I hit another winner last week on Chris Gotterup. Let’s keep on rolling as the PGA Tour and DP World Tour (with some top LIV golfers) head to the Renaissance Club for the co-sanctioned Genesis Scottish Open!

https://www.instagram.com/reels/DajzqwqO5fZ

Course Breakdown

Par 70 (used to be a Par 71), 7237 yards, the scoring in this event is highly dependent on weather with wind being the biggest defense on the course with the winning scores ranging from -7 to -22, links style course with some parkland elements, different setup than a typical Par 70 course with ten Par 4s (seven ranging from 448-505 yards), five Par 3s and three Par 5s, only four holes play alongside the ocean but the course has all of the other elements of a links course, 83 bunkers, average to above average sized rolling fairways with a good amount of undulation and mounds, fairways usually play firm and fast, much lower than average driving accuracy (~52% vs. tour average ~62%), much longer than tour average driving distance (~294 yards vs. ~284), deep fairway pot bunkers that are pretty hard to get out of (18% GIR rate here from a fairway bunker vs. tour average ~49%), first cut of rough isn’t penal whatsoever if you just miss the fairway but gets much thicker as you go farther out, a few trees and some high fescue in areas if you miss wildly off the tee, no water hazards in play, pretty slow fescue greens that can see big inconsistencies in speed from hole to hole, elevated and large massively undulating upside down bowl shaped greens that should play firm but slow, lots of pot bunkers guarding greens and large runoff areas, the routing of the holes was changed around this year (matching the 2019 European

Tournament Notes

• This is a co-sanctioned event by the DP World Tour and PGA Tour, the fifth year this has been the case
• This will be the eighth year this course has hosted this event for the DP World Tour
• Final event to qualify for The Open
• Early start at 2:00 AM ET since they’re in Scotland, so make sure to lock in your picks early
• This is the first PGA Tour event that golfers on LIV who also have contracts with the DP World Tour, like Jon Rahm and Tyrrell Hatton are allowed to play

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring

Main proximity distance range on approach: 0-75 yards (26%), 200+ yards (20.2%)

Field

156 golfers – Fantastic field strength with PGA Tour, DP World Tour…and LIV golfers

Defending Champion: Chris Gotterup (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Rory McIlroy & Marco Penge (-13)

One and Done: Tyrrell Hatton

One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Rory McIlroy, Jon Rahm, Tyrrell Hatton

Players

Rory McIlroy: 12000: +990 – One of the best players in the field, former winner here in 2023 and elite course history with 2,4,1,MC,34 finishes here, won The Masters back to back this year with 32,12,7,19,1,46,WD,2,14,23,12,7 finishes in his last twelve events, 12th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 33rd in Good Drives, 15th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 32nd in Par 5 Scoring, 16th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 10th in Birdie+ Gained, 9th in Bogey Avoidance, his odds at almost double Scottie make him worth betting

Jon Rahm: 11500: +1857 – One of the top players in the field with Scottie and Rory, crushes the ball, won on LIV twice this year with 2,16,8,1,2,5,1,2,2 finishes on LIV this season, T2 finish at the PGA Championship, MC at the US Open, and T38 at The Masters this year, T55 finish his only time here in 2022, 32nd in Approach, 3rd in SG: OTT, 53rd in Good Drives, 4th in Par 3 Scoring, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 37th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 79th in Par 5 Scoring, 43rd in Proximity 200+ Yards, 6th in SG: ARG, 32nd in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 93rd in Birdie+ Gained, 42nd in Bogey Avoidance (stats are skewed since there isn’t publicly available strokes gained data from LIV)

Matt Fitzpatrick: 9900: +2150 – Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS, 4,22,2,36,14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 24 events, good course history with 4,39,MC,6,2,14,34 finishes here, 4th in Approach, 55th in SG: OTT, 18th in Good Drives, 6th in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 23rd in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 25th in Par 5 Scoring, 42nd in Proximity 200+ Yards, 1st in SG: ARG, 89th in Putting, 19th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 45th in Birdie+ Gained, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance

Wyndham Clark: 9200: +3400 – Two time major winner now after his second win at the US Open, crushing it tee to green and has been playing great this year, has two wins in his last five events this year with the US Open and The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, 5,1,11,3,1,MC,16,21,MC,MC,42,41,58,35,65,13 finishes in his last 15 events,, solid course history here with 11,10,25,16 finishes here, 21st in Approach, 67th in SG: OTT, 67th in Good Drives, 3rd in Par 3 Scoring, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 12th in Par 5 Scoring, 30th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 5th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogey Avoidance, playing in the without the big guns market so I can hit a double outright

Tyrrell Hatton: 8900: +3400 – Plays well on tough major championship courses and has a good major track record, plays well in the wind, has had a lot of success in Scotland both here and at the Alfred Dunhill Links Championship on the DP World Tour (where he’s won three times and was the runner up three times), great course history with no finish here worse than T24 with 6,24,18,22,14 finishes here, won this year at Valderrama with 1,WD,17,5,38,19,45,3,47 finishes on LIV this season, missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has been elite at majors this year with a T7 finish at the US Open and a T3 finish at The Masters, 10th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 15th in Good Drives, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in Par 4 Scoring, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 5th in Par 5 Scoring, 43rd in Proximity 200+ Yards, 13th in SG: ARG, 91st in Putting, 92nd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 117th in Birdie+ Gained, 83rd in Bogey Avoidance (stats are skewed since there isn’t publicly available strokes gained data from LIV), playing in the without the big guns market so I can hit a double outright

Alex Fitzpatrick: 7900: +5500 – Has been playing great golf since getting his tour card with the Zurich win with his brother, his ballstriking has been fantastic, missed the cut here both of the last two years, 7,23,20,6,75,4,9 finishes on the PGA Tour since getting his tour card, 5th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 5th in Good Drives, 53rd in Par 3 Scoring, 24th in Par 4 Scoring, 56th in Par 4 Scoring 451–500 Yards, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 25th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 86th in SG: ARG, 102nd in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 Feet, 17th in Birdie+ Gained, 17th in Bogey Avoidance, playing in the without the big guns market so I can hit a double outright

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Good Drives (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (5%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet (5%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights

1.5u Rory McIlroy (+990)

.7u Jon Rahm (+1857)

.5u Matt Fitzpatrick (+2150)

Outrights with McIlroy, Fitzpatrick, Rahm, Schauffele, Scheffler

.5u Wyndham Clark (+2350)

.5u Tyrrell Hatton (+2350)

.4u Alex Fitzpatrick (+3700)

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