The best golfers in the world all head to Royal Birkdale in England for the first time since Spieth’s crazy win in 2017 for The Open Championship, the year’s final major championship. Let’s win!

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Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7223 yards (67 yards longer than it was in 2017), very difficult course, since 2017 some of the holes have been moved and changed with the routing of the back changed up, unnecessary bunkers have been removed, more of the course’s natural links areas are exposed, short grass collection areas near multiple greens have been largely expanded, all of those new changes should better reward good shots but could make around the green play tougher, this setup is a bit different than a lot of other courses in the Open rotation, wind is the biggest defense of the course and change from hole to hole (unlike a regular links course where they go all in one direction on the front and the other on the back), 123 bunkers (a lot have been repositioned since 2017), water in play on just one hole, two of the Par 3s are under 185 yards and the other two are over 220 yards including a new 241 yard Par 3 15th hole, three of the Par 4s are under 400 yards and three are over 500 yards, both Par 5s (both in the last six holes on the course) should be reachable in two by most but the previous easiest one on the course has been lengthened and goes into the prevailing winds, narrow hard to hit firm and flat fairways, if you miss the fairways there aren’t any flat lies, lots of mounds and large sand dunes when you miss the fairways, tall thick penal rough the farther from the fairway you go, there are a lot of deep bunkers in front of the greens which don’t let you play the usual run ups to the greens, fescue/bentgrass mix greens that are faster than usual for Open Championships 

Tournament Notes

• Final major of the year.
• Top 70 and ties make the cut, more than the usual T65 and ties.
• This is the only event of the year besides The Masters with no split tees, so everyone starts on 1 and no one starts on 10. This means there’s going to be some long days of golf and stacking tee times for weather splits has to be done so in shorter pockets than in just AM/PM waves.
• This will be the eleventh time this course has hosted The Open, the most recent in 2017 when on the 13th hole Jordan Spieth pulled off a miracle up and down bogie from the driving range to beat Matt Kuchar, which was one of my favorite Open Championships to ever watch.
• Nine of the previous ten winners at this course had multiple major championship wins in their career
• Since 2011, every winner of The Open has either won a major or came in second at a major prior to their win.
• Since Henrik Stenson winning in 2016, every winner besides Brian Harman in 2024 of The Open Championship have finished at least T11 in one of their three previous majors (Harman finished 6th the previous year at The Open).
• In the last 13 years, only Ernie Els and Shane Lowry were winners outside of the Top 30 in the world in the year that they won.
• Since 2011, outside of Ernie Els in 2012, each Champion Golfer either had a win or three Top T13’s in their six starts prior to winning the Open.
• Since 2008, only Collin Morikawa had fewer than four previous Open appearances before winning the Open.
• Prior to the last three years with Scottie Scheffler (who was T7 in 2024), Xander Schauffele in 2024 (who finished 17th in 2023) and Brian Harman in 2023 (who was 6th in 2022), no one since Paddy Harrington (who won for the second straight year) in 2008 had finished better than T30 in their previous Open start.
• Seven of the past 15 winners had missed the cut in their Open the year prior to becoming champion, so history the prior year doesn’t matter as much but experience on links style courses is important.
• Eight of the last 14 winners were 32 years old or older.
• Eleven of the last 13 winners had a T20 in one of the other majors that season.
• 17 of the last 20 winners finished T9 or better in a previous year.
• Two of the last twelve winners won their last start prior to winning the Open and four of the last twelve had a win in one of their two lead in events.
• Seven of the last twelve winners had a win in one of the previous five starts prior to winning The Open. The outliers were Zach Johnson in 2015 who had three T10s in the five starts prior to winning at St. Andrews, Shane Lowry in 2019 who had three T10s in his four prior starts, Collin Morikawa in 2020 who had two T5s in his previous two starts and four T10s in his prior five starts, Cam Smith in 2022 who had three T13s in his previous six starts and a win at The Players earlier in the season, and Brian Harman in 2023 who went into The Open with 12,9,2 finishes in his previous three events.
• Nine of the last twelve winners had a T10 at The Open in the five years prior to their win. Morikawa in 2020 (who won in his first Open Championship), Cam Smith in 2022 (who’s best finish was 20th prior), and Xander Schauffele in 2024 (who was 17,15 the two prior years and previously finished 2nd at The Open in 2018) are the three outliers.
• The last three Open Championship winners have had success at the Scottish Open at the Renaissance Club the previous week since that event became co-sanctioned between the PGA Tour and the DP World Tour (Scheffler was T8 last year, Xander was T15 in 2024, Brian Harman was T12 in 2023, and Cam Smith was T10 in 2022).
• Each of the last four winners of the Open Championship finished T12 or better at the Scottish Open the week prior to winning.
• Each of the last five winners of the Open Championship played in the Scottish Open the week prior to winning (Collin Morikawa missed the cut in Scotland).
• The five players that best fit the trends for winners this week are: Rory McIlroy, Matt Fitzpatrick, Chris Gotterup, Robert MacIntyre, and Tom Kim

Key Stats

Approach, SG: ARG, Par 4 Scoring, Bogie Avoidance

Field

156 golfers – major championship field with the best golfers in the world on all three tours

Defending Champion (Royal Portrush Golf Club): Scottie Scheffler (-17)

Runner Up Last Year (Royal Portrush Golf Club): Harris English (-13)

One and Done: Sam Burns

One and Done Considerations: Matt Fitzpatrick, Rory McIlroy, Scottie Scheffler, Tyrrell Hatton, Sam Burns, Tom Kim (I’m really running out of golfers here)

Players

Rory McIlroy: 11900: +950 – One of the best players in the field, fits all the historical trends for The Open winners, former Open Champion in 2014 with elite major history completing his Grand Slam with his Masters win last year and won The Masters back to back this year with 7,32,12,7,19,1,46,WD,2,14,23,12,7 finishes in his last 13 events, finished T4 here in 2017, 7,MC,6,3,46,MC,2,4,5,1,MC,60,25,3,47,42 finishes at Open Championships, 42nd in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 55th in Good Drives Gained, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 51st in Sand Saves, 29th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 17th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 18th in Bogie Avoidance, 36th in GIRs Gained, used Fanduel promo on him to make it a double chance on an outright OR first round leader to cash

Matt Fitzpatrick: 10000: +1750 – Best player on the PGA this season with three wins including the Zurich where he got his brother his tour card to go with his Valspar and RBC Heritage wins along with a second place finish at THE PLAYERS, fits all the historical trends for The Open winners and is the best statistical fit in the field for ballstriking, accuracy, and scrambling, former major winner at the 2022 US Open, finished T44 here in 2017 early in his career, has been good in majors this year with 22,14,18 finishes this season, 4,50,41,21,26,20,MC,44,MC finishes at Open Championships, 3,4,22,2,36,14,52,1,18,1,2,41,24,14,9,63,1,32,21,5,5,6,17,32,8 finishes in his last 25 events, 3rd in Approach, 76th in SG: OTT, 14th in Good Drives Gained, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 38th in Sand Saves, 2nd in SG: ARG, 72nd in Putting, 18th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 7th in Bogie Avoidance, 4th in GIRs Gained, 1st in scrambling from the short grass

Tyrrell Hatton: 8900: +3800 – Plays well on tough major championship courses and has a good major track record, plays very well in difficult and windy conditions, missed the cut at the PGA Championship but has been elite at majors this year with a T7 finish at the US Open and a T3 finish at The Masters, 16,MC,20,11,MC,6,51,MC,5,MC finishes at Open Championships, missed the cut here in 2017, coming off a T17 finish at the Genesis Scottish Open last week and won this year at Valderrama with 1,WD,17,5,38,19,45,3,47 finishes on LIV this season, 9th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 31st in Good Drives Gained, 30th in Par 4 Scoring, 15th in Sand Saves, 10th in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 87th in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 84th in Bogie Avoidance, 66th in GIRs Gained, used a 100% profit boost on DK to bet him in the winner without McIlroy & Scheffler market

Wyndham Clark: 8200: +3900 – Two time major winner now after his second win at the US Open this season, crushing it tee to green and has been playing great this year, has two wins in his last five events this year with the US Open and The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, 13,5,1,11,3,1,MC,16,21,MC,MC,42,41,58,35,65,13 finishes in his last 16 events, first time playing this course, 1,MC,21 finishes at majors this season, 4,MC,33,76 finishes at Open Championships, 29th in Approach, 65th in SG: OTT, 66th in Good Drives Gained, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 48th in Sand Saves, 8th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 23rd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 4th in Bogie Avoidance, 35th in GIRs Gained

Sam Burns: 7800: +5500 – Just had a baby last week which was why he did not play at the Scottish Open, plays hard courses with strong fields very well, has been elite at majors this year with a 2nd place finish at the US Open, T26 finish at the PGA Championship and T7 finish at The Masters, first time playing this course, 12,2,20,4,26,37,38,16,7,21,13,MC,MC,6,MC,27,13,7,4,28 finishes in his last 20 events, 45,31,MC,42,76 finishes at Open Championships, 16th in Approach, 57th in SG: OTT, 71st in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 36th in Sand Saves, 62nd in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 33rd in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 15th in Bogie Avoidance, 11th in GIRs Gained

Tom Kim: 6800: +5500 – I was a week early betting him at the John Deere Classic after his fantastic 3rd place finish at the US Open where he gained strokes in every aspect of his game and is now coming off his win last week at the Genesis Scottish Open, fits all the historical trends for The Open winners, plays hard courses with strong fields very well, has gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his last seven events, 1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 18 events, first time playing this course, MC,MC,2,47 finishes at Open Championships, 2nd in Approach, 84th in SG: OTT, 15th in Good Drives Gained, 20th in Par 4 Scoring, 30th in Sand Saves, 24th in SG: ARG, 59th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet, 3rd in Bogie Avoidance, 16th in GIRs Gained

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Good Drives Gained (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained Inside 15 feet (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

GIRs Gained (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Bets

Outrights/First Round Leader Double Chance

1.5u Rory McIlroy (+950)

Outrights without McIlroy & Scheffler

.8u Matt Fitzpatrick (+1400)

.4u Wyndham Clark (+3100)

.3u Tom Kim (+4300)

.3u Sam Burns (+4950)

.2u Tyrrell Hatton (+6000)

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