I went 2-0 pretty sweat free on Wednesday in the NHL to win 2.5 units as the Canes went up 3-1 in the series on the road with a chance to advance to the Cup Finals tonight in Game 5.
I’ll break these picks down when I preview the Stanley Cup Finals in depth, but I’m placing two futures. I am going with five units on the Vegas Golden Knights at +120. I’ll also take a +2000 longshot on Jack Eichel to win the Conn Smythe. He’s having a great playoffs quietly as one of the best two-way forwards in the league, and even though I think Mitch Marner wins it (no shot Gary gives it to Carter Hart), it isn’t worth betting Mitch at +130 (love the story of him winning the Cup and dragging his nuts across Toronto).
Game 5: Hurricanes vs. Canadiens (8:00)
This series is likely over at this point. The Canes started slow in Game 1 after their long layoff, losing this first game on the road from a bad first period, but since then have completely dominated this series. They can close out this Eastern Conference Finals tonight, and advance to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time since 2006 when they won the Cup to host the Golden Knights. I expected the Hurricanes to have a slow start after an eleven day layoff between sweeping the Flyers in the second round with the Habs coming off a Game 7 win against the Sabres just three days prior. Classic rest vs. rust scenario there and that’s exactly how it turned out in Game 1. The Canes scored just 33 seconds into the game on a Seth Jarvis goal, but then the Habs rattled off four goals in a row in the first 11:32 of the game, going up 4-1 on the road to start this series. Impressive start. Eric Robinson made it a game again, scoring for Carolina to make it 4-2 early in the second period, but Juraj Slafkovsky answered back in the third and then scored on the empty net for the Canadiens to open the series with a 6-2 win on the road and take home ice in the series, despite getting outshot 28-22, and giving the Hurricanes their first loss of the playoffs. Impressive win, but I pretty much completely threw that game out based off the long layoff that the Canes had. In Game 2, that game pretty much went exactly as I expected, with Carolina’s defense completely containing Montreal’s offense in a low scoring game. The Hurricanes scored just 2:33 into the game on a goal by Eric Robinson. About halfway through the first the Habs tied it up on a Josh Anderson goal, and it stay tied 1-1 till just 2:57 was left in the second period, and Nikolaj Ehlers gave the Canes the lead back. Josh Anderson tied it again on his second goal of the game with 7:09 left in regulation, taking it to overtime and then 3:29 into OT, Nikolaj Ehlers got his second of the game, and was the hero to win it for the Canes and tie up the series. I was surprised the game needed overtime (and lost my bet on the Canes in regulation), but the thing that really impressed me was how suppressed Montreal was offensively, only able to generate twelve shots on goal all game. Game 3 was pretty much the same with the Canes outshooting the Habs 38-13, but Montreal taking it to overtime before Carolina gave the Canadiens in their second loss in a row for the first time since mid-March. The Hurricanes scored first, with Shayne Gostisbehere scoring 8:24 into the game. Mike Matheson answered back to tie up the game with 4:32 left in the first, but only 54 seconds later, Taylor Hall gave Carolina the lead right back. 4:43 into the second period, Lane Hutson, who’s had a great playoffs, scored on the power play to tie it back up for the Habs. The game went to overtime and Andrei Svechnikov fired the puck through traffic (which looked like it got tipped by Aho), winning in overtime for the second game in a row to take a 2-1 series lead here on the road. The Hurricanes dominated Game 4. With three goals in the span of 2:47 late in the first period from Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, and Logan Stankoven, that game was over very early. Once again the Habs couldn’t generate anything offensively, getting shut out as the Canes outshot them 44-18 and capped off the game with an empty netter from Andrei Svechnikov to win it 4-0 on the road. That was the first time the Canadiens have lost three straight games since November 15th after breaking the mid-March run of not losing two in a row in Game 3. These three games were the first time in NHL history that a team recorded less than 18 shots in three consecutive playoff games. This thing’s over tonight. The Habs just aren’t quite ready to be in this spot yet, but they have a very bright future, especially considering that they’re the second youngest team in the NHL. Montreal hasn’t been able to generate anything this series after the rust fell off for the Canes in the first period of Game 1. I already have two units with two chances to cash it at a fantastic price on the Canes to win the series in six games or less, and I don’t expect this series to even need six. I’ll double down on that with another unit on Carolina in regulation. Since Game 1, because the Habs haven’t generated anything, I’ve liked the under in this series. I expect the Hurricanes to be leading this game going into the third period, which means Martin St. Louis will probably be pulling Dobes quite early to try to avoid elimination, leading to some likely empty netters. I will lay off the total tonight.
Series Bets
2u Carolina Hurricanes to win series in six games or less (-135)
Futures
5u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+120)
.5u Jack Eichel – Conn Smythe Winner (+2000)
Bets
1u Hurricanes in regulation (-150)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 68-75 (-7.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 37-33 (+10.16 units)
Playoffs Round 3 Record: 4-10 (-8.26 units)
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A Town's Zone 