My five day win streak ended on last night’s NHL playoff games, as I went 1-2 to lose 0.91 units. Let’s get right back to winning on tonight’s Game 5 as the Avs could beat the Wild to advance to the Western Conference Finals.
Game 5: Avalanche vs. Wild (8:00)
The Avalanche can advance to the Western Conference Finals tonight as they currently lead the Wild 3-1 in the series. I thought Minnesota would give them a better series than this, but I guess battling it out against the Stars in the first round might’ve taken it all out of them. That, or Colorado’s just this good. Game 1 of this series on Sunday night was nuts to watch as both teams put on a show offensively, with the Avalanche winning 9-6 at home to lead the series. The Avs started off hot, with a 3-0 lead just 13 minutes into the game, but Minnesota battled back, taking a 5-4 lead in the second period. Colorado quickly tied it up before the second ended, and with a four third period for the Avs, with Cale Makar scoring twice after coming back from injury, they got the win. Offensively, I think the Wild can hang around games with the Avs, just as they did in the regular season, but the fact that they gave up nine goals is quite the concern (not that it’s great that the Avalanche gave up six either). The best players on the Avs shined in Game 2 at home. The game started off real hot, with Martin Necas and Kirill Kaprizov trading goals in the first three minutes of the game, but then the Avs got rolled, getting out to a 4-1 lead in the third on Nathan MacKinnon’s power play goal that was too much for them to dig out of, getting a 5-2 win at home, capped off by a huge empty netter from Val Nichushkin, that “mattered to some” as SVP said on SportsCenter after the game (huge win on the over), to take a 2-0 series lead to Minnesota. The Wild had a must win game at home for Game 3 and came out and got a pretty dominant 5-1 win at home, despite both teams playing pretty evenly. Early in the second period, they got out to a 3-0 lead with goals from Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, and Ryan Hartman. Nathan MacKinnon answered on the power play to get the Avs on the board and keep it close in a 3-1 game, but just 20 seconds later, Brock Faber answered back to make it 4-1 and Matt Boldy capped it out with an empty netter to end it in a 5-1 win. Huge win to make it a series, cause if they would’ve lost that game, there’s no chance they were coming back from a 3-0 series deficit, and even though they were outshot 36-26, they still were able to find a way to win 5-1. Impressive. Colorado bounced right back in Game 4 on the road on Monday night, trading goals in a 2-2 game with ten minutes left, before Parker Kelly answered with 9:28 left in regulation to give the Avs the lead back. Followed by two empty netters, one from Nathan MacKinnon, and another with eight seconds left that once again “mattered to some” to hit the over by Brock Nelson for them to go on to win 5-2 and put the Wild on the brink of elimination. The Avalanche dominated that game, outshooting Minnesota 34-21, with almost two more expected goals before the two empty netters. I think this is the end of the road for this very fun season for the Wild. I just don’t see the Avs losing at home. The moneyline is more expensive than I expected at -230, but I’ll take them in regulation for 2 units. I thought about taking the puck line, but at +110, I’ll just stick to the regulation line. Especially with this being an elimination game that I expect the Avs to lead, I like the over too, which I’ll take for 1.5 units. I hit a nice +385 parlay on Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Cale Makar, Kirill Kaprizov, Matt Boldy, and Quinn Hughes to each get a point in Game 1, and I’ll keep riding that that six leg parlay for another half unit likely for one last time tonight. I’ll also individually take Nathan MacKinnon to get over 1.5 points for a unit, Martin Necas to each get over 1.5 points for half a unit (which the books smartened up on the pricing for), and I’ll go back to Quinn Hughes to get an assist for half a unit.
Series Bets
1.5u Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
2u Avalanche in regulation (-145)
1.5u Avalanche/Wild over 6.5 (-110)
.5u parlay: MacKinnon/Necas/Makar/Kaprizov/Boldy/Hughes 1+ point each (+409)
1u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-130)
.5u Martin Necas over 1.5 points (+175)
.5u Quinn Hughes over 0.5 assist (-154)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 68-75 (-7.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 26-26 (+6.25 units)
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A Town's Zone 