Open Championship – Gambling Preview 2019

Royal Portrush Golf Club (Dunluce Course) – Northern Ireland

Course Breakdown

Par 71 (normally it plays as a Par 72), 7344 yd, links course, highly effected by the wind, one of the Par 5s is reachable in 2 by most of the field, average sized fairways, lot of guys might use less than driver off the tee to avoid the rough, more lush than most other open courses without as much roll on tee shots in the fairway, rough could be very thick especially with the rain this week, OB in play (stakes visable), fewest amount of bunkers in British Open history but those 60ish bunkers are strategically placed around the landing zones and around the greens, some bunkers are very large and extremely deep, tons of mounds and undulation on the fairways, risk/reward holes on many holes on the course which could cause some drama, greens will be firm and fast (although that is highly effected by the weather), wide array on green sizes (mostly shorter the hole, smaller the green), most of the greens are elevated (not a typical feature of links courses) and surrounded by run offs and bunkers, greens are more receptive to approach shots than most links courses but they are undulated, fescue greens with a bit of poa

Tournament Notes

  • Final major of the year
  • Only one event played here in recent history (Irish Open 2012) and since then 4-5 holes have been redesigned
  • Lead in form has been very valuable in finding the winners of the last few British Opens
  • 2 of the past 6 Open Championship winners won their last start prior to lifting the Claret Jug
  • 4 of the past 6 had a win in one of their last 2 starts prior to winning the British
  • 5 of the past 6 had a win in one of their last 5 starts prior to winning, the exception was when ZJ won and had 3 T10s coming in on his last 5 starts prior to winning at St. Andrews
  • Only other common trait between those 6 winners is they all had at least one T10 at the British Open in the past 5 years
  • The only 2 players that could fit both of those trends: Rory and Brooks

Key Stats

Ballstriking, SG Approach, Scrambling

Field

156 players including all the best in the world

Defending British Open Champion (Carnoustie): Francesco Molinari (-8)

Runner Up Last Year: Justin Rose, Xander Schauffele, Kevin Kisner, Rory McIlroy (-6)

One and Done: Patrick Cantlay

Alternate: Rafa Cabrera Bello

One and Done Considerations: Rory, Brooks, Stenny

Top 5: Rory, Brooks, Rahm, Stenson, DJ

Players

  • Rory: 11600: +770 – the hometown kid from Holywood, Northern Ireland, great links player, only guy with 4 T5 finishes in the last 5 years at the British, best aggregate score to par in the last 5 years at the British, best scoring average in British Open over the last 5 years, 2nd in Birdie+ % in British Opens over last 5 years, holds the course record here from some tournament in 2005, runner up at the British last year, he wants to win this more than winning the Masters which makes me worried that the pressure might get to him, he will be chalky this week
  • Brooks: 11400: +1005 – 2 T10s at the British Open in his past 4 starts, actually practices for majors and CRUSHES them, his caddy is from here and this is his home course, has experience out here from playing on the European Tour full time before getting his PGA card
  • Kuch: 8700: +2500 – Great links player, suits his game really well, played a good Scottish Open last week, best year of his career, has played good at British Opens
  • Stenny: 8400: +2000 – Euro, T4 last week at the Scottish Open, has been ELITE on ballstriking and approach all season, his putting has just sucked constantly, he’s good in the wind if it gets shitty, very accurate off the tee with his 3 wood, 3 straight T10s in his last 3 events, 10 cuts made in a row at British Opens including a win in 2016, leads field in SG: Approach over his last 24 rounds, will be chalky
  • Leish: 7700: +6000 – 3 T6s in the past 5 years at the British Open and hasn’t missed a cut, ballstriking has been good but putting has been shitty, if the wind picks up the Australians play great
  • RCB: 7500: +4500 – Euro, really good form coming in with 3 T10s in a row (all links courses), won the Scottish a few years ago and then came T4 at the British Open, 2nd at this course in 2012