RBC Heritage – Gambling Preview 2019

Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head, SC

Course Breakdown
Par 71, Pete Dye designed course, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), 4 par 3s, 3 par 5s (2 are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~65%), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour last season, driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, very tough greens to hit (~57%), smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, it could get very windy and the swirling wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes
Course history seems to be more important than current form here
Don’t really look at the Masters results for this week, as it tends not to matter much here
In the last 10 years, every winner here except for Kodaira (last year) had at least one T7 during the season before that (all T5 besides the 7th for Furyk in 2015)
6 of the last 10 years, the winner had 2 T5s leading up to their win here
The last 6 winners have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes
Only 2 54 hole leaders have won in the last 10 years
5 of the past 7 winners here have either not played or MC’d at the Masters the week before
• Last year, 11 of the T15 in SG Approach came T16. So SG Approach is very important here

Key Stats
SG Approach, SG Around the Green, Scrambling, GIR

Main proximity distance ranges: 150-200 yds

Corollary Courses
Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)

Field
Field is much better than it usually is for this tournament, with big names like DJ, Molinari, Xander, Bryson and Kuch playing this year

Defending Champion: Satoshi Kodaira (-12, win over Si Woo in playoff)
Runner Up Last Year: Si Woo Kim (-12)

One and Done: Matt Kuchar
Alternate: Jim Furyk

One and Done Considerations: Kuch, Cantlay, Furyk

Players
Kuch: 10000: +2200 – Plays great here. Former winner. Last 5 years here: win, 2 T25s, T5 and T10, 14/15 made cuts at this event. T12 at the Masters last week, 3rd in SG Approach and SG T2G over last 24 rounds, 1st in GIR gained in the last 12 rounds, good from 150-200yds, 1st in SG Total at this event over the last 5 years (46.24), projected to be high owned (~25%)
Cantlay: 9700: +1800 – Played great at the Masters last week, good at Par 4s gained, good from 150-200 yds, has a good history here (T3 and T7 here in 2 starts), 9th in Ballstriking and SG Approach over last 24 rounds
Furyk: 9400: +3300 – Approach game is dialed in, has a good track record here including 2 wins and 15/19 cuts made, great form recently
Poults: 8600: +2800 – Good form recently including last week at Augusta, good track record here, 1st in putting from 10-15 ft (which is a main tricky distance here), great around the green
Sungjai Im: 8400: +4000 – T10 in 3 of his last 5 events, great T2G and especially on approach
Benny An: 8200: +4000 – 1st in SG T2G, 1st in SG Around the Green, 5th in Ballstriking, 15th in SG Approach over last 24 rounds, he needs to roll in some putts, hits a ton of GIR, T7 here last year, good form with T10 in 2 of his last 3 events, projected to be high owned (~27%), let’s see if he can make a putt
Moore: 8100: +4500 – 7th in SG Approach, hits a ton of greens, great around the green lately, good from 150-200 yds, T16 here last year
Knox: 7700: +5500 – Hasn’t MCd in 2019, his putting also sucks, 6th in SG Approach, 11th in SG T2G, 36th in SG Around the Green over last 24 rounds, good history here with a 2nd, T9, T11 and no MCs in the last 5 years
Luke Donald: 7200: +5500 – Mr. 2nd place here (5 2nd place finishes here in the last 10 years), no matter how bad he sucks every year he’s still managed to somehow get 7 T3s here in the last 10 years, T9 at Valspar this year where he gained 5.4 strokes T2G so his irons were dialed that week

DraftKings/Betting Notes
My biggest gambling win ever came here 2 years ago when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on Draftkings on Easter Sunday
Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities
I LOVE the 9k range on DK this week. Every player is solid there