Coming off my win last week on Russell Henley in the playoff, this week the PGA Tour is back to the elevated events with The Memorial Tournament at Jack’s Place, Muirfield Village in Columbus. Let’s win back to back!

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Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7569 yards, Jack Nicklaus designed, the Par 5s are reachable in two but have the second lowest going for the green percentage on tour besides Colonial, six of the seven most difficult holes are Par 4s between 450-500 yards, bentgrass fairways and greens, tree lined easy to hit fairways (~68%) with deep fairway bunkers that are penal (only about 40% of golfers that hit fairway bunkers make par), the fairways get more narrow around the 300 yard mark, 68 bunkers, 13 water hazards that are in play on eleven holes, water is placed in tricky spots with creeks running through the course with some on entire holes, less than driver course that favors placement for approach shots and this course ranks in bottom 10 courses on tour in driving distance but high driving accuracy vs. tour average (~68% vs. 62%), difficult to hit out of thick 3-4.5 inch rough, longest proximity inside 100 yards from the rough of any course on tour, harder than average greens to hit (~61% vs. tour average 66%), scrambling is very difficult at this course and top five most difficult on tour (~53% vs. tour average 58%), second lowest birdie+ % from the rough on tour, extremely fast tiny greens with heavy undulation, despite those greens they have the lowest three putt rate of any course on tour and its in the top five of 5-10 feet and 10-15 feet, many of the greens slope back to front, water and greenside bunkers in play (this course has the longest proximity on tour from shots out of green side bunkers and they’re the hardest on tour), rain softening the course can make it play much easier, in 2016 at -1 was the only year since 2003 that the cut line was under par

Lots of renovation were done to the course before the 2021 season with all of the grass on the fairways and greens redone, adjusted bunkers, changed contours to the greens, added a bunch of new trees and new tee boxes that when maxed out can lengthen the course around 100 yards. The only significant changes to these is the greens and the resodding of the greens will make them very firm for the first few years. The new contours of the greens makes course history slightly less of a factor since reading the greens is newer for everyone.

Tournament Notes

• Cut is 50 and ties
• Approach here is 3.5x more important here than SG: OTT (most courses it is around 2.5x) and SG: ARG is actually more significant than SG: OTT here
• Prior to Billy Horschel in 2022, the last 14 winners here had ranked in the top 10 for the season in SG: Approach
• In 2021, Jon Rahm was forced to withdraw with a six stroke lead after Saturday’s round with a bullshit positive COVID test even though he was completely healthy. He would have easily won this tournament by a touchdown if that wasn’t the case and went on to win the US Open two weeks later
• The 2020 Workday Championship was also held here the week prior to the Memorial with a slightly easier setup, which Morikawa won
• Americans have won here eleven of the past 15 years
• Six of the last eleven years this tournament was decided by a playoff
• Hideki Matsuyama in 2014 was the last player to win his first time here
• Justin Rose in 2010 was the last player to win here who missed a cut the previous year
• 16 of the last 18 winners here ranked T10 in Approach for the week
• In 2022, 5 of the T6 finishes finished in the T10 in Approach. In 2021, 5 of the T5 and 6 of the T10 finished in the T10 in Approach

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Proximity 150-200 yards, SG: ARG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (22.6%), 175-200 yards (21.9%)

Note: 175-200 yards range might be more important with the lengthening of the course and the more difficult holes on the course being longer Par 4s that leave a longer approach shot

Field

72 golfers – Signature event with a very strong invitational field, the only two eligible golfers taking the week off are Collin Morikawa and Viktor Hovland

Defending Champion: Scottie Scheffler (-10)

Runner Up Last Year: Ben Griffin (-6)

One and Done: J.J. Spaun

One and Done Considerations: Scheffler, McIlroy, Aberg, Fitzpatrick, Spaun

Players

Ludvig Aberg: 10100: +1600 – He’s been towards the top of leaderboards every week and just hasn’t put it all together, second in my model this week behind Scheffler, has gained strokes T2G in each of his last ten events, gained ballstriking in his last nine straight events, gained in SG:ARG in eight of his last ten events, his skillset maps out great for this course and he’s trending upwards, gaining over a stroke on difficult to very difficult courses, gaining over a stroke on tournaments with very strong fields, solid course history with T16 and T5 finishes here the last two years, 17,4,8,4,21,5,5,3,20,37,MC,WD,3,23,20,21,7,9,23,8,36,MC,13 finishes in his last 23 events, 1st in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 9th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 28th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ Yards, 28th in Sand Saves, 15th in SG: ARG, 27th in Putting, 7th in GIRs Gained, 35th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 9th in Bogey Avoidance

Matt Fitzpatrick: 9600: +1950 – Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS, 14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 20 events, great course history here with 31,5,9,MC,MC,3,68 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 42nd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 20th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 5th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 46th in Sand Saves, 8th in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 9th in GIRs Gained, 18th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 6th in Bogey Avoidance

Alex Smalley: 8000: +5500 – Great form coming into this week after his T2 at the PGA Championship with six straight T25 finishes and four T10s in that span with 3,2,17,7,14,21,46,24,52,19,35,MC,44,40,62,3 finishes in his last 16 events, gained at least 1.5 strokes on approach in four of his last five events, gained at least 1.5 strokes OTT in four of his last five events, has gained strokes putting in each of his last five events, missed the cut here both of his times here in 2023 and 2022 but he was a much different golf at that point, 7th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 15th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 18th in Sand Saves, 27th in SG: ARG, 18th in Putting, 7th in GIRs Gained, 23rd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 10th in Bogey Avoidance

J.J. Spaun: 8000: +4300 – Playing well lately and popping on leaderboards lately, won already this year at the Valero Texas Open, major champion after his US Open win last year, 6,MC,5,14,25,MC,1,MC,24 finishes in his last nine events after a lousy start to the season following a great fall swing, 40,4,6,25,23,2,23,MC,14,1,MC,6,37,12 finishes in his last 13 events, MC,30,MC,MC finishes here, 3rd in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 1st in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 36th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 43rd in Sand Saves, 46th in SG: ARG, 69th in Putting, 16th in GIRs Gained, 1st in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 38th in Bogey Avoidance

Aaron Rai: 7500: +7200 – Coming off his PGA Championship win with a 5th place finish at Myrtle Beach the week before, has been a bit inconsistent though this year, bentgrass is his best putting surface, 1,5,49,MC,MC,23,28,73,50,22,5,34,47,17,33 finishes in his last 15 events, MC,MC,26 finishes here, 10th in Approach, 39th in SG: OTT, 19th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 20th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 26th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 48th in Sand Saves, 37th in SG: ARG, 64th in Putting, 4th in GIRs Gained, 6th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 48th in Bogey Avoidance, I like him as a longer shot this week

Akshay Bhatia: 7400: +7400 – Won this season at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, seems to have addressed his short game problems this year and his putting has been good, hasn’t really put it all together since his win, 16,22,MC finishes here the last three years, 28,MC,37,23,16,MC,MC,13,1,16,6,3,MC,MC14,MC,11,26,6,WD,25,30,26,54 finishes in his last 24 events, 28th in Approach, 61st in SG: OTT, 10th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 18th in Proximity 150–200 Yards, 18th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 2nd in Sand Saves, 21st in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 48th in GIRs Gained, 17th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 32nd in Bogey Avoidance, I like him as a longer shot this week

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (10%)

Proximity 150-200 yards (15%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (15%)

Putting (5%)

GIRs Gained (5%)

Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I’ll be looking at SG: Approach leaders live after Round 1 and 2 for Live Betting opportunities with how important that stat is on this course.
• Treat this like a no cut event with less than 20 golfers getting cut
• I’ve hit the winner here the last three years in a row on Scheffler (twice) and Hovland
• I made some slight adjustments to my model this year based on what’s now available in The Rabbit Hole in addition to what used to be in Fantasy National
• I could see this be the week that Scottie wins, but I’m not touching it at +310 but I am betting everyone this week in the non-Scottie market

Bets

Outrights (without Scheffler)

1u Ludvig Aberg (+1320)

.6u Matt Fitzpatrick (+1900)

.3u J.J. Spaun (+3400)

.3u Alex Smalley (+4000)

.2u Aaron Rai (+6600)

.2u Akshay Bhatia (+6600)

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