Sentry Tournament of Champions – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Kapalua Resort Plantation Course – Hawaii

Course Breakdown

Par 73, 7518 yds, resort course, lot of elevation changes and uneven lies as the course was built on the side of a mountain, most of the Par 5s are reachable in 2, huge very wide fairways with very little rough (over 70% of Fairways Hit), if tee shots are ridiculously wild players will have to deal with very tall grass, huge and very slow Bermuda greens with a lot of undulation, some greens have been flattened this year to make the course a little more difficult, 90+ bunkers on the course, some of the landing areas have changed this year with added bunkers, right on the Pacific Ocean and wind will be a factor here

Tournament Notes

  • No cut event
  • Every player who has finished T5 in the Hero World Challenge since 2012 has finished T10 here the same year if they played both tournaments. This year those players are: Jon Rahm (T2), Patrick Reed (T3), Justin Thomas (T5)
  • No first time player has won since 2008 (Daniel Chopra)
  • Since 2014, only six golfers have finished T5 in their first appearance here, including Spieth, Hideki, Rahm, Rory and Brooks (so the elite)
  • The last nine winners have all been from the USA
  • Only 5 non-US golfers have finished T3 since 2011: Day, Rahm, Hideki (x2), Laird, GMac
  • Winners the previous year here have done very well the following year
  • In the last 6 years, 17 of the 24 T3 finishers have been T25 in the World Golf Rankings and 20 of those 24 were American
  • All 6 winners in the last 6 years were in the T25 of the World Golf Rankings and 5 of them had a win in either the fall swing season or in the previous season’s FedEx Cup Playoffs – Only two this year that fill that are JT and Reed

Key Stats

SG: Approach, Ballstriking, Scrambling

Main proximity distance range on approach: Less than 150 yds. (~40% of approach shots), Over 200 yds. (~40% of approach shots)

Corollary Courses

  • TPC Deere Run (John Deere Classic) – 4 of the last 10 winners also won the John Deere Classic (Spieth, ZJ, Stricker and Jonathan Byrd)
  • Riviera Country Club (Genesis Open)
  • Augusta National (The Masters)

Field

34 players who were all PGA winners last year

Defending Champion: Xander Schauffele

Runner Up Last Year: Gary Woodland

Players

JT: 11200: +525 – Won here in 2017, T5 at Hero World Challenge, won during the swing season at the CJ Cup, was tied for the most points at the President’s Cup, fantastic in both Ballstriking and SG: Approach, my favorite to win this event but not worth betting a golf winner at +525

DJ: 10100: +760 – Multiple wins here in the past, has been in Hawaii for a while preparing for this event, played well towards the end of the President’s Cup, decent value vs. what his odds would be at other tournaments, decent pivot off JT and decent savings on him on DK compared to JT and Rahm

Fatrick: 9000: +1400 – Won here before, was 3rd at the Hero World Challenge, his Off The Tee issues should be minimized by the gigantic fairways, I hate this fat fuck but he has a lot of upside here and my favorite bet of the week

Brandon Todd: 8100: +2900 – On fire with multiple wins in a row during the swing season, first timer here but cheap enough on Draftkings that he’s a decent play

Kevin Na: 7500: +6600 – Good on approach, good at scrambling, great putter that’s an alright flyer in the 7k range that could be lower owned since a lot of people (myself included) hate this little nerd

GMac: 6700: +12500 – Holds the course record here, best putter in the field, real cheap fill in on DK at 6700 to help fit higher priced guys in a lineup

Jim Herman: 6100: +30000 – Last time he played here he came T12, LOVES this course, not a bad little betting flyer on a T5 or T10 at the high odds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

Small field and no cut event so I’m not touching Draftkings since you’ll just have to get lucky and need to take some flyers for a chance to succeed since there will be a lot of inflated ownership

Bets

($35) Patrick Reed: WIN +1400

DraftKings Lineups

None

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