three of his last four events) and one terrible one, playing great lately and looks to be back in form after his rib injury last year with 12,9,4,3,24,7,19,41,MC,1,28,22,7,8 finishes in his last 14 events, back to back runner up finishes here for the Wells Fargo Championship with 22,14,72,24 finishes, T28 and T13 finishes here for the PGA Championship last year and 2022, 3rd in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Driving Distance, 9th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 36th in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards, 5th in Par 5 scoring, 49th in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 54th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Ludvig Aberg: 9600: +1650 – His skillset maps out great for this course and he’s trending upwards, gaining over a stroke on difficult to very difficult courses, gaining over a stroke on tournaments with very strong fields, gaining over 1.5 strokes on very long course, has gained strokes T2G in each of his last seven events, crushes it off the tee, 4,21,5,5,3,20,37,MC,WD,3,23,20,21,7,9,23,8,36,MC,13,16,MC,60,54,7 finishes in his last 25 starts, missed the cut at the PGA Championship here last year and has never played this course for the Wells Fargo Championship, 26th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 20th in Driving Distance, 28th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 15th in Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards, 20th in Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards, 7th in Par 5 scoring, 12th in SG: ARG, 29th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 27th in Bogie Avoidance
Adam Scott: 8900: +4200 – Pops in my model again this week, after a slow start to last week he flew up the leaderboard over the weekend to finish T4 at Doral, playing well this season with 4,24,21,56,11,4,30,24,40,27,55,53,MC,17,30,12,31,19,34 finishes in his last 19 events, 29,5,76 finishes here for the Wells Fargo Championship since the course redesign in 2017, T19 and MC finishes here for the PGA Championship last year and 2022, 1st in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 7th in Driving Distance, 7th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 12th in Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards, 37th in Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards, 13th in Par 5 scoring, 35th in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 10th in Bogie Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7800: +5000 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him, crushes it off the tee, 23,55,MC,2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 20 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, T41 and MC finishes here for the PGA Championship last year and 2022, has never played this course for the Wells Fargo Championship, 16th in Approach, 14th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Distance, 55th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards, 38th in Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 34th in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 70th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 22nd in Bogie Avoidance
Sudarshan Yellamaraju: 6700: +13500 – Consistently playing great golf as a rookie on tour this season with 30,52,14,6,5,37,17,54,56,MC,13 finishes on the PGA Tour this year, maps out great statistically has never played this course, 28th in Approach, 21st in SG: OTT, 15th in Driving Distance, 45th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 4th in Proximity 200+ yards, 33rd in Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards, 18th in Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards, 17th in Par 5 scoring, 55th in SG: ARG, 10th in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 16th in Bogie Avoidance, I think he’s worth betting at a big longshot, also taking his T5 (including ties)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Proximity 150-200 yards (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
Par 3 scoring 201-225 yards (5%)
Par 4 scoring 451-500 yards (15%)
Par 5 scoring (5%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I could easily see Rory, who has fantastic course history here, winning this as he’s coming off his Master’s win, but can’t quite get there at around 5:1
- I was hoping the books would offer non-Rory markets this week, but they’re only offering the non-big guns markets, so instead I’m just taking the standard outrights on these guys. If Rory wins, so be it. I also thought about betting Rory just as a hedge to cover all my other bets, but I feel like that isn’t worth it either at +500ish
- I’m not doing a full writeup, breakdown or research on the ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic, but after sitting as the third alternate for the last several signature events, Brooks Koepka is playing at Myrtle Beach this week. That alternate field event is pretty weak and a win there gets Brooks into the signature events, and I like him to win it with decent odds at +1650, so I’m taking him. He’s got way more talent than anyone else in that field, plus favorites usually win the alt field events.
Bets
Outrights
1u Xander Schauffele (+1125)
.7u Ludvig Aberg (+1650)
.4u Adam Scott (+4200)
.2u Nicolai Hojgaard (+5000)
.1u Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+13500)
T5s (Ties Paid in Full)
.2u Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+1650)
ONEflight Myrtle Beach Classic Bets
Outrights
.7u Brooks Koepka (+1650)
Please follow me:
Instagram: @atownszone
Twitter: @atownszone
If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!
… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…
A Town's Zone 