This week the best golfers in the world head to Aronimink Golf Club in Philly for the second major of the year, the PGA Championship. Let’s win!
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7394 yards (very long for a Par 70), Donald Ross design, plays firm and fast, lot of variability in course setup from hole to hole, three of the Par 3s are over 225 yards and are three of the four most difficult holes on the course, one of the Par 5’s is reachable by everyone in the field and the other one will play as more of a three shot hole, off the tee golfers will see average width fairways with a lot of uneven lies that get thinner the longer you go off the tee, bunkers guarding the landing areas, length could be an advantage if you hit the fairway but isn’t necessarily needed as much, thick and penal 4 inch rough if golfers miss the fairway, in 2017 the course was redesigned taking it back to it’s original design making wider fairways and adding over 100 bunkers making it 174 bunkers on the property, water in play on three holes, massive heavily tiered and undulated bentgrass greens than mostly slope heavily from back to front that are guarded by a ton of bunkers, the greens have a lot of quadrants so placement on the greens matters (sort of similar to Augusta)
Tournament Notes
- The second major championship of the year
- Cut line is Top 70 and ties rather than the typical Top 65 of most other events
- A lot of PGA of America (not PGA Tour) Professionals and Champions Tour golfers are in the field that you can immediately just cross off, so its actually a much smaller field of guys actually in contention than it looks
- This course was last seen in professional men’s golf in the BMW Championship in 2018 (where Keegan Bradley won in a playoff at -20 against Justin Rose) and the AT&T National in 2011 (where Nick Watney won at -13) and 2010 (where Justin Rose won at -10)
- In the 2018 BMW Championship, nine of the top ten golfers in putting finished in the T12 on the leaderboard
- In the 2018 BMW Championship, three of the Top 7 finishers and five of the Top 14 actually lost strokes that week off the tee
- In the 2018 BMW Championship, the Top 7 finishers all gained in proximity from 200+ yards. Keegan and Rose both lost strokes in proximity from 125-150 and 150-175 yards.
- In the 2018 BMW Championship, three of the top 4 in Par 3 Scoring finished T3 on the leaderboard
- This course previously held the PGA Championship in 1962 when Gary Player won
- The PGA Championship has been won by an America in each of the last ten years (since Jason Day in 2015)
- 10 of the last 12 major championships were won by Americans, with Rory winning the Masters twice the last two years being the only exception
- Scottie Scheffler last year was the first winner in ten years to win the PGA Championship by more than 2 strokes
- Each of the last nine PGA Championships were won by golfers who now (not necessarily at the point of winning) are multi-time major winners
- 11 if the last 12 PGA Championship winners were ranked #1 or #2 in the world at some point before or after they win, the only one who wasn’t was Jimmy Walker, who’s best ranking was #10
- Every PGA Championship winner since 2006 has made the cut the week before winning
- 10 of the last 13 winners of the PGA Championship finished T15 or better in their previous event (Justin Thomas was 28th, Morikawa finished 20th) before winning
- 11 of the last 12 winners of the PGA Championship gained strokes OTT and on Approach in their previous event before winning (Phil Mickelson was the only outlier)
- Besides Phil in 2021, who finished 69th in his even the week before (but was first round leader and 10th after 36 holes), every other winner since 2006 finished T28 or better the week prior
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG
Field
156 golfers – major championship field with all the best golfers in the world from the PGA Tour, LIV Golf, DP World Tour, and a ton of PGA Professionals
Defending Champion (Quail Hallow): Scottie Scheffler (-11)
Runner Up Last Year (Quail Hallow): Bryson DeChambeau, Davis Riley, Harris English (-6)
One and Done: Jon Rahm
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton
Players
Scottie Scheffler: 13900: +531 – The best golfer in the world and this feel’s like a Scottie week, four time major champion, defending champion with 1,8,2,MC,8,4 finishes at PGA Championships, due for a win with 2,2,2,22,24,12,4,3,1,1,4,1,3,1 finishes in his last 14 events, has never played this course, 25th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 14th in Good Drives Gained, 37th in Driving Distance, 40th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 95th in Sand Saves, 2nd in SG: ARG, 13th in Putting, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogey Avoidance
Cameron Young: 10200: +1475 – Playing elite golf right now and just hit an outright for me two weeks ago in a signature event at Doral to go with his win at THE PLAYERS this year, the only real weakness to his game right now statistically are Par 5s which there’s only two of on this course, elite off the tee and has gained strokes OTT in his last 15 events, he has gained strokes on Approach, T2G, and OTT in each of his last seven events, has seven T10s in his 14 majors, 47,63,MC,3 finishes at PGA Championships, 10,1,25,3,1,3,7,55,41,22,10,9,4,11,5,1,MC,46,52,4,4,25,47,7 finishes in his last 24 events, first time playing this course, 27th in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 22nd in Driving Distance, 86th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 74th in Sand Saves, 13th in SG: ARG, 34th in Putting, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9900: +4000 – Played fantastic golf to start the year and seems to be back healthy after he had to WD from THE PLAYERS with a back injury after he played one hole, won earlier this season at a signature event at Pebble Beach, gained around the greens in six straight events, two time major winner and former PGA Championship winner in 2020 with 50,4,26,55,8,1 finishes at PGA Championships, has never played this course, 62,4,7,WD,5,7,1,54,MC,14,43,33,22 finishes in his last 13 events, 2nd in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 1st in Good Drives Gained, 99th in Driving Distance, 80th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring, 18th in Sand Saves, 33rd in SG: ARG, 75th in Putting, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 18th in Bogey Avoidance
Tyrrell Hatton: 9100: +5900 – I think he maps out great for this course, 60,63,15,13,38,MC,48,10,MC,10,25 finishes at PGA Championships, finished T3 at The Masters this year with 17,5,38,10,45 finishes on LIV Golf this year, 16th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 9th in Good Drives Gained, 28th in Driving Distance, 36th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Sand Saves, 6th in SG: ARG, 96th in Putting, 106th in Birdie+ Gained, 92nd in Bogey Avoidance, stats are skewed since he’s on LIV Golf where there’s no publicly available strokes gained data
Akshay Bhatia: 7600: +9000 – Pops in my model as a long shot, won this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seems to have addressed his short game problems this year, 37,23,16,MC,MC,13,1,16,6,3,MC,MC14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54 finishes in his last 22 events, missed the cut at the PGA Championship the last two years, has never played this course, 20th in Approach, 105th in SG: OTT, 62nd in Good Drives Gained, 82nd in Driving Distance, 66th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Sand Saves, 41st in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 29th in Bogey Avoidance, also taking him T5 (ties paid in full)
Nicolai Hojgaard: 6500: +6400 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him, crushes it off the tee, coming off a T2 last week at the Truist with 2,23,55,MC,2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 21 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour, 41,68,50,MC finishes at PGA Championships, has never played this course, 14th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 113th in Good Drives Gained, 16th in Driving Distance, 10th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 36th in Par 4 Scoring, 58th in Sand Saves, 49th in SG: ARG, 62nd in Putting, 56th in Birdie+ Gained, 38th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives Gained (5%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Par 3 Scoring 201-225 Yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (15%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I’ve hit the winner of the PGA Championship four times since starting to track my bets on golf in 2019 (Brooks Koepka at +2200 in 2023, Justin Thomas at +1600 in 2022, Collin Morikawa at +2600 in 2020, Brooks Koepka at +975 in 2019)
- I had Justin Rose in the BMW Championship here in 2018 where he lost in the playoff to Keegan Bradley
- I rarely bet Scottie, but I think the +531 is worth it this week, he’s my pick to win. I’ll also take the rest of these guys in the non-Scottie market and try to hit multiple outrights in one tournament
- Some books are offering both winner without Scheffler and winner without the big guns markets. I’m using both this week
- I’d love an exact trifecta finish of Scottie/Cam/Morikawa (or any of those other 3 guys in third). Let’s have some fun here!
Bets
Outrights
2u Scottie Scheffler (+531)
Outrights without Scheffler
1u Cameron Young (+1225)
Outrights without Scheffler/Rahm/McIlroy/Young
.5u Collin Morikawa (+3360)
.3u Tyrrell Hatton (+4000)
.3u Nicolai Hojgaard (+4100)
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+7000)
T5s
.2u Akshay Bhatia (+1960)
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