I’m expecting this to be a really fun Western Conference Finals between the President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche, who have been the best team in the NHL all season, and the Pacific Division winning Vegas Golden Knights, who are in the Western Conference Finals for the fifth time in their nine years of existence. I know everyone thinks that the Avs are the easy favorite to win this series and then to win the Cup, but I could see the Knights giving them a good series.
During their regular season games, the Avalanche went 2-0-1 against the Golden Knights. In the first game between them in Vegas back on Halloween, the Avs quickly scored with Marty Necas lighting the lamp just 41 seconds in and shut out Vegas until the third period, the teams traded goals, but the comeback effort for the Knights came up short, with Cale Makar closing the game with an empty netter to win it 4-2 for Colorado on the road. On December 27th in the second game between them, the Knights got off to a quick start with a 2-0 lead early in the second. The Avs tied it up, but Vegas scored twice again to take a 4-2 lead. In the third, the Avs tied it again at 4, with Colton Sissons scoring the go ahead goal with four minutes left in regulation for the Golden Knights, but with 1:57 left in regulation, Artturi Lehkonen tied it up to send it to overtime, set up by Nathan MacKinnon for his third point of the third period. MacKinnon then won it 6-5 in the shootout on the road. The final game between these teams in Colorado went to overtime as well on April 11th, with them trading first period goals, trading second period goals, and Jack Eichel winning it to avoid the season sweep for the Knights in overtime, winning 3-2.
Colorado was far and away the best team in the league this year, clinching the President’s Trophy relatively early in this spectacular season. They went 55-16-11, the best team in the NHL by nine points over the Stars. They have been the Cup favorite all year to the point that it’ll almost be a disappointing season if they don’t lift Lord Stanley for the second time in four years. They have top tier stars on that team at both ends of the ice and have so much depth that there really aren’t any weak spots in that lineup.
As expected, the Avalanche dominated their first round matchup against the second Wild Card LA Kings, sweeping them, although I was impressed with how the Kings kept games close and grinded out these tight games. Game 1 was a boring grind, with the Avs winning 2-1 at home, and Scott Wedgewood holding a shutout in his first playoff game until Artemi Panarin got a power play goal with just 2:22 left in regulation. Game 2 was closer, with no goals through the first 53 minutes of the game, with the Kings getting out to a 1-0 lead with just 6:56 left in regulation, but the captain Gabriel Landeskog tied it up with 3:35 left in regulation to send it to overtime, before Nick Roy got the Avs the 2-1 win in OT. The Avs got a 4-2 win in Game 3 to put the Kings on the brink of elimination when the series shifted to LA, getting up to a 3-1 lead with a shorthanded goal by Artturi Lehkonen in the third, and then after Adrian Kempe scored on the power play to make it close with 4:03 left, Brock Nelson capped off the game with an empty netter. With a chance to complete the sweep in Game 4, the Avalanche took full advantage of that opportunity, dominating their way to a 6-1 blowout on the road to sweep LA.
I thought Minnesota would give the Avs a better series in the second round, but I guess battling it out against the Stars in the first round might’ve taken it all out of them. That, or Colorado’s just this good. Game 1 of the series was nuts to watch as both teams put on a show offensively, with the Avalanche winning 9-6 at home to lead the series. The Avs started off hot, with a 3-0 lead just 13 minutes into the game, but Minnesota battled back, taking a 5-4 lead in the second period. Colorado quickly tied it up before the second ended, and with a four third period for the Avs, with Cale Makar scoring twice after coming back from injury, they got the win. The best players on the Avs shined in Game 2 at home. The game started off real hot, with Martin Necas and Kirill Kaprizov trading goals in the first three minutes of the game, but then the Avs got rolled, getting out to a 4-1 lead in the third on Nathan MacKinnon’s power play goal that was too much for them to dig out of, getting a 5-2 win at home, capped off by a huge empty netter from Val Nichushkin, that “mattered to some” as SVP said on SportsCenter after the game (huge win on the over), to take a 2-0 series lead to Minnesota. The Wild had a must win game at home for Game 3 and came out and got a pretty dominant 5-1 win at home, despite both teams playing pretty evenly. Early in the second period, they got out to a 3-0 lead with goals from Kirill Kaprizov, Quinn Hughes, and Ryan Hartman. Nathan MacKinnon answered on the power play to get the Avs on the board and keep it close in a 3-1 game, but just 20 seconds later, Brock Faber answered back to make it 4-1 and Matt Boldy capped it out with an empty netter to end it in a 5-1 win. Huge win to make it a series, cause if they would’ve lost that game, there’s no chance they were coming back from a 3-0 series deficit, and even though they were outshot 36-26, they still were able to find a way to win 5-1. Impressive. Colorado bounced right back in Game 4 on the road on Monday night, trading goals in a 2-2 game with ten minutes left, before Parker Kelly answered with 9:28 left in regulation to give the Avs the lead back. Followed by two empty netters, one from Nathan MacKinnon, and another with eight seconds left that once again “mattered to some” to hit the over by Brock Nelson for them to go on to win 5-2 and put the Wild on the brink of elimination. The Avalanche dominated that game, outshooting Minnesota 34-21, with almost two more expected goals before the two empty netters. With the series on the line in Game 5 back in Colorado, we had an insane game. The Wild scored just 34 seconds into the game with Quinn Hughes and Matt Boldy setting up Marcus Johansson. Nick Foligno added two goals in a row to make it 3-0 heading into the first intermission. Colorado shut out Minnesota the rest of the way. Parker Kelly put the Avs on the board eleven minutes into the second period to make it 3-1. It looked bleak kind of late, but Jack Drury scored for the Avalanche with 3:33 left to get them back in the game, and with the net empty, Nathan MacKinnon ripped home an absolute perfect rocket of a shot to tie the game up and send it to overtime. 3:52 into OT, Marty Necas set up Brent Kulak for the game winner, to end the series with 4-3 victory in fantastic comeback fashion.
The Avs were the best team in the NHL on both ends of the ice, playing spectacular hockey all year. Offensively, they led the league in scoring, lighting the lamp for an average of 3.63 goals per game on a league-leading average of 33.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.62) in the NHL and the second-most high danger shots in the league, trailing just the Canes. Colorado’s only issue offensively were their struggles on the power play this year, scoring at just a 17.1% rate, the sixth-worst in the NHL. Nathan MacKinnon led the way for the Avalanche this year in a Hart Trophy worth season with 127 points, winning the Rocket Richard with 53 goals, and 74 assists. Martin Necas hit the 100 point make as well with 38 goals and 62 assists, while Cale Makar, the best defenseman in the NHL, had over a point per game on the back end, with 79 points and 59 assists. The Nate Dogg (13 points, 7 goals) and Marty Necas (10 assists) have led the way in the playoffs.
Defensively Colorado was the best in the league as well by a significant margin, allowing the fewest goals in the NHL, an average of just 2.4 goals per game, on an average of 26.1 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fourth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.78) and the sixth-fewest high danger shots. The Avs had the best penalty kill unit in the NHL as well at 81.9%. Both of their goalies were fantastic. Mackenzie Blackwood went 23-10-2, with a 2.51 GAA, a .904 save percentage, and three shutouts. Scott Wedgwood was even better successfully, going 31-6-6, with a league-leading 2.02 GAA, a league-leading .921 save percentage, and four shutouts. Wedgewood carried the bulk of the load through the playoffs.
The Golden Knights had plenty of their struggles this season, as the whole Pacific Division was pretty weak this season. They were quite disappointing with the way they played this season, especially when you look at how good that lineup is. In the midst of a losing run where they looked like crap at the end of March, Vegas fired head coach Bruce Cassidy, who led them to a Stanley Cup win three years ago and hired John Tortorella as their new interim head coach. Under Torts, the Knights went 7-0-1 in their last eight games, to win the Pacific with a 39-26-17 record on a ten game point streak, two points ahead of the Oilers.
The first round as the Knights took on the first Wild Card Utah Mammoth was a ton of fun to watch. The Mammoth started Game 1 looking pretty good, but fell apart in the third period to lose 4-2 on the road with Vegas coming alive in the third period, with captain Mark Stone tying the game up in the third on the power play, Nic Dowd giving the Knights a lead less than two minutes later and the Russian cigarette machine, Ivan Barbashev capping it off with an empty netter. Utah bounced back in Game 2 on the road to knot up the series with a late goal by Logan Cooley to win it 3-2 and take home ice in the series. The Mammoth won 4-2 at home in Game 3 for the first ever NHL playoff game at the Delta Center, getting out to a 4-0 lead early and riding that with a fantastic 30 save night for Karel Vejmelka, with an impressive .938 save percentage as Utah got outshot 32-12. The Golden Knights answered back in Game 5, blowing an early 3-0 lead with four straight goals for the Mammoth at home, then winning it late, with just 52 seconds left in the first overtime with one of the original misfits, Shea Theodore scoring the game winner to tie the series with a 5-4 win on the road for Vegas. Game 6 was spectacular, with teams trading goals all game. The Mammoth took a 4-3 lead with two goals in a row in the third period, but Vegas tied it up to force overtime with Pavel Dorofeyev’s hat trick goal with just 53 seconds left in regulation. After a scoreless overtime period, Brett Howden ended the game, getting the Knights a 5-4 win at home in double overtime, shorthanded, set up by a good play on the wall by Mitch Marner.
The Golden Knights had a pretty solid second round series in the Pacific against the Anaheim Ducks, winning the series in six games. Game 1 was great. These teams battled, with a fantastic night in goal for Carter Hart, as the Ducks outshot Vegas 34-22, but the Golden Knights got the 3-1 win at home. The Knights lead till late, until Mikael Granlund tied it up with 6:03 left in regulation, but just 1:05 later, right after a questionable no-call, Pavel Dorofeyev set up a sick pass to Ivan Barbashev to get Vegas the lead back, capped off by a Mitch Marner empty netter. Not the best game for the Golden Knights and they still found a way to get a really solid win. The Ducks answered back though in Game 2, with a very good game for Lukas Dostal, having a shutout until the final six seconds of the game when Mark Stone scored on the power play, getting Anaheim a 3-1 win at home to even the series. As the series shift to Anaheim on Friday, the Golden Knights absolutely dominated that game, winning 6-2 on the road in a spectacular game for Mitch Marner. The Knights scored early in the first period and never gave up the lead, scoring three goals in the first period, including one shorthanded, and then Mitch Marner on the power play made it 3-0 with five seconds left in the first. Marner kept rolling with a natural hat trick, his first in a playoff game with an assist to go with it. Carter Hart shut out the Ducks until there was just 13.5 minutes left in the game, where it was already out of reach with Vegas up 5-0 going into the third. In Game 4 on Sunday after that effort on the road in Game 3, I thought the Golden Knights would win again, but these teams battled again, with both teams trading goals. Late in the second period, Alex Killorn gave the Ducks the lead back and early in the third, Ian Moore made it 4-2 Anaheim, putting the game just too far out of reach for the Knights, who scored one more late, but couldn’t tie it up, losing 4-3 on the road as the Ducks tied the series back up. Game 5 on Tuesday when the series shifted back to Vegas tied up was another grind of a game. Both teams traded power play goals in the first period, then relatively early in the second, Vegas got the lead back on a nice goal for Tomas Hertl. With 3:05 left in regulation, the Ducks tied it up on an Olen Zellweger goal, sending it to overtime, but Pavel Dorofeyev got set up by Jack Eichel to win the game 3-2 and playing Vegas Lights out of the Fortress. The Golden Knights dominated Game 6 on the road to win the period. Carter Hart was fantastic, making 31 saves on the 32 shots he saw on the way to a 5-1 blowout win for Vegas on the road.
Vegas was a little bit better than league average on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they averaged 3.22 goals per game, ranking 14th in the NHL, on an average of 29 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) in the league and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Knights’ power play was pretty good, scoring at a 24.6% rate, the sixth-best in the NHL. The star players led the way for Vegas this year. Jack Eichel led them with 90 points, 27 goals, and 63 assists. Mitch Marner added in 80 points, 24 goals, and 56 points. Captain Mark Stone had 73 points, 28 goals, and 45 assists in just 60 games, and Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals for the second year in a row with 37. Through the playoffs, the Knights have had several players shine. Mitch Marner is dragging his nuts across the entire city of Toronto with seven goals, eleven assists and a hat trick. Jack Eichel’s quietly has had a fantastic playoffs, with 14 assists and an OT game winner. Pavel Dorofeyev’s scored nine goals and Brett Howden’s gotten eight.
Defensively the Golden Knights were pretty good, allowing the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.95 goals per game, on an average of just 24.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the just the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.69), trailing just the Senators and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. The Vegas penalty kill unit was very good at 81.4%, ranking sixth in the NHL. The goaltending for the Knights had their issues at times. Carter Hart, who was signed halfway into the season, was 11-3-3, with a 2.71 GAA and .891 save percentage. Adin Hill, their Cup winning goalie, went 10-9-6, with a 3.04 GAA, an .871 save percentage, and a shutout. Akira Schmid actually played the most games for them this year, going 16-10-6, with a 2.59 GAA, a .893 save percentage, and two shutouts. Carter Hart has been great in the playoffs, with a 2.37 GAA, and a .917 save percentage in the Knights’ twelve games.
I’m a bit biased here because the Golden Knights are my second favorite team, and I think Colorado should win this series, but I could see this closer of a series than a lot of people think. My pick would be the Avs win this series in 6 or 7 games and I can Vegas giving them a solid series. Cale Makar being out concerns me quite a bit, but Nathan MacKinnon and Martin Necas have been putting on a hell of year, and Colorado has so much depth at every position. I don’t love anything from a betting perspective on this series. I think Colorado’s too expensive at -275 and I don’t trust the Golden Knights to bet them in the series. For Vegas this series is all about controlling MacKinnon and Jack quietly showing he’s one of the best players and arguably the best two way forward in the NHL while Mitch Marner drags his nuts on the entire city of Toronto. I do think they need to get Mark Stone back in the lineup though for at least a few games to compete with the Avs. I also considered betting the series to go over 5.5 at -160, but I’m not very confident in anything in this series. I’ll just bet it game by game.
I’d lean the games in this series go over, with a lot of scoring power on both of these teams. During the playoffs, the over in Avs games has gone 6-3, while Vegas games have gone 5-5-2 on the total. During the regular season both of these teams trended under, with the under going 47-31-4 in Avs games and 40-39-3 in Golden Knights games. I’ll stay off it tonight in Game 1 and evaluate it as the series goes on.
I love some player props in this series, and I’ll be looking at Nathan MacKinnon, Martin Necas, Jack Eichel, and Mitch Marner point props every game.
The Avs won’t have their top defenseman for Game 1 tonight, the best one in the world in Cale Makar, but I still like them to win tonight at home to start this series. I’ll take them for a unit. I’d slightly lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. For a unit I’ll parlay Jack Eichel, Mitch Marner, and Martin Necas to each get a point, and I’ll take Nathan MacKinnon to get over 1.5 points for a unit as well.
Game 1 Bets
1u Avalanche ML (-175)
1u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mitch Marner/Martin Necas 1+ point each (+141)
1u Nathan MacKinnon over 1.5 points (-115)
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