Just a few more weeks left of the PGA Tour swing season and after last week’s early finish, this week they head to Vidanta Vallarta for the VidantaWorld Mexico Open. Let’s win!
https://www.instagram.com/reels/DfFS2rkJ6nA
Course Breakdown
Par 71 (normally plays as a Par 73), 7337 yards, Greg Norman design, four Par 5s, five Par 3s and a drivable Par 4, resort course so it plays easily, large and wide open fairways without much trouble surrounding them which could give bombers an advantage, much farther driving distance here compared to tour average (~298 vs. 283), slow and above average sized paspalum greens (which is on most Caribbean resort courses) with water and sand surrounding the greens, water in play on 13 holes, 55 bunkers on the course, near water so it could be effected by the wind but even with heavy winds in 2022 this was a birdiefest, this year the routing of the course has changed using two new holes that were on another course on property before and rerouting the rest of the course and is a bit shorter
Tournament Notes
- This is just the fifth year of this course hosting this event
- This tournament was previously held early in the regular season and has now been moved to the fall swing season.
- This course used to host a Korn Ferry Tour event
- In 2024, Justin Lower was the only player in the T10 to not gain strokes in driving distance. In 2023, 10 of the top 11 finishers gained in driving distance.
Key Stats
Approach, Driving Distance, Opportunities Gained
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards (40.6%, only a few years of data)
Corollary Courses
- Coco Beach Country Club (Puerto Rico Open)
- Corales Golf Club (Corales Puntacana Championship)
Field
132 golfers – Pretty weak field as expected
Defending Champion: Brian Campbell (-20 in a playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Aldrich Potgieter (-20)
Players
Ben James: 10200: +2000 – Besides his MC last week in Bermuda he’s playing fantastic his last few events with three straight T5s finishes and was solo second at the Biltmore Championship, first time playing this event, MC,5,2,3,38,MC,4,15,62,23,54 finishes his last eleven events, 13th in Approach, 10th in SG: OTT, 60th in Driving Distance, 14th in Proximity 200+ yards, 31st in SG: ARG, 19th in Putting, 27th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance
Johnny Keefer: 9500: +2700 – His play style lines up very well for this course with great approach play and crushing it off the tee, first time playing this event, he’s been pretty solid in his rookie year on the PGA with 33,10,7,MC,60,MC,59,3,MC,39,51,35,9,79,31,69,MC,MC,3,MC,MC,MC,41,43,27,61 finishes, 14th in Approach, 22nd in SG: OTT, 3rd in Driving Distance, 16th in Proximity 200+ yards, 52nd in SG: ARG, 33rd in Putting, 39th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 26th in Birdie+ Gained, 48th in Bogie Avoidance
Doug Ghim: 9400: +2500 – First in my model this week, very good tee to green and improved late in the season, elite off the tee, runner up a few weeks ago at the Bank of Utah, 17,2,17,19,15,MC,MC,6,15,28,31,19,30,MC,40,26,MC,59,MC,55,6,13,31 finishes in his last 23 events, 8,MC,33 finishes here, 16th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 20th in Driving Distance, 5th in Proximity 200+ yards, 19th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 2nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance
Blades Brown: 9000: +3300 – Coming off a solo 2nd in the Korn Ferry Tour Championship, 17,MC,11,12,14,9,40,3,MC,18,MC,34,MC,37,MC,MC,34,MC,26 finishes in his 19 events on the PGA Tour, finished T34 here last year, 10th in Approach, 42nd in SG: OTT, 81st in Driving Distance, 46th in Proximity 200+ yards, 57th in SG: ARG, 38th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 1st in Bogie Avoidance
Kristoff Ventura: 7900: +5000 – Pops in my model and his OTT and ballstriking numbers are great, finished T25 here last year, 34,41,32,MC,54,5,51,15,5 finishes in his last nine events, 28th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 29th in Driving Distance, 3rd in Proximity 200+ yards, 63rd in SG: ARG, 74th in Putting, 28th in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 33rd in Birdie+ Gained, 5th in Bogie Avoidance
Kevin Roy: 7500: +5500 – I like how he lines up this week with great play OTT and on approach, he’s been solid here with T17 and T18 finishes, 64,13,32,24,19,26,31,62,11 finishes in his last nine events, 19th in Approach, 9th in SG: OTT, 58th in Driving Distance, 25th in Proximity 200+ yards, 38th in SG: ARG, 52nd in Putting, 82nd in Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet, 9th in Birdie+ Gained, 8th in Bogie Avoidance
Model
Approach (30%)
SG: OTT (15%)
Driving Distance (10%)
Proximity 200+ yards (10%)
SG: ARG (5%)
Putting (10%)
Opportunities Gained inside 15 feet (5%)
Birdie+ Gained (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (5%)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
Bets
Outrights
.5u Ben James (+2000)
.5u Doug Ghim (+2500)
.5u Johnny Keefer (+2700)
.4u Blades Brown (+3300)
.2u Kristoff Ventura (+5000)
.2u Kevin Roy (+5500)
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