The Masters – Gambling Preview 2019

Note: Every week I put together a several page write up of my gambling (Draftkings and betting) preview of the week on the PGA Tour. My process includes reading my write up from the previous year and comparing it to the actual results of the tournament, doing some online research including course history and recent form, listening to a handful of really good podcasts (where I get some great info from) and compiling that info into my weekly write up. Some info that makes it into my write up I get directly word for word from these pods (including Fantasy Golf Degenerates and The Pat Mayo Experience) so credit where it’s due. I started this as just a research tool for myself and slowly some people started asking for it every week. This is my first time publishing this to the public. Hopefully this helps make some people some money and enjoy the golf!

The Masters

Augusta National Golf Club – Augusta, GA

“A tradition unlike any other”

Course Breakdown

Par 72, 7435 yds (plays a bit longer), avg. 65 sq. ft. firm and FAST multi-tiered bent grass greens with a ton of undulation, lush fairways with a lot of undulation which leads to the course playing longer than it is, 41 bunkers, 6 water hazards, rye grass, almost no rough, pine straw that you could hit out of as long as you don’t have a tree in the way, 13/14 par 4’s: you’re hitting driver, lots of changes in elevation on the course, experience here matters, first timers don’t win here, bombers have an advantage, right to left draw ball flight works best here (comes naturally for leftys, Spieth draws the ball well also). Easy to hit fairways (~69%), hard to hit greens vs. tour average (~61%). Augusta has aerated greens and some fairways with a ton of drainage on the course. Rain doesn’t effect it and isn’t much of a factor here like it usually is on other courses on tour. 

Tournament Notes

  • Course history affects play at Augusta more than any other course on tour
  • The last 7 winners gained minimum of 13.4 strokes T2G in their two prior events leading up to their victory at Augusta – this year that includes: Rory (22.2), Fleets (21.1), Hideki (18.8) and DJ (16.3)
  • 6 of the last 7 winners were inside the Top 7 in SG: T2G leading up to the Masters
  • No winner has repeated since Tiger in 2002 (along with Nick Faldo and Jack)
  • Jack was oldest player to ever win the Masters, at 46 years old
  • Last 19 Masters winners have made the cut the previous year (since Tiger in 1997)
  • The last time a first timer won the Masters was in 1979 (Fuzzy Zoeller)

Key Stats

SG: T2G, Ballstriking, SG: Approach

Main proximity distance range: 150-200 yds (but a lot of elevation changes here make that not as accurate as other courses)

Corollary Courses

  • Emirates Golf Club (Omega Dubai Desert Challenge) – Danny Willett and Sergio won this and the Masters in the same year
  • Riviera CC (Genesis Open)
  • Quail Hallow Club (Wells Fargo Championship)
  • Correlated courses are not as much of a factor that I’ll be looking at with so much course history at Augusta

Field

86 players 

Smallest field for a major and you could cut out a good 20-30 players (Sr. past champs etc.) that just aren’t gonna win – It doesn’t matter that Bernhard Langer is the #1 Sr. in the world…he’s not winning the fucking Masters

Cut: Top 50 and ties as well as any players within 10 strokes of the lead

Defending Champion: Patrick Reed (-15)

Runner Up Last Year: Rickie Fowler (-14)

One and Done: Bryson DeChambeau

Alternate: Jordan Spieth

One and Done Considerations: Rory, DJ, Rahm, Bryson, Jordan

My winning pick: Rory McIlroy

My Top 5: Rory McIlroy, DJ, Rose, Rahm, Bryson

Golfers

Rory: 11600: +660 – “Hear the Rors”, he only needs a green jacket for his career Grand Slam (4 of the last 5 years this has been the case), his number is unbettable (unless it’s parlayed), won the Players this year and has not finished worse than 6th in any event in 2019, in fantastic form especially T2G and ballstriking, his last 2 events he gained 22.2 SG T2G, was in contention last year (for the first time, all his other T10s were backdoors) going into Sunday and choked it away with a +2 to finish T5 (-9), finished 2nd at Dubai last year behind Haotong (didn’t play this year), 5 T10s in a row at Augusta, last 6 years: 5,7,10,4,8,5 will be pretty chalky this week, my pick to win the Masters this year

DJ: 11300: +975 – World #1, Will be a lower owned pivot off of Rory right above him, his results here have quietly been very solid here with 3 straight T10s here (6, 4, fell down the stairs, 10th) the last 4 years, every facet of his game is good enough to win anywhere, won this year at WGC Mexico (beat Rory) and also has 4 T10s in a row, has  16.3 SG: T2G in his last 2 events, makes a ton of birdies, long off the tee, if the weather gets shitty I’d lean Deej over Rory

Rahm: 10000: +1545 – Same skill set as Deej, crushes it OTT, in the 47 starts of his career has only lost strokes OTT once and 4 times T2G (which is insane), good all around with him gaining strokes on average in every facet of his game, his temper could be concerning here, the public is gonna play Tiger and Rickie around him so this is a good pivot here

Bryson: 9300: +3500 – Won Dubai this year while he was on fire at the beginning of the season, in his own head a bit, high amateur here in 2016 with 21st place finish, has said that loves he Augusta and he thinks that the course fits his eye perfectly

Fleets: 9200: +2800 – Long off the tee (T15 in driving distance in last 50 rounds), great T2G, gaining 21.1 T2G in his last 2 events, gains strokes on T2G in 82% of his events played, hits a ton of greens, plays better in the wind if it picks up, my favorite DK play in the 9k range

Casey: 9000: +2800 – Consistent grinder, has a win this year, 2nd in SG: Par 5s in the last 50 rounds, T15 here last year and 3 straight T10s here before that, will be very high owned, shockingly this clown actually has gained strokes putting in his career here although he’s a terrible putter (just goes to show how unsustainable putting is as a stat to put any stock into)

Jordan: 8900: +2035 – No matter how shitty his form has been going into Augusta, he always pops at the top of the leaderboard, last year he had the biggest putting yips ever and still almost stormed in and won, the issue this year is that every part of his game especially the T2G has been the worst of his career, T30 last week at Valero Texas Open where on Thursday and Friday it seemed like he was in a bit of a groove, his last T10 was here last year, Masters champ (2015), last 5 years here: 3,11,2,1,2 

Hideki: 8700: +3300 – His iron game has been phenomenal and has been fantastic T2G (18.8 SG in his last 2 events) and ballstriking but has sucked at putting for the most part, 2nd in Approach, 2nd in SG: T2G, good recent form coming in, 10/10 cuts made this year, last 4 years here: 19,11,7,5, my favorite DK play in the 8k range

Kuch: 7900: +4500 – This is the best year of this asshole’s career and he’s coming off a 2nd at Match Play two weeks ago, since the DK prices came out early he’s lower priced than he should be, solid course history with 4 T8s or better in his last 7 times here, 7 T25s here, 11/12 cuts made here over his career, hits a ton of greens, good iron player, high floor and high ceiling, Georgia guy, my favorite DK play in the 7k range

Cantlay: 7700: +7500 – Good pivot off Serg at the same price on DK, the “experts” are on Cantlay but no way the general public plays him over the former Masters champ, T15 in 6 of his last 8 events, 10th in SG: T2G this year, long off the tee, T10 in driving distance and gained strokes on approach in 7 of his last 8 events, consecutive T15s at Riviera, MC last year but made the cut here previously as an amateur in 2012

Stenny: 7600: +7500 – Has been solid lately T2G and is turning around a bad start of the year, 12.1 SG: T2G over his last 2 events

Haotong: 7200: +17500 – Hits it long, scores on Par 5s, won Dubai last year over Rory, not a bad longshot DK flyer

Hoff: 6800: +8000 – Played well the last 2 weeks with a 2nd place finish at Valero Texas Open last week, first round leader here 2 years ago shooting a 65 on Thursday, I like this pick for a FRL again this year (+3300)

DraftKings Notes

  • A lot of the dumb ass general public that normally doesn’t play DFS golf will be playing this week, which will inflate ownership % for bigger names but also give an advantage over the field.
  • May want to leave salary cap on the table
  • Need to get 6/6 in the cut at a minimum to cash, need to hit 6 T10s to win big and the winner
  • Making cuts here should not be a factor in lineup construction and will almost play closer to a no cut event on DK
  • Need scoring pts as well as placing pts.