After two very quick conference finals, the NHL Stanley Cup Finals begin tonight in Carolina with what should be a great matchup between the Carolina Hurricanes and the Vegas Golden Knights. This will be the first Finals appearance for the Canes since they won the Cup in 2006, while the Knights are in the Cup Finals for the third time in their nine year existence.
Despite the Hurricanes having a much better regular season, Vegas won both games between these teams back in October this year by multiple goals. In the first game between these teams on October 20th in Vegas, the Knights scored twice in the first period with goals from Jack Eichel and Pavel Dorofeyev in the span of 1:46. Sebastian Aho made it a 2-1 game in the second period, then in the third, Ivan Barbashev scored to go up 3-1, and Wild Bill Karlsson capped off the game with an empty netter for the Knights to win 4-1, in a game they were outshot 27-26. Eight days later in Carolina, it was a tight game through the first two periods, until the Golden Knights offense came alive in the third period. Andrei Svechnikov opened the scoring just 3:46 into the game, putting the Canes up 1-0. Pavel Dorofeyeve scored two straight goals to give the Knights a 2-1 first period lead. Jordan Martinook tied up the game again at 2 in the second period. Carolina took the lead back early in the third, with Logan Stankoven scoring to go up 3-2, 2:31 into the period. 3:39 later, Brett Howden tied it up at 3-3, followed by two goals in a row from Jack Eichel in 2:37 late in the period to get the lead and the Knights went on to win it 6-3, capped off by a Tomas Hertl empty netter to complete the season sweep. In that second game on the road, Vegas outshot the Canes 35-24.
The Carolina Hurricanes have had a fantastic season, winning the Eastern Conference,. They finished the season with a 52-22-5 record, cruising to the Metro Division win, 15 points ahead of the #2 seed Pittsburgh Penguins. They were great on both ends of the ice all season, winning the East, four points ahead of my Buffalo Sabres.
The Hurricanes are the first NHL team to start the playoffs 12-1 since the 1976 Canadiens. They’ve been fantastic, sweeping the first two rounds, losing Game 1 of the Eastern Conference Finals with a bad first period after an eleven day layoff, then winning the dominating the Eastern Conference Finals, winning the next four in a row to advance to their their first Stanley Cup Finals appearance since current head coach Rod Brind’Amour won the Cup as a player for the Canes back in 2006.
Carolina’s dominant defense got through a first round sweep of the Ottawa Senators, knocking off the second Wild Card team in four games. The Hurricanes didn’t trail for even a second of that series. Every game of the series was such a tight grind, with four low scoring close games, but the Canes figured out a way to get the wins in all four. After winning a close Game 1 with a 2-0 shutout, they followed it up winning 3-2 in double overtime (twice, after the first game winner got pulled off the board in Game 2 with Jordan Martinook scoring the game winner that actually counted, 13:53 into the second overtime period. As the series shifted to Ottawa for Game 3, the Hurricanes grinding out a 2-1 win on the road to put the Sens on the brink of elimination. Then to close out the series in Game 4, getting a 4-2 win with two empty netters to win it.
The Hurricanes pulled off their second sweep in a row of these playoffs to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, knocking off the Philadelphia Flyers in four games before the Habs and Sabres had even played Game 3 of their series. The Hurricanes dominated Game 1, which was kind of a snoozefest, as the Hurricanes dominated at home to a 3-0 shutout win, completely shutting down the Flyers offense. The Canes started hot, with Logan Stankoven scoring just 1:31 into the game and Jackson Blake giving them a 2-0 lead just 7:30 into the first. Stankoven added a second goal in the second period, putting the game out of reach for Philly. Carolina’s just so good defensively, limiting the Flyers to just nine shots on goal through 40 minutes. In Game 2, Philly started off hot to answer back, scoring two goals in 39 seconds to take a 2-0 lead just 4:41 into the game, giving the Canes their first deficit in a game all playoffs this year. Nikolaj Ehlers got Carolina back within one pretty quickly, then Seth Jarvis tied it up to force overtime with 8:39 left in regulation. 18:54 into overtime, Taylor Hall completed the comeback with the game winner to put the Hurricanes up 2-0 in the series on a 3-2 win at home. As the series shifted to Philly for Game 3, I thought that was the Flyers only chance to make this a series, and they got dominated again at home. Late in the first period, Jordan Stall gave the Hurricanes a lead on the power play, but early in the second, Trevor Zegras answering to tie it up. Late in the second though, Jalen Chatfield scored short handed for Carolina and that was all she wrote, as the Hurricanes scored two in the third to win 4-1 and put the Flyers on the brink of elimination. Although the Canes outshot the Flyers 40-17 in Game 4 on the road, that game was very tight, with great goaltending from Dan Vladar to keep Philly in it. Tyson Foerster made it 1-0 for the Flyers, 7:50 into the game. In the second period, Jackson Blake tied it up. Logan Stankoven gave Carolina the lead 4:13 into the third period, but it only took the Flyers 1:41 to tie it back up at 2-2, sending the game to overtime. 5:31 into overtime, Jackson Blake scored his second of the game, ending the series with Taylor Hall dishing the puck over to Blake, bouncing off the glove and over the shoulder of Vladar to end the series in four games.
I expected the Hurricanes to have a slow start after an eleven day layoff between sweeping the Flyers in the second round with the Habs coming off a Game 7 win against the Sabres just three days prior. Classic rest vs. rust scenario there and that’s exactly how it turned out in Game 1. The Canes scored just 33 seconds into the game on a Seth Jarvis goal, but then the Habs rattled off four goals in a row in the first 11:32 of the game, going up 4-1 on the road to start this series. Impressive start. Eric Robinson made it a game again, scoring for Carolina to make it 4-2 early in the second period, but Juraj Slafkovsky answered back in the third and then scored on the empty net for the Canadiens to open the series with a 6-2 win on the road and take home ice in the series, despite getting outshot 28-22, and giving the Hurricanes their first loss of the playoffs. Impressive win, but I pretty much completely threw that game out based off the long layoff that the Canes had. In Game 2, that game pretty much went exactly as I expected, with Carolina’s defense completely containing Montreal’s offense in a low scoring game. The Hurricanes scored just 2:33 into the game on a goal by Eric Robinson. About halfway through the first the Habs tied it up on a Josh Anderson goal, and it stay tied 1-1 till just 2:57 was left in the second period, and Nikolaj Ehlers gave the Canes the lead back. Josh Anderson tied it again on his second goal of the game with 7:09 left in regulation, taking it to overtime and then 3:29 into OT, Nikolaj Ehlers got his second of the game, and was the hero to win it for the Canes and tie up the series. I was surprised the game needed overtime (and lost my bet on the Canes in regulation), but the thing that really impressed me was how suppressed Montreal was offensively, only able to generate twelve shots on goal all game. Game 3 was pretty much the same with the Canes outshooting the Habs 38-13, but Montreal taking it to overtime before Carolina gave the Canadiens in their second loss in a row for the first time since mid-March. The Hurricanes scored first, with Shayne Gostisbehere scoring 8:24 into the game. Mike Matheson answered back to tie up the game with 4:32 left in the first, but only 54 seconds later, Taylor Hall gave Carolina the lead right back. 4:43 into the second period, Lane Hutson, who’s had a great playoffs, scored on the power play to tie it back up for the Habs. The game went to overtime and Andrei Svechnikov fired the puck through traffic (which looked like it got tipped by Aho), winning in overtime for the second game in a row to take a 2-1 series lead here on the road. The Hurricanes dominated Game 4. With three goals in the span of 2:47 late in the first period from Sebastian Aho, Jordan Staal, and Logan Stankoven, that game was over very early. Once again the Habs couldn’t generate anything offensively, getting shut out as the Canes outshot them 44-18 and capped off the game with an empty netter from Andrei Svechnikov to win it 4-0 on the road. That was the first time the Canadiens have lost three straight games since November 15th after breaking the mid-March run of not losing two in a row in Game 3. These three games were the first time in NHL history that a team recorded less than 18 shots in three consecutive playoff games. Game 5 was a dominant win for the Hurricanes that was over quite early. In the first period it pretty much felt like it was over, with a goal from Taylor Hall 9:17 into the game, then two goals by Logan Stankoven and Eric Robinson in the span of 1:40 to go up 3-0 at home heading into the second period. In the second, Jackson Blake and Shayne Gostisbehere really ended the series, taking a huge 5-0 lead into the third period of the game. Cole Caufield scored on the power play with 9:10 remaining in regulation, breaking Freddy Andersen’s shutout, then Seth Jarvis capped the game with an empty netter for the Canes to win Game 5 in a 6-1 blowout, ending the series with their four straight wins.
The Hurricanes were really solid this year on both ends of the ice. Offensively, they were second in scoring behind just the Avalanche, averaging 3.55 goals per game on an average of 2.88 shots per game. They’ve generated the second-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.6) in the NHL (also just behind Colorado) and the most high danger shots in the league. Carolina’s power play was great this year, scoring at just a 24.9% rate, the fourth-best in the NHL. They were led this season by Sebastian Aho (80 points, 53 assists) and Seth Jarvis (32 goals).
Defensively Carolina was very good as well, allowing an average of just 2.88 goals per game, the fifth-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 23.9 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the fifth-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.82) and the ninth-fewest high danger shots. The Hurricanes had the eleventh-best penalty kill unit in the NHL, at 80.6%. Starting in goal though the playoffs has been the veteran Freddy Andersen. Although he’s had plenty of experience, he wasn’t great this year, going 16-14-5, with a 3.05 GAA, and a .874 save percentage. Brandon Bussi, who was claimed off waivers became a star and a great story in goal this year, going an impressive 31-6-2, fourth-best in the NHL, with a sixth-best 2.47 GAA, and a .895 save percentage, with two shutouts this year.
Over the playoffs, the Hurricanes offense hasn’t been all that impressive, ranking seventh of the 16 teams that made the playoffs, scoring an average of 3.23 goals per game, but have generated the most expected goals, an average of 3.86 goals per game. Through the playoffs, it’s been their second line of Taylor Hall (five goals, eleven assists), Jackson Blake (five goals, ten assists), and Logan Stankoven (nine goals, three assists) that have shined. Defensively, as expected, Carolina’s been phenomenal. They’ve allowed by far the fewest goals of any team that made the playoffs, an average of just 1.62 per game, while giving up an average of just 2.24 goals expected per game. Freddy Andersen’s been great between the pipes, with a 1.41 GAA and a .931 save percentage.
The Golden Knights had plenty of their struggles this season, as the whole Pacific Division was pretty weak this season. They were quite disappointing with the way they played this season, especially when you look at how good that lineup is. In the midst of a losing run where they looked like crap at the end of March, Vegas fired head coach Bruce Cassidy, who led them to a Stanley Cup win three years ago and hired John Tortorella as their new interim head coach. Under Torts, the Knights went 7-0-1 in their last eight games, to win the Pacific with a 39-26-17 record on a ten game point streak, two points ahead of the Oilers.
The Golden Knights have had a great run through the playoffs, knocking off the 1st Wild Card, Utah Mammoth in six games in the first round, then the Ducks in six games in the second round, and pulling off an incredible upset in the Western Conference Finals, dominating the President’s Trophy winning Avalanche in a four game sweep. Pretty impressive for a team that was under .500 for the regular season and looked like they were missing the playoffs in March.
The first round as the Knights took on the first Wild Card Utah Mammoth was a ton of fun to watch. The Mammoth started Game 1 looking pretty good, but fell apart in the third period to lose 4-2 on the road with Vegas coming alive in the third period, with captain Mark Stone tying the game up in the third on the power play, Nic Dowd giving the Knights a lead less than two minutes later and the Russian cigarette machine, Ivan Barbashev capping it off with an empty netter. Utah bounced back in Game 2 on the road to knot up the series with a late goal by Logan Cooley to win it 3-2 and take home ice in the series. The Mammoth won 4-2 at home in Game 3 for the first ever NHL playoff game at the Delta Center, getting out to a 4-0 lead early and riding that with a fantastic 30 save night for Karel Vejmelka, with an impressive .938 save percentage as Utah got outshot 32-12. The Golden Knights answered back in Game 5, blowing an early 3-0 lead with four straight goals for the Mammoth at home, then winning it late, with just 52 seconds left in the first overtime with one of the original misfits, Shea Theodore scoring the game winner to tie the series with a 5-4 win on the road for Vegas. Game 6 was spectacular, with teams trading goals all game. The Mammoth took a 4-3 lead with two goals in a row in the third period, but Vegas tied it up to force overtime with Pavel Dorofeyev’s hat trick goal with just 53 seconds left in regulation. After a scoreless overtime period, Brett Howden ended the game, getting the Knights a 5-4 win at home in double overtime, shorthanded, set up by a good play on the wall by Mitch Marner.
The Golden Knights had a pretty solid second round series in the Pacific against the Anaheim Ducks, winning the series in six games. Game 1 was great. These teams battled, with a fantastic night in goal for Carter Hart, as the Ducks outshot Vegas 34-22, but the Golden Knights got the 3-1 win at home. The Knights lead till late, until Mikael Granlund tied it up with 6:03 left in regulation, but just 1:05 later, right after a questionable no-call, Pavel Dorofeyev set up a sick pass to Ivan Barbashev to get Vegas the lead back, capped off by a Mitch Marner empty netter. Not the best game for the Golden Knights and they still found a way to get a really solid win. The Ducks answered back though in Game 2, with a very good game for Lukas Dostal, having a shutout until the final six seconds of the game when Mark Stone scored on the power play, getting Anaheim a 3-1 win at home to even the series. As the series shift to Anaheim on Friday, the Golden Knights absolutely dominated that game, winning 6-2 on the road in a spectacular game for Mitch Marner. The Knights scored early in the first period and never gave up the lead, scoring three goals in the first period, including one shorthanded, and then Mitch Marner on the power play made it 3-0 with five seconds left in the first. Marner kept rolling with a natural hat trick, his first in a playoff game with an assist to go with it. Carter Hart shut out the Ducks until there was just 13.5 minutes left in the game, where it was already out of reach with Vegas up 5-0 going into the third. In Game 4 on Sunday after that effort on the road in Game 3, I thought the Golden Knights would win again, but these teams battled again, with both teams trading goals. Late in the second period, Alex Killorn gave the Ducks the lead back and early in the third, Ian Moore made it 4-2 Anaheim, putting the game just too far out of reach for the Knights, who scored one more late, but couldn’t tie it up, losing 4-3 on the road as the Ducks tied the series back up. Game 5 on Tuesday when the series shifted back to Vegas tied up was another grind of a game. Both teams traded power play goals in the first period, then relatively early in the second, Vegas got the lead back on a nice goal for Tomas Hertl. With 3:05 left in regulation, the Ducks tied it up on an Olen Zellweger goal, sending it to overtime, but Pavel Dorofeyev got set up by Jack Eichel to win the game 3-2 and playing Vegas Lights out of the Fortress. The Golden Knights dominated Game 6 on the road to win the period. Carter Hart was fantastic, making 31 saves on the 32 shots he saw on the way to a 5-1 blowout win for Vegas on the road.
I don’t think anyone in the hockey world could have anticipated the way that the Western Conference Finals played out, with the Vegas Golden Knights sweeping the President’s Trophy winning Colorado Avalanche. Vegas played fantastic hockey in Game 1 of this series. Carter Hart was fantastic in goal for the VGK, making 36 saves on the 38 shots he saw. The first period was a bit of a slow start, but Vegas played great in the second, getting out to a 2-0 lead, with AHL call up Dylan Coghlan scoring scoring the first of the game and Mitch Marner on a sick move set up Pavel Dorofeyev to go up 2-0 on the power play. Brett Howden made it 3-0 Vegas just 1:34 into the third period, which turned out to be the game winner. In the third, with a goal from Val Nichushkin, the Avs made it a game again, and with 2:21 left in regulation, on the power play, Gabe Landeskog made it 3-2, but the comeback effort for Colorado fell short with Nic Dowd capping off the game with an empty netter for the Knights to win it 4-2 and take home ice in this series. I thought the Avs really missed Cale Makar, especially quarterbacking the offense from the blue line. In Game 2, even without Makar, I thought the Avs would find a way to win it to tie up the series at home. They led 1-0 going into the third period on a goal by Ross Colton in the first period, but with 10:45 left in regulation, Jack Eichel tied the game on a beautiful shot and then set up the cigarette machine, Ivan Barbashev for the eventual game winner just 2:07 later, with Barbashev scoring his second in a row on the empty net to win it 3-1 for the Knights. That was the Av’s first loss of the year after leading after two periods, now 45-1 this season in that category. The Avalanche are looking to become just the second team in NHL history, along with the 1945 Red Wings to come back from down 0-2 in the conference finals after losing back to back home games to start the series. Going into Game 3 on Sunday night with Makar back in the lineup for the Avalanche, the Avs were 52-0-0 with a multi-goal lead this season. Colorado got up 3-0 in the first period, with two goals early from Gabe Landeskog and Nazem Kadri, then Jack Drury made it 3-0 on a shorthanded goal to head into the second period in pretty good shape. Just 19 seconds into the second, Mark Stone got Vegas back into the game, scoring on the power play in his return to the lineup. Less than four minutes later, Mitch Marner got his second assist of the game, setting up Wild Bill Karlsson for his first goal of the playoffs, and then with 7:14 left in the second, Keegan Kolesar tied up the game and made it a new game heading into the third. Mark Stone got his second point of the night, 8:21 into the third period, setting up Tomas Hertl for the eventual game winner and Brett Howden capped it off with an empty netter for the Knights to win it 5-3. The Avs outshot Vegas 35-23, but Carter Hart (.914 save percentage) far outplayed Scott Wedgewood (.818 save percentage) to get the win. The other big takeaway from Game 3 is that even though Makar got back in, Nathan MacKinnon got banged up, leaving the game in the second period right before the tying goal, blocking a shot. 4:42 into Game 4, Mark Stone got off on a breakaway, scoring the first goal of the game, beating Blackwood with a quick little move in front. The Vegas defense was spectacular, not really giving up any quality chances to a frustrated Avs team. With 5:45 left in regulation, Cole Smith scored to make it 2-0 Knights with an insurance goal. Gabriel Landeskog broke Carter Hart’s shutout with 2:03 left, but Vegas held off the comeback effort for the Avs to complete the sweep with a 2-1 win at home.
Vegas was a little bit better than league average on both ends of the ice this year. Offensively, they averaged 3.22 goals per game, ranking 14th in the NHL, on an average of 29 shots per game. They’ve generated the 13th-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.16) in the league and the eleventh-most high danger shots. The Knights’ power play was pretty good, scoring at a 24.6% rate, the sixth-best in the NHL. The star players led the way for Vegas this year. Jack Eichel led them with 90 points, 27 goals, and 63 assists. Mitch Marner added in 80 points, 24 goals, and 56 points. Captain Mark Stone had 73 points, 28 goals, and 45 assists in just 60 games, and Pavel Dorofeyev led them in goals for the second year in a row with 37.
Defensively the Golden Knights were pretty good, allowing the twelfth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.95 goals per game, on an average of just 24.4 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the just the second-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (2.69), trailing just the Senators and the fourth-fewest high danger shots. The Vegas penalty kill unit was very good at 81.4%, ranking sixth in the NHL. The goaltending for the Knights had their issues at times. Carter Hart, who was signed halfway into the season, was 11-3-3, with a 2.71 GAA and .891 save percentage. Adin Hill, their Cup winning goalie, went 10-9-6, with a 3.04 GAA, an .871 save percentage, and a shutout. Akira Schmid actually played the most games for them this year, going 16-10-6, with a 2.59 GAA, a .893 save percentage, and two shutouts.
The Knights have been phenomenal on both ends of the ice through these playoffs. Offensively they’ve scored the second most goals per game of all the teams that made the playoffs, an average of 3.63 per game. They’ve generated the fourth most expected goals per game, an average of 3.33. Mitch Marner’s been fantastic through these playoffs, leading the team with 21 points (seven goals, 14 assists) in his first time out of the second round as he drags his nuts across the city of Toronto. Jack Eichel’s been fantastic as well, with 18 points (two goals, 16 assists), with Pavel Dorofeyev and Brett Howden each having ten goals through these playoffs. Defensively, they’ve allowed an average of just 2.38 goals per game, the third fewest of all the playoff teams, giving up an average of 2.68 expected goals. Carter Hart has been great in the playoffs, with a 2.37 GAA, and a .917 save percentage in the Knights’ twelve games.
I think this series is going to be phenomenal, with very good defensive play for both teams. Both of the defenses on these teams are huge, and Freddy Andersen and Carter Hart have both been very good in goal. I think the key difference between these teams though are the star players offensively for Vegas. The Hurricanes don’t have any players that compare to Mitch Marner, Jack Eichel, and Mark Stone. I think that offensive edge, gets the silver trophy for the Golden Knights for the second time in four years. The Knights are just so much better offensively, and I expect them to get the win, just as they won the two regular season games between them. Last week before the Hurricanes even played Game 5, I placed a five unit future on the Golden Knights to win the Cup at +120, which I thought was a solid value. It’s even better now at +130. Let’s Go Knights!!
Expecting the Golden Knights to win the series, even on the road, I like them to win Game 1 tonight. I’ll take them for a unit.
I don’t really know what to expect out of the totals in the games of this series. The totals went 1-1 in the two regular season games they played. Hurricanes games during the regular season trended over, with the over going 44-37-1 but the under went 10-3. The Golden Knights trending under going 40-39-3 during the regular season and 7-6-3 in the playoffs. I’d slightly lean the unders with how good on the back end both teams are, but I’ll stay off it in Game 1.
On the player prop side of this series, I’ll mainly just be focusing on Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner. I expect Marner to win the Conn Smythe, but at +130, I don’t think that’s worth betting. When I placed my future on Vegas, I also took a shot for half a unit at +2000 on Jack to win it. He’s not far behind Mitch stat wise, and if he steps up, I think he’s really the only player beside Marner to win it. The only other guy that I think could deserve it is Carter Hart, but I don’t see any shot Gary gives him it. So 20:1 on Eichel I think’s a great price. In Game 1 tonight, I’ll also parlay Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner to each get a point for half a unit.
Futures
5u Vegas Golden Knights – Stanley Cup Champions (+120)
.5u Jack Eichel – Conn Smythe Winner (+2000)
Game 1 Bets
1u Golden Knights ML (+130)
.5u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mitch Marner 1+ point each (-120)
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