AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Pebble Beach Golf Links – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Spyglass Hill Golf Course – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Monterey Peninsula Country Club – Monterey Peninsula, CA

Course Breakdowns

Pebble Beach Golf Links (All Rounds): 6816 yd. Par 72,  fairways aren’t as wide and rough is a little thicker than usual already because the USGA is already starting to get it ready for the US Open, smallest greens on the PGA Tour, 2 Par 5s are reachable by all golfers, 1 will barely be reachable by any golfer, 1 reachable for long hitters, Par 4s here are a lot shorter than average with six Par 4s under 400 yds, course hugs the cost line which makes it very hard if wind picks up, above average size fairways, with bunkers guarding the landing zones, OB comes into play on almost half the holes, very small POA greens (half size of tour average), guys club down here and use less than driver on a lot of holes, annually the course with short average drive on Tour (264 yds vs. 283 yds average) and fewest amount of drives over 300 yds (8.96%)

Spyglass Hill Golf Course (Rounds 1-3): 6953 yd. Par 72, has played more difficult than Pebble 9 of the last 12 years, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers, lot of trees on this course so wind could be less of a factor but it’s a harder course, average sized fairways with just a few bunkers, slightly larger greens than Pebble but with a lot more slope and undulation

Monterey Peninsula Country Club (Rounds 1-3): 6958 yd. Par 71, 5 Par 3s, 4 Par 5s, easiest course of the 3 with above average sized fairways and the largest greens, highest hit fairways of any course on PGA Tour (~75%)

Tournament Notes

  • The first 3 rounds of this tournament are FUCKING ATROCIOUS and UNWATCHABLE due to all the celebrities playing, the 3 different courses and how slow everyone plays
  • Weather is a big factor here, in good weather these are all easy courses but in bad weather they get very difficult so lot of variability in this tournament
  • No TV cameras or ShotLink data on Spyglass and Monterey, which could lead to big live betting opportunities
  • Dial back exposure on this tournament cause its a fucking joke
  • A lot of variety in winners here with a lot of winners outside the Top 100 and not many in the Top 20, but Americans win here (not Euros, only 2 non-Americans in the last like 50 years)
  • No one has won here for the first time here since the 1950s
  • Golfers who usually play fast are at a slight disadvantage here because of all the slow amateurs
  • 9 of the last 11 winners here played at least 3 events in January and February prior to playing here (Vaughn Taylor and Phil last year are the only ones not to)
  • Ted Potter, Phil (in 2012) and Vaughn Taylor are the only 3 winners the last 11 years that didn’t have a T15 in one of their 3 prior events that calendar year
  • The leader or co-leader after 54 holes, has gone on to win 11 times since 2000 including 6 of the past 7 years (Phil was 3 back from Casey last year)

Key Stats

SG: Approach (4x more impactful than SG: OTT), Par 4s Gained (350-400 yds), SG: T2G, SG: ATG

Main proximity distance range on approach: 100-150 yds

Field

156 players (not including all the amateurs)

Cut: T60 and ties after 54 holes, different than usual weeks

Defending Champion: Phil Mickelson (-19)

Runner Up Last Year: Paul Casey (-16)

One and Done: Jason Day

Alternate: Paul Casey

One and Done Considerations: Day, Casey

Players

Paul Casey: 10500: +1800 – Has gained strokes OTT and Approach in every single event since last year’s Players, past 2 years here: 2nd, 8th, T21 at US Open there last year, great ballstriking and approach

Jason Day: 10300: +1800 – Last 5 years: 4,2,5,11,4 – doesn’t have worse than a T11 here ever, 10/10 made cuts here, T21 at US Open here last year, really good on approach from 100-150 yds

Brandon Grace: 9300: +2500 – on Euro Tour: 6th is SG: Approach, 16th in Birdie+ %, 7th SG: T2G, last week was T10 in Phoenix in T2G and Approach

Russell Knox: 8600: +4000 – Good form lately, irons are good, really good at Par 4 scoring 400-450 yds, has a few T15s here

Jimmy Walker: 7200: +10000 – Has 9/10 made cuts here and a win and 4 T10s here, gained strokes on approach in 5 of his last 6 events

Doc Redman: 6700: +17500 – 9 of last 12 cuts made, T20 in SG: Approach and SG: T2G, good from 125-150 yds, good on Par 4 efficiency 400-450 yds, good GIR

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Look at live betting the leader after 54 holes if it isn’t too pricy
  • Bet each player to win the same amount on the outright, same amount of the risk on the T5 (if line is available)

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