WGC Mexico Championship – Gambling/DFS Preview 2020

Club de Golf Chapultepec – Mexico City, Mexico

Course Breakdown

7330 yd, Par 71, high altitude (7870 ft), plays way shorter due to the altitude especially on a higher ball flight (around 15% more distance on every shot) so it plays around 6800 yds, Par 5s are lengthy with 2 of them over 600 yards, 6 of the Par 4s are short (under 420 yards), kikuya fairways and rough which are easy to hit wedges out of since the ball sits higher, heavy tree lined tight fairways with fairway bunkers, rough isn’t too big of a factor, harder than average fairways to hit (~59%), easier than average greens to hit (~65%), small poa greens, greens are hard to read the breaks in, good amount of slope and undulation on the greens that mainly slope back to front, greens are guarded by bunkers, players go less than driver on a majority of holes here, plotters course that needs to play strategically (similar to Pete Dye courses), lot of risk/reward, bombers can over power the course

Tournament Notes

  • Phil said two years ago when he won (which I hit a solo bullet winner on, not a big deal) its more about staying out of the woods than hitting the fairways, is more of a placement course to give yourself good angles at the green so sometimes rough is better than the fairway, you need to miss in the right places
  • No cut event
  • SG Approach is much more influential to the Top 5 than OTT and Around the Green combined, only 6 golfers in T20 the last 3 years have lost strokes on approach and last year none inside T10 lost stroke on approach
  • Dustin Johnson, Justin Thomas, Jordan Spieth, Sergio Garcia and Rory McIlroy have never finished outside the top 15 in any of their starts here.
  • Paul Casey, Xander Schauffele, Tommy Fleetwood and Tyrrell Hatton have never finished outside the top 20 in any of their starts here.
  • All 3 winners (DJ twice and Phil), have finished in T10 at Riviera that season (Adam Scott, Matt Kuchar, Rory McIlroy, Hideki Matsuyama, Bryson DeChambeau, Dustin Johnson and Chez Reavie fit that trend)
  • ~65% of winners at WGCs have won majors
  • 13 of the last 16 WGC events have won by T25 players in OWGR

Key Stats

SG Approach, Ballstriking, Birdie+ %

Main proximity distance range on approach: 125-150 yds.

Field

72 players, small elite field (Top 50 OWGR, Top 30 PGA, Top 20 Euro Tour, Top 10 last week, handful of other exemptions) 

Defending Champion: Dustin Johnson (-21)

Runner Up Last Year: Rory McIlroy (-16)

One and Done: Dustin Johnson

Alternate: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: DJ, Rory, Xander

Players

DJ: 11000: +675 – One of the best players in the world, two time winner here, never finished outside T15 here, T10 at Riviera last week even though he didn’t play fantastic, can’t bet him at this price, T5 in Eagles Gained

Xander: 9400: +1600 – Has won WGCs and Tour Championship (elite no cut fields), was really good ballstriking at Riviera (couldn’t put), statistically sets up nicely for this course, never finished outside T20 here (T14, T18 the last 2 years), good on short Par 4s, plays Par 5s well

Fleetwood: 9200: +1800 – First PGA start this season but been on fire in Europe with 11,2,2,1 his last 4 events, good T2G, 7th in bogie avoidance and 13th in double bogie avoidance on PGA Tour, good around the green

Casey: 8700: +3500 – 1st in SG ballstriking (+9.2 SG) last week at Riviera but sucked at putting, never finished outside T20 his 3 times here (3,12,16 finishes) and never lost strokes putting here (shocker), great iron player, good T2G, good on short Par 4s

Morikowa: 8500: +3500 – 1st in SG: Approach, on a solid roll even on all these good courses even if he never played there

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • The top tier guys win all the WGC, don’t waste money betting on long shots. Probably won’t pay off
  • Scott Brown is my 1&D at the Puerto Rico Open (Viktor Hovland is my backup) – I’m not doing much research on this shit ball tournament

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