This week the PGA Tour heads to the now Par 70 redesigned Detroit Golf Club for the final Rocket Classic in a birdiefest event that could be fun with some decent golfers in the field.

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Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7370 yards, Donald Ross design, birdiefest, this year Par goes down from 72 to 70 with the 7th and 17th holes going from short Par 5s to long Par 4s, the course is a combo of the North and South course on the property, flattest course on tour so this should play much shorter than the yardage of the course, seven of the Par 4s range from 395-455 yards, four of the Par 4s are under 400 yards, six of the Par 4s are over 450 yards (four over 500 yards), two of the Par 3s are over 200 yards, one of the remaining two Par 5s is reachable in two, 87 bunkers, water in play on only one hole, tree lined fairways, fairway bunkers in the landing zones but not much trouble, undulating fairways and greens, less than driver on some holes but most guys still bomb it and average drives here were 12 yards longer than average, one of the longest average driving distance on tour (~296 yards vs. 284 yards tour average) since there is a ton of roll after it gets burned out with 50% of drives here going longer than 300 yards, mainly straight holes (not many doglegs on Donald Ross designs), slightly below average fairway widths, easier to hit fairways than tour average (66% vs. 62% tour average), 3.5-4 inch rough which hasn’t really been penal at all, missing wildly off the tee could lead to approach shots over trees from nice lies on other fairways and should be easy for these guys to hit in most spots, average sized greens, easy to hit greens (73% GIR vs. tour average 66%), bunkers surrounding the greens, greens slope heavily from back to front with heavy undulation, Bluegrass greens (mix of mostly POA with around 20% bentgrass), some of the most birdies and eagles here of any courses on tour

Tournament Notes

• 2019 was the first year that this tournament was held, replacing the Quicken Loans National and was the first PGA event at Detroit Golf Club
• Everyone in the T20 in 2019 here gained strokes putting. Putting matters here but its the one stat thats so variable that its not worth even looking at on a week to week basis. This is pretty much a putting contest since its a very easy course.
• In 2020, of the top 16 guys in SG: OTT they all made the cut besides Bubba and the rest of them besides Kevin Chappell (T62) finished in the T30
• Even with very high winds in 2021, the winning score was still -18 and more than half the golfers that made the cut still finished -10 or better.
• Approach and SG: OTT are much closer here than a lot of other courses and guys can bomb and gouge it, but that’s not the only path to success.
• This year will be the final Rocket Classic as they have chosen not to renew their sponsorship for 2027, likely ending this tournament unless it becomes a Challenger Series event on the new PGA Tour schedule under difference sponsors.

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Birdie+ Gained, Opportunities Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (23.1%), 150-175 yards. (18.1%), 125-150 yards (17.9%)

Corollary Courses

East Lake Golf Club (Tour Championship), Sedgefield Country Club (Wyndham Championship) – both similar Donald Ross design courses

Field

140 golfers – pretty solid field strength for this tournament

Defending Champion: Aldrich Potgieter (-22 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Max Greyserman & Chris Kirk (-22)

One and Done: Jackson Koivun

One and Done Considerations: Si Woo Kim, Wyndham Clark, J.J. Spaun, Cameron Young, Jackson Koivun, Ben Kohles, Patrick Cantlay

Players

Si Woo Kim: 9600: +2400 – First in my model this week and statistically the best course fit in the field, playing very well lately in much tougher fields coming off his T6 at The Open with 6,9,11,84,42,31,28,8,17,15,8,MC,MC,38,19,24,21,12 finishes in his last 18 events, 84,14,48,57,MC finishes here, 6th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 85th in Driving Distance, 10th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 87th in Proximity 200+ yards, 8th in Par 3 Scoring, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained

Jackson Koivun: 9400: +2350 – Coming off his debut win last week at the 3M Open in just his third PGA Tour event since becoming a pro, this kid’s going to be very good and was the top ranked amateur ever, 1,10,MC,23,4,5,6,11,MC,48,56,MC,52 finishes in PGA Tour events both as a pro and an amateur, missed the cut here in 2024 as an amateur which I’m not taking into account at all, 15th in Approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 71st in Driving Distance, 15th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 30th in Proximity 200+ yards, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 88th in SG: ARG, 2nd in Putting, 74th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 5th in Birdie+ Gained

Wyndham Clark: 9300: +2200 – Two time major winner now after his second win at the US Open this season, crushing it tee to green and has been playing great this year, has two wins in his last five events this year with the US Open and The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, MC,13,5,1,11,3,1,MC,16,21,MC,MC,42,41,58,35,65,13 finishes in his last 17 events, MC,8,17 finishes here in 2025, 2022, and 2019, 32nd in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 23rd in Driving Distance, 70th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 55th in Proximity 200+ yards, 2nd in Par 3 Scoring, 1st in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 42nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained

J.J. Spaun: 8700: +3100 – His ballstriking is fantastic and he maps out great for this course, his putting has been pretty terrible so he’ll have to roll some in to succeed here but he has improved there, won already this year at the Valero Texas Open, solid course history never finishing worse than T33 and has T10s twice in the last three years with COURSE HISTORY finishes here, 40,44,7,MC,12,6,MC,5,14,25,MC,1,MC,24 finishes in his last 14 events, 2nd in Approach, 36th in SG: OTT, 81st in Driving Distance, 2nd in Proximity 150-200 yards, 29th in Proximity 200+ yards, 66th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 35th in SG: ARG, 95th in Putting, 3rd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 21st in Birdie+ Gained

Jackson Suber: 7500: +8400 – Playing great golf lately (beside the US Open where his game was a disaster and missing the cut at the 3M last week) and keeps popping on leaderboards, he was impressive last week as the solo first round leader at The Open at his first links course, has played better in weak field events, I was inside the ropes with him last year at the RBC Canadian Open where he was great ballstriking (he played great again there this year), finished T6 his only time here last year, MC,28,6,30,MC,4,67,4,19,MC,28,MC,MC,63,70,MC,51,MC,11,15 finishes in his last 20 events, 4th in Approach, 33rd in SG: OTT, 37th in Driving Distance, 43rd in Proximity 150-200 yards, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 17th in Par 3 Scoring, 28th in Par 4 Scoring, 44th in SG: ARG, 63rd in Putting, 51st in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5 with ties paid in full

Johnny Keefer: 7400: +10000 – His play style lines up very well for this course with great approach play and crushing it off the tee, has to make some putts since that part of his game hasn’t been great, solid value at 100:1, first time playing this course, he’s been pretty solid in his rookie year on the PGA with MC,59,3,MC,39,51,35,9,79,31,69,MC,MC,3,MC,MC,MC,41,43,27,61 finishes this season, 12th in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 20th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 22nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 70th in Par 3 Scoring, 44th in Par 4 Scoring, 117th in SG: ARG, 90th in Putting, 21st in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 39th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5 with ties paid in full

Ben Kohles: 7300: +8800 – Has been playing really well in weak fields lately and was towards the top of the leaderboard again last week with great ballstriking and T2G play before he imploded on Sunday to finish 9th, 9,15,3,23,29,MC,MC,31,42,34,61,63,20 finishes in his last 15 events, 78,20,MC finishes here, 1st in Approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 133rd in Driving Distance, 17th in Proximity 150-200 yards, 10th in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 79th in SG: ARG, 76th in Putting, 7th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 17th in Birdie+ Gained, also taking his T5 with ties paid in full

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (15%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Proximity 150-200 yards (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I hit the winner on Rickie Fowler here in 2023
• In 2024, I had both Aaron Rai and Akshay Bhatia (who three putt the 72nd hole to lose), who both finished T2

Bets

Outrights

.5u Wyndham Clark (+2200)

.5u Jackson Koivun (+2350)

.5u Si Woo Kim (+2400)

.4u J.J. Spaun (+3100)

.2u Jackson Suber (+8400)

.2u Ben Kohles (+8800)

.1u Johnny Keefer (+10000)

T5s

.2u Ben Kohles (+1200)

.2u Jackson Suber (+1400)

.2u Johnny Keefer (+1400)

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