The Eastern Conference Finals could be an interesting fun matchup this year, between the Carolina Hurricanes and the #3 seed in the Atlantic Division, the Montreal Canadiens. The Canes are coming off an eleven day layoff after sweeping the first and second rounds while the Habs have won both of their series in seven games. Should be some solid hockey!
A bit surprisingly, the Canadiens swept the regular season series between these teams, winning all three games by multiple goals. The first game between them on New Year’s Day in Carolina was quite high scoring. The Habs went up 2-1 early on goals from Nick Suzuki and Oliver Kapanen in the first 4:06 of the game, before the Canes came back with four straight goals to take a 4-2 lead just 54 seconds into the second period, then Montreal came back with four straight of their own to make it 6-4. With 3:02 left in the game, Sebastian Aho got it back within one but Lane Hutson ended it with an empty netter to win 7-5 on the road. For the second game in Montreal on March 24th, the Canes were the ones to score first, getting a 2-0 lead in the first 7:09 of the game, but Dobas locked in and made 41 saves while the Habs came back to win 5-2 at home in a game where they were outshot 43-19. Montreal won the last game between these teams on the road 3-1 on March 29th in the only low scoring matchup between them, in a game they were outshot 35-18, with a two goal and an assist night for Nick Suzuki.
The Carolina Hurricanes have had a fantastic season, winning the Eastern Conference,. They finished the season with a 52-22-5 record, cruising to the Metro Division win, 15 points ahead of the #2 seed Pittsburgh Penguins. They were great on both ends of the ice all season, winning the East, four points ahead of my Buffalo Sabres.
Carolina’s dominant defense got through a first round sweep of the Ottawa Senators, knocking off the second Wild Card team in four games. The Hurricanes didn’t trail for even a second of that series. Every game of the series was such a tight grind, with four low scoring close games, but the Canes figured out a way to get the wins in all four. After winning a close Game 1 with a 2-0 shutout, they followed it up winning 3-2 in double overtime (twice, after the first game winner got pulled off the board in Game 2 with Jordan Martinook scoring the game winner that actually counted, 13:53 into the second overtime period. As the series shifted to Ottawa for Game 3, the Hurricanes grinding out a 2-1 win on the road to put the Sens on the brink of elimination. Then to close out the series in Game 4, getting a 4-2 win with two empty netters to win it.
Its already been nine days since the Hurricanes pulled off their second sweep in a row of these playoffs to advance to the Western Conference Finals, knocking off the Philadelphia Flyers in four games before the Habs and Sabres had even played Game 3 of their series. The Hurricanes dominated Game 1, which was kind of a snoozefest, as the Hurricanes dominated at home to a 3-0 shutout win, completely shutting down the Flyers offense. The Canes started hot, with Logan Stankoven scoring just 1:31 into the game and Jackson Blake giving them a 2-0 lead just 7:30 into the first. Stankoven added a second goal in the second period, putting the game out of reach for Philly. Carolina’s just so good defensively, limiting the Flyers to just nine shots on goal through 40 minutes. In Game 2, Philly started off hot to answer back, scoring two goals in 39 seconds to take a 2-0 lead just 4:41 into the game, giving the Canes their first deficit in a game all playoffs this year. Nikolaj Ehlers got Carolina back within one pretty quickly, then Seth Jarvis tied it up to force overtime with 8:39 left in regulation. 18:54 into overtime, Taylor Hall completed the comeback with the game winner to put the Hurricanes up 2-0 in the series on a 3-2 win at home. As the series shifted to Philly for Game 3, I thought that was the Flyers only chance to make this a series, and they got dominated again at home. Late in the first period, Jordan Stall gave the Hurricanes a lead on the power play, but early in the second, Trevor Zegras answering to tie it up. Late in the second though, Jalen Chatfield scored short handed for Carolina and that was all she wrote, as the Hurricanes scored two in the third to win 4-1 and put the Flyers on the brink of elimination. Although the Canes outshot the Flyers 40-17 in Game 4 on the road, that game was very tight, with great goaltending from Dan Vladar to keep Philly in it. Tyson Foerster made it 1-0 for the Flyers, 7:50 into the game. In the second period, Jackson Blake tied it up. Logan Stankoven gave Carolina the lead 4:13 into the third period, but it only took the Flyers 1:41 to tie it back up at 2-2, sending the game to overtime. 5:31 into overtime, Jackson Blake scored his second of the game, ending the series with Taylor Hall dishing the puck over to Blake, bouncing off the glove and over the shoulder of Vladar to end the series in four games.
The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they were second in scoring behind just the Avalanche, averaging 3.55 goals per game on an average of 2.88 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.6) in the NHL (also just behind Colorado) and the most high danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play was great this year, scoring at just a 24.9% rate, the fourth-best in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (80 points, 53 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).
Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.88 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 23.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.82) and the ninth-fewest high danger shots. The Hurricanes had the eleventh-best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 80.6%. Starting in goal though the playoffs has been the veteran Freddy Andersen. Although he’s had plenty of experience, he wasn’t great this year, going 16-14-5, with a 3.05 GAA, and a .874 save percentage. Brandon Bussi, who was claimed off waivers became a star and a great story in goal this year, going an impressive 31-6-2, fourth-best in the NHL, with a sixth-best 2.47 GAA, and a .895 save percentage, with two shutouts this year.
Of the four remaining teams in the playoffs, the Hurricanes have scored the least amount of goals, an average of 3 per game, but have generated the second most expected goals, just behind the Avs, an average of 3.79 goals per game. Through the playoffs, it’s been their second line of Taylor Hall (three goals, nine assists), Jackson Blake (four goals, seven assists), and Logan Stankoven (seven goals, one assist) that have shined. Defensively, as expected, Carolina’s been phenomenal. They’ve allowed by far the fewest goals of any team that made the playoffs, an average of just 1.25 per game, while giving up an average of just 2.34 goals expected per game. Freddy Andersen’s been great between the pipes, with a 1.12 GAA and a .950 save percentage.
The Habs were very good this year and a ton of fun to watch, with a lot of high-energy fun games. They finished the regular season tied with the Lightning in points with a 48-24-10 record, led by electric play by their young stars.
Every single game of the first round between the Lightning and Canadiens was so close, going to Game 7 for the Habs to close it out on the road, and four of those first round games going to overtime. What a grind of a series. Game 1 in Tampa was the only high scoring game of the series, with the teams trading goals through the game, until Juraj Slafkovsky won it 4-3 in overtime on the road, 1:22 into OT on the power play. The Lightning answered back at home in Game 2, with it going to overtime once again, this time with J.J. Moser tying the series for Tampa in OT. The atmosphere in the Bell Centre looked insane in Game 3 as the tied series shifted to Montreal. That game went to overtime yet again, and young stud defenseman Lane Hutson won it 2:09 into OT for the Habs. The Lightning tied up the series in Game 4 with a 3-2 win on the road to take back home ice in the series on Brandon Hagel’s second goal in a row with less than five minutes left in regulation. Game 5 was close as well in Tampa, with the Canadiens winning 3-2 on the road on Alex Texier’s goal early in the third period, in a game they were outshot 40-24. Game 6 was the closest of the series, with a double shutout for Andrei Vasilevskiy and Jakub Dobes both having shutouts through regulation, going to overtime scoreless, with Gage Goncalves getting the Lightning the win in OT to force Game 7. Game 7, the two best words in sports was insane. The Lightning dominated that game, playing incredible defensively. The Canadiens only generated nine shots on goal in the entire game, with none in the second period and only three in the third, but somehow one of those three shots in the third period ended up being the game winner as Alex Newhook scored with 8:53 left in regulation to take Montreal to the second round with a 2-1 win. Crazy game, and crazy series.
The second round was a complete roller coaster of an insane series for the Habs against my Buffalo Sabres. Going into the series, I was very much worried about it as a Buffalo fan. I thought Game 1 was actually pretty solid for both teams, with my Sabres winning 4-2 at home. We got outshot 28-16, which wasn’t great, but I thought we played quite well on both ends of the ice all night to get the win. Alex Lyon was fantastic in goal, with some help from the posts. Really good game, and the offense was successful on limited opportunities with some big goals from the depth in our line. Zach Benson was fantastic, drawing a penalty early and getting two fantastic assists to set up the first two goals of the first period. Then even though we only had one shot on goal in the third period, locked down and held off the comeback push from Montreal. Montreal answered back in Game 2 on Friday night, absolutely dominating the Sabres in an absolutely awful game. We looked like complete shit from start to finish, getting embarrassed quickly and often all night on home ice. The crowd was out of it right away after we went down 2-0 in just the first five minutes of the game. Gave away the puck on more turnovers than passes we completed. We barely got anything going in the slightest in the Habs zone. Barely any quality scoring chances. Our offense was completely dead. We took a ton of stupid penalties and the Habs dominated the entire game to tie up this series. Our best players were the worst ones on the ice tonight, especially Tage. It was just horrible. Only bright side of this game was Benson being his little carnival freak self, our little rat. But besides him, nothing. As the series shifted to Montreal for Game 3, it was arguably even more embarrassing for Buffalo, losing 6-2 on the road to fall 2-1 in the series. We’ve gotten completely dominated for two games in a row. Our defense was absolutely awful, and our offense got next to nothing going with just a goal from Tage 53 seconds in and a power play goal by Dahlin. We couldn’t even possess the fucking puck or keep it in the Habs zone. Shockingly, even giving up five goals, I did think Lyon was pretty good. The game should’ve been a blowout in the first period, but he kept us in there until everything completely fell apart. Just so bad. Game 4 on Tuesday was a must win game for the Sabres or the season was easily going to be over and it was one of the ugliest games I’ve watched them play all season, but we found a miracle of a way to win 3-2 on the road to even up this series. Lindy made several lineup changes going into Game 4, the biggest being a goalie change (which I didn’t think those two losses were Lyon’s fault) to UPL. The Sabres started hot, with Mattias Samuelsson scoring in transition on a beautiful play in the first period. Then the ridiculousness started. The Sabres thought they made it 2-0, but it wasn’t called a goal on the ice. Toronto called down to review it and it was determined that it was a good, with Dobes’ glove fully crossing the goal line with the puck in it. Right after that long review, Marty St. Louis immediately then challenged it for goaltender interference. It’s fucking ridiculous that we can’t just have all of this done on the original review that got called in from Toronto on the puck crossing the goal line. Then it was in fact determined to be goaltender interference (probably was) and determined to be no goal. I think that was the right call, but that completely killed anything going in the game after a ten minute delay. Not long after Alex Newhook tied it up for the Habs and after a garbage penalty on Tage, Cole Caufield scores on a soft goal that had me bitching about UPL to give them a 2-0 lead. Somehow though we got a spark of luck from the hockey gods, and by a miraculous bounce off the boards on a dump and chase for Tage, the puck bounced into the net. The Sabres were playing terrible, but on the power play with 4:40 left in the game, Josh Doan set up a beautiful play right in front for Zach Benson to finish for a great backhand goal on his 21st birthday, giving us the 3-2 lead 4:40 into the third. Huge goal from our little rat to win it. Sometimes you gotta win ugly, and that’s exactly what we did. But at the end of the day, it doesn’t matter, we got the win. After his bad goal he gave up to end the first period, UPL was fantastic in goal for the second and the third to get us this win, making 28 saves on the 30 shots he saw. I thought Montreal was definitely the better team tonight though, outshooting us 30-22. It was just error after error for the Sabres both offensively and defensively, but we found a way to win a must win game. The refs were awful, but we beat them and the Habs. Somehow. The Sabres didn’t do themselves any favors though. We played so sloppy for most of that game and couldn’t stay out of the box, and yeah a lot of calls were garbage, and the refs made this game take WAY too long, but who cares, we won. With the miracle to get the series back to Buffalo tied for Game 5 on Thursday night. The Sabres started hot in Game 5 and looked good early at home, but crumbled apart early in the horrendous second, giving up three straight goals to go on to lose 6-3 as the Habs put them a game away from elimination. The teams traded goals in a crazy five goal first period, with the Sabres leading 3-2 after the first. Fun start to watch. I thought we played well and looked like the better team through that first period, finally looking like we’re playing our game. The second period though was horrendous for us. We got dominated, with the defense looking lost and giving up way too many good looks, with the defense getting caught puck watching for Josh Anderson to get past everyone to tie it up and UPL giving up two brutal goals. Lyon probably should’ve been in the net again. I don’t care that Luukkonen won the last one. We looked good early. I thought through the first period of the game we were the better team and looked like we were the better team just playing our game, getting off to a lead. But I couldn’t believe, well actually I could, how we just completely crumbled in the second period. At that point it was over, with the Habs going on to win it 6-3. I said going into Game 6 on Saturday night that this series was over, and I didn’t see a way that the Sabres would come out and win that game, expecting Montreal to end it in six. Lindy completely mixed up all the lines for Game 6 in a do or die game and it worked out great. The Sabres played their game fantastic, tying this series and forcing Game 7 with a phenomenal win on the road, blowing a 3-1 first period lead but coming back to beat the Habs 8-3 and force Game 7. Rasmus Dahlin got the Sabres on the board early, just 31 seconds into the game on a fantastic move. 1:09 later though Arber Xhekaj tied it up on a pretty soft goal for Lyon to give up on their first shot of the game. With a shorthanded goal from Jake Evans, the Habs went up 3-1, causing Lindy to pull Lyon after he gave up three goals on three shots, putting in UPL. Before the first period ended, Josh Norris beautifully setting up a tap in for Jason Zucker, making it 3-2 and putting the game back in reach with a crazy first period. Zach Benson on a fantastic individual effort tied it up just a minute into the second period. The Sabres kept rolling, scoring at will and chasing Dobes out of the net to get an 8-3 win. We played far and away our best game of this series tonight. It got pretty dicey after we gave up the 3-1 lead in the first period, but so huge that we came back and didn’t let off the gas, just continuing to push it and play great. We looked like the Sabres that we were the whole season after November and against the Bruins in the first round. That game was so good for us. Anything can happen in Game 7. The Canadiens absolutely worked the Sabres in the first period, getting out to a 2-0 lead on a questionable goal that looked like it was kicked in and then a terrible defensive play by Mattias Samuelsson for Zach Bolduc to score on the power play. The Sabres played great in the second and third period, coming back and tying the game up, especially dominating the third period, with goals by Samuelsson and Rasmus Dahlin tying the game, along with a questionable early while calling off a goal, taking the game to overtime. The Sabres had some great looks, but on a turnover for Dahlin on a really good position, Alexander Carrier threw it over to Alex Newhook and he ended the series beating Luukkonen on a simple shot to win it 3-2. Heartbreak for Buffalo and Newhook takes the Habs to the Eastern Conference Finals with his second series winning goal in two Game 7s in a row.
The Montreal offense was very good this season, scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 26.3 shots per game. They’ve generated the ninth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.21) and the 15th-most high danger shots in the league. On the power play the Habs were pretty good at 23.1%, ranking tenth in the league. The line of Nick Suzuki (101 points, 29 goals, 72 assists), Cole Caufield (88 points, 51 goals, 37 assists), and Juraj Slafkovsky (73 points, 30 goals, 43 assists) was the best in hockey this season and young star defenseman Lane Hutson added in 78 points and 66 assists from the blue line.
The Canadiens struggled on the back end this season. They allowed the an average of 3.06 goals per game, ranking 16th in the league on an average of 27.8 shots per game. They gave up the seventh-most expected goals (3.27) in the NHL per game and they gave up the third-most high danger shots. The goaltending was a struggle for them. Young goalie Jakub Dobes went 29-10-4 with a 2.78 GAA and .901 save percentage while Sam Montembeault went 10-8-4 in his back up role with a lousy 3.43 GAA, and .872 save percentage.
The Habs have been slightly better than Carolina offensively through the playoffs, scoring an average of 3.07 goals per game, while generating an average of 3.01 expected goals per game, the least of the four remaining playoff teams. Montreal’s gotten scoring from a ton of guys these playoffs. Lane Hutson’s been phenomenal from the back end, with 14 points and twelve assists. Nick Suzuki has 13 points with four goals and nine assists. Slafkovsky, Newhook, and Caufield each have nine points through the first two rounds. Defensively, Montreal’s been the worst of the four teams remaining in the playoffs, but they’ve allowed an average of just 2.71 goals per game. They’ve given up an average of 3.22 expected goals per game, ranking sixth worst of the 16 teams that made playoffs. Jakub Dobas has been solid in goal though, with a 2.52 GAA, and a .910 save percentage.
It seems like this finally might be the year that the Hurricanes can get out of the East and advance to the Cup Finals for the first time since 2006, when they won the Cup. I know Montreal hasn’t lost two games in a row since mid-March and swept the Canes during the regular season, and their offense is unreal, but on the back end, the Hurricanes are the far better team. In the playoffs, that style of hockey wins championships. I expect the Canadiens to win a game or two and don’t really see a sweep in this series, but I really think, as much as I hate them, the Hurricanes advance to the Cup Finals in probably six games. I’ll take the Canes to win the series in six games or less for two units.
I’d slightly lean the overs in this series. The over hit easily in two of the three regular season games between these teams. During the regular season, both teams trended over, with the over going 44-37-1 in Canes games and 45-34-3 in Habs games. In that playoffs, that trend has flipped though, with Carolina games in the playoffs going 7-1 on the under, and in Habs games going 8-6. I’ll stay off the total in Game 1 tonight and evaluate it after a game or two.
I haven’t decided how I want to approach player props in this series. On the Carolina side, I think for their offense to keep up with Montreal, their best have to play like it and Aho and Jarvis, who both had great seasons need to light the lamp more, while that second line keeps buzzing. On the Montreal side, I’m considered with how an elite defense can shut down their young offensive stars and limit their chances. If they can find a way to score during the regular season, I’ll be looking at Suzuki and Slafkovsky a good amount. For Game 1 tonight, I’ll stay off all player props in this game and evaluate how it plays out.
Game 1 tonight to me is purely rest vs. rust and Carolina proving that their defense makes them this year’s elite team out of the East. The rest vs. rust thing’s largely concerning though to me for the Canes. They haven’t played in almost two weeks. I’m sure Rod’s running crazy practices between days off, but that’s a long time of not playing during the heat of the playoffs. I think Carolina’s defense is good enough to limit Montreal’s chances until their offense gets their legs under them. I think the -205 on the moneyline here is too expensive, but I’ll take the Canes to win in regulation for a unit.
Series Bets
2u Carolina Hurricanes to win series in six games or less (-135)
Game 1 Bets
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-115)
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