Besides Scottie Scheffler, we have a horrible field for The CJ Cup Byron Nelson this week on the PGA Tour at TPC Craig Ranch down in Dallas. Let’s hit a winner!
Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7385 yards, one of the easiest courses on tour, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, three of the Par 3s are over 216 yards, all three Par 5s are driveable (between 547-569 yards) as well as the 330 yard Par 4 14th, wide Zoysia grass (most prevalent in Asia and Australia) fairways with a good amount of roll, rough is pretty light but may be grown up a bit more this year, trees and bunkers in play off the tee and water is in play on 13 holes with a creek running through a majority of the course, 83 bunkers, much longer driving distance than tour average (294 yards vs. 284 yards), higher than tour average GIR % (~71% vs. ~66%) and even easiest from inside 125 yards (88%, the fourth easiest on tour), fourth easiest birdie+ percentage on tour inside 125 yard (26.5%), above average sized bentgrass greens with bunkers in play, second easiest scrambling course on tour so it’s easy to make up for missing greens, easy birdiefest course that’s easy to score on with the third most birdies and fifth most eagles of any course on tour
There were several changes in the offseason to this course because the course became too easy for the PGA Tour. All three grasses on the course were replace, with similar but slightly different surfaces. It was shortened around 200 yards, with Hole 12 being lengthened to a Par 5 and Hole 18 shortened to a Par 4. The greens were reshaped with expanded pin positions. A lot of the bunkering was redesigned and there’s a a bit of a different look around the greens.
Tournament Notes
- 2021 was the first season this event was held here at TPC Craig Ranch, it used to be held at Trinity Forest Golf Club and TPC Four Seasons prior to that
- This course previously hosted the Nationwide Tour Championship (now Korn Ferry Tour) in 2012 (James Hahn and Adam Hadwin came 2nd and 3rd that week) and 2008 (Leishman came T7)
- Some of the holes on this course are so easy that if you don’t make birdie, you’re actually losing strokes on the field
- In 2023 this event was the week before the PGA Championship and got a stronger field
- 6 of the top 7 finishers in 2022 gained strokes on the Par 3s, which are the hardest holes on the course
- Last year 1, 2, and 4 in ballstriking finished 1, 2, and 4 on the leaderboard
Key Stats
Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Birdie+ Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (34%)
Field
145 golfers – Horrible field strength besides Scheffler
Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-31)
Runner Up Last Year: Erik van Rooyen (-23)
One and Done: Rio Hisatsune
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Brooks Koepka, Si Woo Kim, Rio Hisatsune
Players
Si Woo Kim: 9900: +1680 – He’s been solid with some good finishes this year and hasn’t missed a cut since last August, playing very consistent golf this year and gaining strokes T2G pretty much every week, 35,65,4,3,47,10,50,13,34,45,3,2,6,11,4,20,19,14 finishes in his last 18 events, 22nd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 11th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 36th in Par 5 Scoring, 33rd in Proximity 200+ Yards, 18th in SG: ARG, 77th in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 48th in Birdie+ Gained
Brooks Koepka: 9600: +2500 – Talent wise he’s by far the best golfer in the field that’s not Scottie Scheffler, needs a win to get into the signature events and this weaker field feels like a good spot for him, his ballstriking has been fantastic since his return but he’s been struggling putting big time this year, 55,11,12,MC,18,13,9,MC,56 finishes since his return to the PGA Tour, missed the cut his only time here in 2021 before he went to LIV, 2nd in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 41st in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 27th in Par 4 Scoring, 79th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 9th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 27th in SG: ARG, 108th in Putting, 100th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 43rd in Birdie+ Gained
Ryo Hisatsune: 9300: +4700 – Pops in my model this week, hasn’t missed a cut since the Sony to open the season with 35,45,65,60,8,30,13,33,45,8,10,2,44,MC in his 14 events on tour this year, MC and T13 finishes here the last two years, 19th in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 5th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 12th in Par 4 Scoring, 123rd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 64th in Par 5 Scoring, 28th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 77th in SG: ARG, 92nd in Putting, 92nd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 31st in Birdie+ Gained
Adrien Dumont de Chassart: 7400: +10000 – Pops in my model this week as a long shot with decent form lately, finished T30 his only time here in 2024, 31,49,12,26,26,23 finishes in his last six events, 43rd in Approach, 78th in SG: OTT, 6th in Par 3 Scoring 201–225 Yards, 41st in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 28th in Par 5 Scoring, 54th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 3rd in SG: ARG, 53rd in Putting, 111th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, I’ll also take his T5 (with ties paid in full)
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Par 3 Scoring 201-225 yards (10%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Proximity 200+ yards (15%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (5%)
Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- I crushed this tournament in 2023, hitting the winner on Jason Day with a T2 on Si Woo Kim and a T5 on Tyrrell Hatton
- I easily hit the winner here last year on Scottie Scheffler at +420 with him winning by eight strokes
- Scottie Scheffler being +168 in this tournament is fucking insane. I know he’s far and away the best player in the field with no one even close and he won by eight strokes last year, but he’s not Tiger Woods.
- The price to play Scottie Scheffler at past 14k is impossible on DraftKings. There just aren’t any good players in the 6k range to play him. This field sucks.
- Because Scottie is such a huge favorite, that makes betting the non-Scheffler markets pretty tough this week. I’m still betting both markets, but smaller card for me.
Bets
Outrights
1u Si Woo Kim (+1680)
Outrights (without Scottie Scheffler)
.6u Brooks Koepka (+1800)
.4u Ryo Hisatsune (+3100)
.2u Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+6400)
T5s (ties paid in full)
.2u Adrien Dumont de Chassart (+1175)
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