This week the Top 50 in the FedEx Cup Standings goes to Bellerive Country Club in St. Louis for this year’s BMW Championship to make the Top 30 and head to next week’s PGA Tour season finale at East Lake.

Great win for me last week on Si Woo Kim (and almost doubled it on Sam Burns) in the winner without Scheffler market. Let’s hit another one!

https://www.instagram.com/reels/DcMgYzqJzpo

Course Breakdown

Par 70, 7448 yards, both Par 5s are lengthy but are reachable as long as you’re in the fairway, eight holes are dogleg lefts which favors a right to left ball flight (draw), fairways are kind of wide around 35 yards, a lot of the fairways narrow out around 300 yards putting accuracy more in play for the longer drivers, springy Zoysia grass fairways that could have bounce and roll with a lot of sloping, about five feet of intermediate rough but outside that there is thick three inch fescue rough that could be tough to get out of, very low GIR percentage (45% in 2018) from the rough but pretty high from the fairways (79% in 2018), 76 bunkers with a lot of them being pretty large, water in play on eight holes but don’t come into play as much unless irons are off, kind of slow (especially for a major venue) large bentgrass greens (which were entirely redone in 2019 after the 2018 PGA Championship) which are very wide but thin front to back with a ton of undulation and slope making landing areas by the pin small

Tournament Notes

• Second leg of the FedEx Cup Playoffs with the Top 30 in the FedEx Cup Standings advancing to East Lake next week for the Tour Championship
• This event has been played at a variety of courses over the years
• No cut event
• This course previously hosted the 2018 PGA Championship when Brooks Koepka won at -16 (beating Tiger Woods by two strokes), along with several other previous majors. This course also hosted the 2008 BMW Championship.
• Form matters in the FedEx Cup Playoffs
• The last week of the One & Done season
• In 50,000 simulations, 100% of golfers currently ranked 1-20 advanced to East Lake and 99.95% ranked 21-23 advanced, really only leaving seven spots up for grabs to move on to the Tour Championship next week (as per simulations from datagolf)

Key Stats

Approach, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring

Corollary Courses

Bethpage Black, Firestone CC

Field

50 golfers – the top 50 in FedEx Cup Standings

Defending Champion (Caves Valley): Scottie Scheffler (-15)

Runner Up Last Year (Caves Valley): Robert MacIntyre (-13)

One and Done: Jake Knapp

One and Done Considerations: Whoever’s left. I have to hit the winner this week to even have a chance to get into the money for the season (probably not happening considering who I have left)

Players

Sam Burns: 10400: +1800 – He was my favorite pick last week and went into Sunday looking great before Scottie stormed him and the rest of the field, had the chance to give me a double win on the winner without Scheffler market but bogied the 72nd hole to finish T3, plays hard courses with strong fields very well, he’s gained on approach and T2G in his past six straight starts with four T5 finishes and no result worse than T20, 3,3,12,2,20,4,26,37,38,16,7,21,13,MC,MC,6,MC,27,13,7,4,28 finishes in his last 22 events, first time playing this course, 6th in Approach, 29th in SG: OTT, 34th in Driving Accuracy, 17th in Driving Distance, 11th in Par 3 Scoring, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, 14th in Sand Saves, 26th in SG: ARG, 3rd in Putting, 22nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 7th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance, boosted him to get better odds in the without Scottie market than his regular outright

Si Woo Kim: 9100: +2700 – Cashed me a win in the winner without Scheffler market last week with his solo 2nd finish at the FedEx St. Jude, playing well lately in tougher events, 2,42,6,9,11,84,42,31,28,8,17,15,8,MC,MC,38,19,24,21,12 finishes in his last 20 events, first time playing this course, 7th in Approach, 13th in SG: OTT, 5th in Driving Accuracy, 36th in Driving Distance, 7th in Par 3 Scoring, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 24th in Sand Saves, 12th in SG: ARG, 22nd in Putting, 10th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance

Hideki Matsuyama: 9000: +2700 – Playing very well as of late with T7 finishes in his last four events and T14 finishes in his last five events, figured out his driving accuracy, 7,7,5,3,14,14,65,43,13,26,71,53,12,21,27,41,28,8,2,11,13,20 finishes in his 22 events this season, has won on Zoysia fairways at the ZOZO Championship, bentgrass is his best putting surface, finished T35 here at the 2018 PGA Championship, 15th in Approach, 20th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Accuracy, 42nd in Driving Distance, 32nd in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 19th in Sand Saves, 5th in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in Bogie Avoidance

Wyndham Clark: 8700: +3000 – Bounced back from two straight missed cuts with a T5 last week at the FedEx St. Jude where he gained strokes in every facet of his game, two time major winner now after his second win at the US Open this season, crushing it tee to green and has been playing great this year, has two wins this year in his last nine events with the US Open and The CJ Cup Byron Nelson, this course maps out well statistically for him, 5,MC,MC,13,5,1,11,3,1,MC,16,21,MC,MC,42,41,58,35,65,13 finishes in his last 19 events, first time playing this course, 20th in Approach, 37th in SG: OTT, 48th in Driving Accuracy, 12th in Driving Distance, 1st in Par 3 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 33rd in Sand Saves, 4th in SG: ARG, 1st in Putting, 24th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 1st in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance

Tom Kim: 8100: +4100 – Won this season already at the Genesis Scottish Open and has been at the top of the leaderboard a ton lately, first time playing this course, prior to his missed cut at The Open he had gained strokes on approach and ballstriking in his prior seven events, best player in the field on approach, spectacular driving accuracy, five Top 20s in his past seven starts (with a win and three T5s in that span), 12,5,20,MC,1,46,3,15,54,54,6,MC,56,18,59,34,35,65,38,61,56,11 finishes in his last 22 events, first time playing this course, 2nd in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 10th in Driving Accuracy, 45th in Driving Distance, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 16th in Sand Saves, 17th in SG: ARG, 17th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance, found better odds for him in the without Scottie market than his outright

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving Accuracy (5%)

Driving Distance (5%)

Par 3 Scoring (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Sand Saves (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (10%)

Birdie+ Gained (5%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• I hit Brooks Koepka as the winner here in 2018 at the PGA Championship
• I think Scottie likely wins back to back here, but I can’t bet him at +300, so I’ll stick with the winner without Scheffler markets this week.

Bets

Outrights (without Scheffler)

.5u Sam Burns (+2100)

.5u Si Woo Kim (+2150)

.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+2150)

.5u Wyndham Clark (+2350)

.3u Tom Kim (+4400)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!

… and tell Dave Portnoy to hire me at Barstool…