Genesis Invitational – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Riviera Country Club – Los Angeles, CA

Course Breakdown

7322 yd. Par 71, plays long since the Par 5s are short, 3 Par 5s are the easiest holes on the course which give up around 45% of all birdies on this course (#1 is the easiest hole on the PGA and there is the most eagles here) also a drivable Par 4 (#10), one of lowest driving accuracy courses (~53% vs. 61% Tour average), tight fairways, lots of fairway bunkers, challenging doglegs especially to the right side (which favors righty’s that hit a fade or lefty’s who play a draw), tree lined but that shouldn’t effect much if you don’t wildly miss the fairway, spongy kikuya fairways and somewhat thick rough (popular grass in South Africa), small and fast POA greens with undulation and slope, guarded by a lot of bunkers and false fronts, one of lowest GIR courses on tour (~56% vs. Tour average), behind Pebble Beach here has hardest greens to hit on tour from within 125 yds. (76%), toughest putting course between 3-5 feet in 5 of the last 9 seasons, bombers and lefty’s have an advantage (Phil, Bubba)

Tournament Notes

• Now an invitational, so there’s a better reduced field and honestly one of the best fields ever in a non-major tournament

Key Stats

SG: T2G, SG: OTT, Ballstriking, SG: Around the Green, Bogie Avoidance

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-200 yds

Corollary Courses

  • Augusta National (The Masters)
    • Other than James Hahn 5 years ago, every other golfer that has won here in the last 28 years has finished T22 or better at some point in their career
    • 18 of the last 30 winners here have won or come in 2nd at The Masters at some point in their career
    • 24 of the last 30 winners here have finished inside the T10 at Augusta all time
    • 28 of the last 30 winners here have finished inside the T20 at Augusta all time
  • Quail Hollow (Wells Fargo Championship)

Field

120 players including the best in the world, strongest field regular event

Defending Champion: JB Holmes (-14)

Runner Up Last Year: Justin Thomas (-13)

One and Done: Bubba Watson

Alternate: Jon Rahm

One and Done Considerations: Bubba, Rahm, DJ

Players

Rahm: 11200: +900 – T9 in his debut here last year, bomber, my favorite of the top tier, stats set up perfectly, 3 wins and 14 T10s in his last 16 events

Bubba: 9600: +2300 – Back to back T10s, 3 time winner here, lefty, he loves this course, will be very chalky, T20 in 8 of the last 12 years here, leads the field in SG: Total at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, gained in every SG category here the last 5 years, my favorite play of the week

Xander: 9200: +2200 – 2 T10s in his only 2 appearances here, doesn’t have as much distance but he wins big events in smaller fields

Phil: 8300: +4500 – Lefty, hits bombs, 2 time winner here, coming off 3rd place finish at Pebble last week and 3rd in Saudi the week before

Morikawa: 8100: 5000 – Plays well on his debut at courses so worth a little shot even though he’s never played here, best iron player in THIS field over the last 50 rounds, 5th in SG: T2G, very good in proximity from 150-200 yds

Casey: 7900: +5500 – Has been playing pretty decent lately, very cheap on DK, 7/8 made cuts here including last 5 years

Niemann: 7300: +8000 – Made cut his first time here, very good T2G, 7th in Par 4 efficiency 450-500 yds, 2nd on approach 150-175 yds

Carlos Ortiz: 6800: +16000 – Never worst than T26 in 3 times here, kinda sucks though, plays well on long Par 4s, 15th in SG: ATG, 29th in driving distance, 26th in Par 4s gained (450-500 yds)

Draftkings/Betting Notes

• I’m on vacation without access to my book that offers golf, so can’t bet it but if I was home I would be hammering Bubba Watson

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