The FedEx Cup Playoffs begin this week as the PGA Tour heads back to TPC Southwind with the Top 70 in the standings for the FedEx St. Jude Championship.

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Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7288 yards, plays significantly longer with the way that the course is set up, one of the top 15 hardest courses on tour every year, seven of the Par 4s are over 450 yards, both Par 5s are reachable, most balls in the water (in play on eleven holes) of any course on tour by a substantial amount (almost 1400 more than the next which is TPC Sawgrass), back nine is very difficult with holes 17 and 18 here see over 200 bogies or worse through the week, driving accuracy is way lower than tour average (56% vs. 62%), lower GIR % than tour average (59% vs. 66%), 75 bunkers, narrow and very difficult to hit Zoysia grass fairways, trees, bunkers and water in play if you miss the fairway, Bermuda rough which is hard to judge distance out of but it isn’t too thick or tall, both GIR and proximity sharply decline from the rough, some of the smallest Bermuda greens on tour surrounded by bunkers and water, top five easiest putting greens on Tour, third highest one putt percentage on tour, fourth lowest three putt percentage on tour, fast (12 on the stimpmeter), firm and undulating greens

Tournament Notes

• First of the 3 events of the FedEx Cup Playoffs
• No cut event
• This event used to be the Top 125 players in the FedEx Cup playoffs qualifying. Three years ago that changed to the Top 70
• The Top 50 in the FedEx Cup standings after this week will advance to the BMW Championship at Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis
• This course and event used to be a WGC no cut event from 2019-2021 with the best players in the world and prior to that was the St. Jude Classic, a much weaker field event during the regular season
• Prior when this course hosted this event as a WGC, a lot of the top end players historically didn’t play this course much so course history may not be as helpful as in other events due to the difference in field strength and format throughout the years
• SG: Approach is historically 2.5x times more important than SG: OTT here
• The player that ended the week 1st in SG: T2G here won the event 8 of the last 14 years (Ancer in 2021 was fourth, Glover in 2023 was fourth and Cantlay, who lost in a playoff, was first. Last year, Justin Rose was 3rd in T2G.)
• The opening event of the FedEx Cup Playoffs has been won by a player in the T25 OWGR 15 of 20 times.
• 6 of the last 11 winners of the opening playoff event had a victory already in the calendar year that they won (Zalatoris in 2022 didn’t have a win but had three 2nd place finishes. Glover in 2023 won back to back after winning the Wyndham the prior week. Last year, Justin Rose did not but came in second at The Masters.)
• 6 of the last 11 winners of the opening playoff event entered the week in the T10 of the FedEx Cup standings (Zalatoris in 2022 was 12th going into the playoffs and Hideki last year was 12th)
• 11 of the last 15 winners of the opening playoff event finished T22 in their previous start before winning and were in good form coming into this tournament

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, GIR Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (25.5%)

Field

69 golfers – Very strong field of the Top 70 golfers in the FedEx Cup standings (Daniel Berger is the only qualified player not in the field)

Last Year Champion: Justin Rose (-16 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: JJ Spaun (-16)

One and Done: Patrick Cantlay

One and Done Considerations: Take the best player that you have left.

Players

Sam Burns: 9500: +3000 – My favorite pick for this week, plays hard courses with strong fields very well, he’s played this course each of the past five years and never once lost strokes on approach with 28,5,52,20,2,MC (in 2015) finishes here, he’s gained on approach and T2G in his past five straight starts, with three T5 finishes and no result worse than T20, coming off a 3rd place finish at The Open Championship with 3,12,2,20,4,26,37,38,16,7,21,13,MC,MC,6,MC,27,13,7,4,28 finishes in his last 21 events, 13th in Approach, 30th in SG: OTT, 47th in Driving Accuracy, 50th in Good Drives Gained, 12th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 36th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 19th in GIRs Gained, 34th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 13th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 11th in Birdie+ Gained, 11th in Bogie Avoidance

Si Woo Kim: 8700: +3300 – Playing well lately in tougher events, 14,50,16,42,65,MC (in 2016) finishes here, 42,6,9,11,84,42,31,28,8,17,15,8,MC,MC,38,19,24,21,12 finishes in his last 19 events, 10th in Approach, 28th in SG: OTT, 9th in Driving Accuracy, 20th in Good Drives Gained, 25th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 2nd in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 19th in GIRs Gained, 7th in SG: ARG, 40th in Putting, 9th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 33rd in Bogie Avoidance

Russell Henley: 8600: +4000 – Has been very good on approach and ballstriking recently and maps out great for this course with the best driving accuracy in the field, already won this season a few weeks ago cashing in my outright at the Charles Schwab with 20,9,12,65,22,1,MC,49,25,3,MC,13,6,MC,19,8,19,19,15,17,10,2,10,5 finishes in his last 24 events, 17,30,6,MC,MC,7 finishes here, 27th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 1st in Driving Accuracy, 2nd in Good Drives Gained, 40th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 7th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 30th in GIRs Gained, 59th in SG: ARG, 9th in Putting, 14th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 42nd in Birdie+ Gained, 21st in Bogie Avoidance

Jackson Koivun: 8200: +4000 – This kid’s going to be a great player after being the top ranked amateur golfer ever, got his debut win three weeks at the 3M Open in just his third PGA Tour event since becoming a pro, first time playing this event, 29,31,1,10,MC,23,4,5,6,11,MC,48,56,MC,52 finishes in PGA Tour events both as a pro and an amateur,, 7th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 4th in Driving Accuracy, 6th in Good Drives Gained, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 19th in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 2nd in GIRs Gained, 20th in SG: ARG, 12th in Putting, 16th in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance

Tom Kim: 7900: +5100 – Won this season already at the Genesis Scottish Open and has been at the top of the leaderboard a ton lately, 50,24,13 finishes here, 5,20,MC,1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 21 events, prior to his missed cut at The Open he had gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his prior seven events, best player in the field on approach, spectacular driving accuracy, five Top 20s in his past seven starts (with a win and three T5s in that span), very good in Par 4s ranging from 450-500 yards, Bermuda is his best putting surface, 1st in Approach, 54th in SG: OTT, 11th in Driving Accuracy, 4th in Good Drives Gained, 21st in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 3rd in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 9th in GIRs Gained, 19th in SG: ARG, 41st in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 12th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance

J.J. Spaun: 7800: +5900 – His ballstriking is fantastic and he maps out great for this course, his putting has been pretty terrible so he’ll have to roll some in to succeed here but he has improved there, won already this year at the Valero Texas Open, runner up here last year where he lost in the playoff to Justin Rosewith 2,24,42 finishes here, 50,40,44,7,MC,12,6,MC,5,14,25,MC,1,MC,24 finishes in his last 15 events, 8th in Approach, 32nd in SG: OTT, 15th in Driving Accuracy, 7th in Good Drives Gained, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards, 1st in Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards, 10th in GIRs Gained, 16th in SG: ARG, 62nd in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet, 21st in Birdie+ Gained, 24th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Driving Accuracy (5%)

Good Drives Gained (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 451-500 yards (15%)

Scoring Opportunities inside 15 feet from Proximity 151-175 yards (10%)

GIRs Gained (5%)

SG: ARG (5%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities Gained inside 10 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (10%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

Betting/DraftKings Notes

• Last year I had a huge bet on Scheffler here trying to hit a double outright and he finished T3, a stroke outside of the playoff
• In showdown slates, there’s an advantage to golfers that start on 1 this week since 17 and 18 are the two toughest holes on the course
• Different books are offering without Scottie or without Scottie & Rory markets. I’m just playing the ones with Rory excluded based on price, I don’t really see him winning this week. I can see Scottie winning.

Bets

Outrights

.5u Sam Burns (+3000)

Outrights (without Scheffler & McIlroy)

.5u Sam Burns (+1760)

.4u Jackson Koivun (+3250)

Outrights (without Scheffler)

.5u Si Woo Kim (+2800)

.4u Russell Henley (+3300)

.3u Tom Kim (+4300)

.2u J.J. Spaun (+5000)

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