Last night the Avs needed overtime for their insane comeback to knock off the Wild, so I had a losing night on the NHL, going 3-3 to lose 1.82 units. Let’s bounce back on what should be two fantastic games tonight!
Game 5: Sabres vs. Canadiens (7:00)
This is the biggest hockey game in Buffalo in the last 20 years. As a huge Sabres fan, I don’t feel great about this series in the slightest based on how we’ve played in really all four games of this series so far, and it’s a miracle that this series is tied heading back to Buffalo tonight for Game 5. I thought Game 1 was actually pretty solid for both teams, with my Sabres winning 4-2 at home. We got outshot 28-16, which wasn’t great, but I thought we played quite well on both ends of the ice all night to get the win. Alex Lyon was fantastic in goal, with some help from the posts. Really good game, and the offense was successful on limited opportunities with some big goals from the depth in our line. Zach Benson was fantastic, drawing a penalty early and getting two fantastic assists to set up the first two goals of the first period. Then even though we only had one shot on goal in the third period, locked down and held off the comeback push from Montreal. Montreal answered back in Game 2 on Friday night, absolutely dominating the Sabres in an absolutely awful game. We looked like complete shit from start to finish, getting embarrassed quickly and often all night on home ice. The crowd was out of it right away after we went down 2-0 in just the first five minutes of the game. Gave away the puck on more turnovers than passes we completed. We barely got anything going in the slightest in the Habs zone. Barely any quality scoring chances. Our offense was completely dead. We took a ton of stupid penalties and the Habs dominated the entire game to tie up this series. Our best players were the worst ones on the ice tonight, especially Tage. It was just horrible. Only bright side of this game was Benson being his little carnival freak self, our little rat. But besides him, nothing. As the series shifted to Montreal for Game 3, it was arguably even more embarrassing for Buffalo, losing 6-2 on the road to fall 2-1 in the series. We’ve gotten completely dominated for two games in a row. Our defense was absolutely awful, and our offense got next to nothing going with just a goal from Tage 53 seconds in and a power play goal by Dahlin. We couldn’t even possess the fucking puck or keep it in the Habs zone. Shockingly, even giving up five goals, I did think Lyon was pretty good. The game should’ve been a blowout in the first period, but he kept us in there until everything completely fell apart. Just so bad. Game 4 on Tuesday was a must win game for the Sabres or the season was easily going to be over and it was one of the ugliest games I’ve watched them play all season, but we found a miracle of a way to win 3-2 on the road to even up this series. Lindy made several lineup changes going into Game 4, the biggest being a goalie change (which I didn’t think those two losses were Lyon’s fault) to UPL. The Sabres started hot, with Mattias Samuelsson scoring in transition on a beautiful play in the first period. Then the ridiculousness started. The Sabres thought they made it 2-0, but it wasn’t called a goal on the ice. Toronto called down to review it and it was determined that it was a good, with Dobes’ glove fully crossing the goal line with the puck in it. Right after that long review, Marty St. Louis immediately then challenged it for goaltender interference. It’s fucking ridiculous that we can’t just have all of this done on the original review that got called in from Toronto on the puck crossing the goal line. Then it was in fact determined to be goaltender interference (probably was) and determined to be no goal. I think that was the right call, but that completely killed anything going in the game after a ten minute delay. Not long after Alex Newhook tied it up for the Habs and after a garbage penalty on Tage, Cole Caufield scores on a soft goal that had me bitching about UPL to give them a 2-0 lead. Somehow though we got a spark of luck from the hockey gods, and by a miraculous bounce off the boards on a dump and chase for Tage, the puck bounced into the net. The Sabres were playing terrible, but on the power play with 4:40 left in the game, Josh Doan set up a beautiful play right in front for Zach Benson to finish for a great backhand goal on his 21st birthday, giving us the 3-2 lead 4:40 into the third. Huge goal from our little rat to win it. Sometimes you gotta win ugly, and that’s exactly what we did. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter, we got the win. After his bad goal he gave up to end the first period, UPL was fantastic in goal for the second and the third to get us this win, making 28 saves on the 30 shots he saw. I thought Montreal was definitely the better team tonight though, outshooting us 30-22. It was just error after error for the Sabres both offensively and defensively, but we found a way to win a must win game. The refs were awful, but we beat them and the Habs. Somehow. The Sabres didn’t do themselves any favors though. We played so sloppy for most of that game and couldn’t stay out of the box, and yeah a lot of calls were garbage, and the refs made this game take WAY too long, but who cares, we won. That going into Game 5 tonight though makes me very nervous. Montreal hasn’t lost two games in a row since March and they’ve been the better team by far in every game of this series. It’s unbelievable that with a stroke of luck this series is tied. I don’t understand how the Sabres are favorites in this game, even at home. I would’ve handicapped this game at like -135 Habs, but instead it’s -120 on the Sabres. I think there’s massive value here on the Canadiens, but as a diehard Sabres fan, I just can’t bet against my team, so I will stay off it. I like the over again tonight, and I’ll go back to that for 1.5 units. I’m going to take a couple shots on player props in this game. For half a unit each, I’ll individually take Josh Doan, Zach Benson, and Alex Newhook to each get a point.
Game 6: Ducks vs. Golden Knights (9:30)
This has been a solid Pacific Division series and the Vegas Golden Knights now have a chance to close this out on the road and head to Colorado for the Western Conference Finals as they’re now up 3-2 in the series. Game 1 was great. These teams battled, with a fantastic night in goal for Carter Hart, as the Ducks outshot Vegas 34-22, but the Golden Knights got the 3-1 win at home. The Knights lead till late, until Mikael Granlund tied it up with 6:03 left in regulation, but just 1:05 later, right after a questionable no-call, Pavel Dorofeyev set up a sick pass to Ivan Barbashev to get Vegas the lead back, capped off by a Mitch Marner empty netter. Not the best game for the Golden Knights and they still found a way to get a really solid win. The Ducks answered back though in Game 2, with a very good game for Lukas Dostal, having a shutout until the final six seconds of the game when Mark Stone scored on the power play, getting Anaheim a 3-1 win at home to even the series. As the series shift to Anaheim on Friday, the Golden Knights absolutely dominated that game, winning 6-2 on the road in a spectacular game for Mitch Marner. The Knights scored early in the first period and never gave up the lead, scoring three goals in the first period, including one shorthanded, and then Mitch Marner on the power play made it 3-0 with five seconds left in the first. Marner kept rolling with a natural hat trick, his first in a playoff game with an assist to go with it. Carter Hart shut out the Ducks until there was just 13.5 minutes left in the game, where it was already out of reach with Vegas up 5-0 going into the third. In Game 4 on Sunday after that effort on the road in Game 3, I thought the Golden Knights would win again, but these teams battled again, with both teams trading goals. Late in the second period, Alex Killorn gave the Ducks the lead back and early in the third, Ian Moore made it 4-2 Anaheim, putting the game just too far out of reach for the Knights, who scored one more late, but couldn’t tie it up, losing 4-3 on the road as the Ducks tied the series back up. Game 5 on Tuesday when the series shifted back to Vegas tied up was another grind of a game. Both teams traded power play goals in the first period, then relatively early in the second, Vegas got the lead back on a nice goal for Tomas Hertl. With 3:05 left in regulation, the Ducks tied it up on an Olen Zellweger goal, sending it to overtime, but Pavel Dorofeyev got set up by Jack Eichel to win the game 3-2 and playing Vegas Lights out of the Fortress. I like Vegas to win and end this series on the road tonight. I already have 1.5 units on them to win it, which I now have two shots to cash. I’ll double down on them tonight for a unit I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I’ll also go back to my parlay on Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner to each get a point for a unit.
Series Bets
1.5u Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
1.5u Sabres/Canadiens over 5.5 (-125)
.5u Josh Doan over 0.5 point (-115)
.5u Zach Benson over 0.5 point (-110)
.5u Alex Newhook over 0.5 point (+124)
1u Golden Knights ML (-110)
1u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mitch Marner 1+ point each (-134)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 68-75 (-7.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 29-29 (+4.43 units)
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