Coming off a heartbreaker for me on Si Woo Kim last week, this week the PGA Tour heads to Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth for the Charles Schwab Challenge, the longest running event on tour.
Course Breakdown
Par 70, 7289 yards, seven Par 4s range from 400-450 yards, three of the Par 3s range from 175-200 yards, one of the Par 5s is reachable by the entire field and the other is reachable by longer hitters but the Par 5s are both some of the hardest Par 5s on Tour while being the easiest holes on the course, 84 bunkers, four water hazards in play on six holes, Bermuda fairways and rough, tight tree lined fairways with bunkers in play on pretty much every tee shot, rough isn’t too high but wirey so it’s tough to hit out of, harder than average fairways to hit (~57% vs. tour average ~62%), most golfers will go less than driver on a lot of holes (average driving distance 278 yards vs. tour average 284), plotters course where accuracy and shot placement matters more than distance with precision more important, a lot of doglegs with 7 of the 11 favoring a left to right ball flight, slightly below average GIR % (~64% vs. tour average ~66%), this course has the lowest GIR percentage inside 150 yards on tour, small pure bentgrass greens with some undulation, lot of bunkers around the green especially in front of them, weather plays a big factor here with the winning score fluctuating between -21 and -8 in the last 15 years
Tournament Notes
- Formerly called the Fort Worth Invitational and the Dean & DeLuca Invitational and several other names before those
- The longest running course on the PGA Tour, having been played every year since 1946
- Experience and course history matter here, the winners of this event since 2001 have averaged seven appearances here prior to their win
- Only eight golfers in 70 years have gotten their maiden victory here (technically Davis Riley and Ben Griffin previously won the Zurich team events prior to winning here)
- Since Sergio won in 2001 at age 22, just Jordan Spieth in 2016, Daniel Berger in 2020, Sam Burns in 2023, Davis Riley in 2024, and Ben Griffin last year were the only golfers under age 30 to win here
- Besides Justin Rose in 2018 (on his first time here), Daniel Berger in 2020 (T53 the year previous), Sam Burns in 2022 (hadn’t played since a T31 finish in 2019), and Emiliano Grillo in 2023 (who did have an 8th place finish two years prior and a 3rd place finish in 2018), Davis Riley in 2024 (who missed the cut the year before but finished 4th the year prior), and Ben Griffin last year (who missed the cut the year before and finish T52 here the year prior) every winner since 2014 has finished T15 or better the year previous here
- SG: Approach is more than twice as impactful than OTT and ATG for Top 10/Top 5 finishes, and 3x more impactful on the winner
- Any skill set could win here and a lot of plotters have won here before but there could be an advantage to bomb and gauge the course and tear it up
Key Stats
Approach, Par 4 Scoring, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (24.7%), 125-150 yards (20.6%)
Corollary Courses
- Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage)
- Copperhead Course (Valspar Championship)
- Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship)
- Wai’alae Country Club (Sony Open)
- Pebble Beach (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am)
Field
132 golfers – Decent field for a non-signature event without many stars
Defending Champion: Ben Griffin (-12)
Runner Up Last Year: Matti Schmid (-11)
One and Done: Alex Smalley
One and Done Considerations: Ludvig Aberg, Russell Henley, Alex Smalley
Players
Russell Henley: 10200: +2000 – Has been playing really solid golf this season, map out nicely for the course, won last year at the API and has popped on leaderboards this year, MC,49,25,3,MC,13,6,MC,19,8,19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5,MC,46,8,MC,30,1,6 finishes in his last 25 events, T16, T58 finishes here in 2023 and 2018, 37th in Approach, 34th in SG: OTT, 11th in Good Drives, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 31st in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 20th in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 15th in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 10th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogey Avoidance
Rickie Fowler: 9600: +2640 – Playing well this year, prior to the PGA Championship he had a great stretch with three straight T10s and two of those in signature events with 60,2,9,8,MC,MC,42,9,28,19,18,7,5,44,28,14,18 finishes in his last 18 events, 16,37,6,57,MC,MC,14 finishes here, 34th in Approach, 25th in SG: OTT, 25th in Good Drives, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 14th in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 62nd in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 20th in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 76th in SG: ARG, 14th in Putting, 23rd in Birdie+ Gained, 13th in Bogey Avoidance
Alex Smalley: 9100: +3300 – Great form coming into this week after his T2 at the PGA Championship with six straight T25 finishes and three T10s in that span with 2,17,7,14,21,46,24,52,19,35,MC,44,40,62,3 finishes in his last 15 events, gained at least 1.5 strokes on approach in three of his last four events, gained at least 1.5 strokes OTT in three of his last four events, has gained strokes putting in each of his last four events, MC,WD,40,27 finishes here, 8th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 26th in Good Drives, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 53rd in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 115th in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 55th in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 31st in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 34th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 15th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance
Akshay Bhatia: 9000: +3500 – Best player in the field on Par 4s which is key on this course and pops in my model (third behind Ludvig and Henley) with his skillset matching up great with this course, won this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seems to have addressed his short game problems this year, 22,MC,56 finishes here, MC,37,23,16,MC,MC,13,1,16,6,3,MC,MC14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54 finishes in his last 23 events, 11th in Approach, 88th in SG: OTT, 74th in Good Drives, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 33rd in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 40th in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 59th in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 33rd in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 27th in Bogey Avoidance
Gary Woodland: 8400: +4500 – Already won this year in Texas at the Texas Children’s Houston Open and has been very good OTT this year, good course history with 11,45,MC,14,9 finishes here, MC,17,38,8,33,1,14 finishes in his last seven events, 21st in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 61st in Good Drives, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 120th in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 61st in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 25th in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 120th in SG: ARG, 26th in Putting, 31st in Birdie+ Gained, 54th in Bogey Avoidance
Sudarshan Yellamaraju: 7400: +8000 – His game’s been great in his rookie year on tour, his putting has been bad lately, hits a lot of fairways, maps out great statistically, MC,19,30,52,14,6,5,37,17,54,56,MC,13 finishes on the PGA Tour this year, has never played this course, 16th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 49th in Good Drives, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring 401–450 Yards, 53rd in Par 3 Scoring 176–200 Yards, 20th in Scoring Proximity 101–150 Yards Inside 10 Feet, 14th in Scoring Proximity 151–175 Yards Inside 15 Feet, 67th in SG: ARG, 43rd in Putting, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, I like him as a longshot here, also taking his T6 each way
Model
Approach (25%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Good Drives (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (5%)
Par 4 Scoring 401-450 yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring 176-200 yards (5%)
Scoring Proximity 101-150 yards inside 10 feet (5%)
Scoring Proximity 151-175 yards inside 15 feet (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Birdie+ Gained (5%)
Bogey Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- On DK Showdown slates, you’re better off stacking guys that start on the back nine for the wrap around of Holes 17,18,1,2 for 3+ birdie streak
- Aberg’s first in my model this week and he’d be my pick to win but I can’t bet him at +1000. Price is too low there.
Bets
Outrights
.6u Russell Henley (+2000)
.5u Rickie Fowler (+2640)
.4u Alex Smalley (+3300)
.4u Akshay Bhatia (+3500)
.3u Gary Woodland (+4800)
.2u Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+8000)
T6 Each Ways
.2u Sudarshan Yellamaraju (+1600)
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