US Open – Gambling Preview 2019

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Course Breakdown
Par 71, 7075 yds, for the US Open the 2nd hole that usually plays as a Par 5 is a long Par 4 and they added distance to a good amount of holes, only one of the Par 5s is reachable in 2 by all (6th), and one will be reachable by the longer issues only (18th), course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, fairways are very narrow for US Open setup and the rough is thick and penal so guy’s can’t miss the fairway and have an easy way out of the rough like at the AT&T, whole course playing firm and fast, bunkers guarding the landing zones with the rough grown up around them, OB comes into play on almost half the holes and for the US Open there are a ton of runoffs that make balls that in AT&T would still be in play will drop into the ocean, very small POA greens (half size of tour average), smallest greens on tour with false fronts and greenside bunkers, guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes

Tournament Notes
• Pebble Beach hosts the AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am (along with 2 other courses on the resort) every year under much easier conditions and the tournament will play very different with the course set up differently
• Pebble Beach last hosted the US Open in 2010 (Gmac over DJ by one stroke after DJ choked on Sunday) and 2000 (Tiger’s most dominant win ever by 15, -12)
• 4 of the past 5 US Open champions at Pebble Beach had previously won the Pro-Am here, with Gmac being the one exception to that in 2010 (although he had an 8th place finish at the Pro-Am prior to that)
• GIR was very low here both in 2010 (~53%) and 2000 (~48%), only 6 players in 2010 and 3 in 2000 hit more than 60% GIR, Around the Green game is going to be a huge factor (scrambling).
• Rounds will be significantly shorter than during the Pro-Am since players won’t be in foursomes with two shitty amateurs taking 7 hours, which is a big factor

Key Stats
SG: Approach, Scrambling, GIR, SG: T2G (with more weight on Fairways Gained)

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yds.

Field
156 man field including the full World Golf Rankings Top 60 players

Top 60 and ties make the cut

Defending Champion (Shinnecock Hills): Brooks Koepka
Runner Up Last Year: Tommy Fleetwood

Defending Champion (AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am): Phil Mickelson

One and Done: Jason Day
Alternate: Brandt Snedeker

One and Done Considerations: Tiger, DJ, JT, Day

Players
Tiger: 10700: +1110 – The greatest of all time, had his most dominant win ever here in 2000 (won by 15 strokes at -12), every facet of his game (especially his irons) have been dialed in, gained over 5 strokes on approach at the Memorial a couple weeks ago, hits a lot of greens
JT: 9300: +2500 – 2nd in the field last week T2G (only behind Rory) but was real lousy at putting (-3.5 SG putting), gained 9.5 strokes ballstriking last week at RBC, only played here once and MC’d, best Par 4 player on the tour, drives accurately especially when he clubs down, best Approach player in the field, fantastic around the green, plays Par 3s great, POA is his best putting surface, has a lot of upside and I love his betting odds and his DK price
J Day: 9100: +3500 – Has a very good history for the Pro-Am here coming in 2nd and 4th the last 2 years and not being outside T11 in the last 5 years, great scrambling, one of the best putters on tour, plays hard courses very well, gained strokes on approach this year here for the Pro-Am, the Players and PGA Championship, decent off the tee and better on his accuracy on shorter drives (55% to 65%), his bad iron play concerns me, he’s usually not part of my brand since putting is so key for him to succeed and that isn’t a stat I usually consider but could be worth it this week
Hideki: 8800: +3500 – has gradually been improving each tournament he plays, 2nd in SG: Approach and T15 in SG Around the Green over last 50 rounds, good in proximity from 150-175 yds, good scrambling this year although he’s had issues in the past with that, good at bogie avoidance, has gained strokes both on approach and around the green in his last 10 events
Xander: 8700: +2800 – 5th and 6th place finishes at his 2 US Opens, MC’d at the Pro-Am the one time he played it but the day that he played Pebble Beach he led the field in SG: Total, from the California area, not great around the green, the stats don’t really fit here but he plays the best in tough fields in big events at hard courses
Casey: 8300: +5500 – Good T2G and probably the best in the field at hitting it both long and accurately off the tee (7th in Fairways Gained/34th in Driving Distance), very good with his irons, great history at Pebble with 2nd and 8th place finishes at the Pro-Am the last 2 years, last round he played was his WD with the flu at Colonial which is a bit concerning, has burned a lot of people this year in the events he was chalk (Players, Masters)
Phil: 8200: +4000 – Won the Pro-Am here this year but sprayed it all over the place off the tee which won’t work this time around, 4th here at the US Open in 2010, 2nd last year, hasn’t missed a cut here in the last ten years (T10 7 of those times with 2 wins, 2nd twice), could be his last chance at the Grand Slam, driver out of his hand will help him hit it in the fairway, with his experience here he has a chance and I would be ecstatic to see him win, actually looks to be low owned, it’s his 49th birthday on Sunday
Webb: 7700: +4500 – Coming off a very good week last week, plays better on less than driver courses, really good ballstriking and approach game, one of the best putters on tour, the price is fantastic
Stenny: 7600: +7000 – His ballstriking and iron play has been consistently one of the best on tour this year and he’s gaining a TON of strokes on approach every tournament, but his around the green and putting have been lacking this year, should be able to hit fairways with the 3 wood, hasn’t missed a cut since the players but also hasn’t had any good finishes other than the T8 last week in Canada, cheap enough that he should be able to grind out a made cut here
Sneds: 7500: +5000 – Will be the highest owned player on the slate, great history at Pebble Beach with 2 wins at the Pro-Am, T4 last week in Canada, one of the best around the green players on tour, has competed in US Opens in the past, I’ll eat the chalk with him
Furyk: 7200: +13500 – Course sets up great for the old guy that’s having a great season, accurate off the tee and lack of distance here won’t hurt him like usual, good with his irons, good with his wedges

DraftKings/Betting Notes
• This tournament has the highest percentage of the field that MC, which makes Draftkings very difficult
• 2 years ago, less than 10% of lineups in both GPPs and Cash had 5/6 or better and only 30% had 4/6 or better, 3/6 was even able to cash some lineups
• I love the pricing on Draftkings this week