RBC Heritage – Gambling/DFS Preview 2021

Harbour Town Golf Links – Hilton Head, SC

Course Breakdown

Par 71, Pete Dye designed course, 7099 yards (short for a PGA course), 4 par 3s, 3 par 5s (2 are reachable by most), thick tight tree lined course that really rewards driving accuracy and positioning off the tee (has to target specific parts of the fairway to set up approach shots), plotters course that handcuffs bombers a bit, overhanging trees so accuracy is important everywhere on the course, Bermuda fairways, easier than average fairways to hit (~66%), less than driver course with shortest drives on tour the last two seasons with a lot of forced layups (267 yds vs. tour average 282 yds), driving distance does not matter here, bunkers and water hazards are in play if you miss wildly off the tee, very tough greens to hit (~57%), smallest greens on tour, well-guarded Bermuda greens, slower than average green speeds, bunkers and overhanging trees guarding most greens and water around a few greens as well, it could get very windy and the swirling wind could play a big factor

Tournament Notes

  • Course history seems to be more important than current form here, but this year’s field could throw off some course history stuff
  • Before 2019, the last 6 winners prior have been trailing by at least 3 strokes after 54 holes (CT Pan trailed 2 strokes two years ago going into the final round and Webb Simpson was in a 4 way tie for first last year)
  • Only 3 54 hole leaders have won in the last 12 years (Webb last year was in a 4 way tie for T1 after 54 holes, with Ancer, Hatton and Palmer)
  • SG: Approach here is twice as important as ATG and OTT on T10 finishes and about 3x as important on T5 finishes
  • Three years ago, 11 of the T15 in SG Approach came T16. So SG: Approach is very important here

Key Stats

SG: Approach, SG: ATG, Driving Accuracy

Main proximity distance range on approach: 175-200 yds, 150-175 yds

Corollary Courses

Pete Dye courses: TPC Sawgrass (The Players), TPC River Highlands (Travelers Championship), TPC Louisiana (Zurich Classic), Austin Country Club (Dell Match Play), PGA West Stadium Course (CareerBuilder Challenge)

Field

137 player, decent strength field

Defending Champion: Webb Simpson (-22)

Runner Up Last Year: Abraham Ancer (-21)

One and Done: Daniel Berger

Alternate: Charley Hoffman

One and Done Considerations: DJ, Morikawa, Berger time

Players

Dustin Johnson: 11600: +1200 – By far the best player in the field, plays Pete Dye courses very well (3rd in SG: Total on Pete Dye over last 24 rds), 1st in SG: T2G, 2nd in ballstriking, 2nd in approach, 9th in SG: ARG, 10th in SG: OTT, 21st in short game, 1st in DK pts, 1st in birdie+ %, 1st in GIR, 1st in Par 4 scoring, 14th in Par 5 scoring, 27th in good drives gained (fairways gained or green/fringe in regulation after missing the fairway)

Collin Morikawa: 10500: +1800 – 2nd in SG: T2G, 3rd in ballstriking, 1st in approach, 17th in SG: OTT, 13th in DK pts, 7th in birdie+ % (4th over 24 rds), 12th in GIR (4th over 24 rds), 14th in Par 4 scoring (1st over 24 rds), 12th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 3rd in good drives gained

Daniel Berger: 10000: +2500 – T3 here last year, 10th in SG: T2G, 10th in ballstriking, 17th in approach, 23rd in short game, 8th in SG: OTT, 15th in putting, 6th in DK pts, 9th in birdie+ % (6th over 24 rds), 9th in GIR over last 24 rds, 16th in Par 4 scoring, 28th in good drives gained (18th over 24 rds)

Corey Conners: 9300: +3500 – 3rd in SG: T2G, 1st in ballstriking, 4th in SG: OTT, 7th in approach (3rd over 24 rds), 3rd in DK pts, 4th in Birdie+ %, 3rd in GIR (1st over 24 rds), 3rd in Par 4 scoring, 12th in Par 5 scoring (5th over 24 rds), 11th in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 2nd in good drives gained (1st over 24 rds)

Russell Henley: 7900: +5000 – 8th in SG: T2G, 12th in ballstriking, 3rd in appraoch, 17th in short game, 19th in putting, 31st in SG: ARG, 15th in GIR, 2nd in Par 4 scoring, 19th in good drives gained

Charley Hoffman: 7800: +5000 – 12th in SG: T2G (5th over 24 rds), 6th in ballstriking (4th over 24 rds), 19th in SG: OTT, 8th in approach (2nd over 24 rds), 29th in putting, 4th in DK pts, 5th in Birdie+ % (2nd over 24 rds), 29th in Par 5 scoring over last 24 rds, 16th in GIR, 26th in Par 4 scoring (4th over 24 rds), 1st in Par 3 scoring 175-200 yds, 23rd in good drives gained

Chris Kirk: 7500: +5500 – 15th in SG: T2G (11th over 24 rds), 23rd in ballstriking, 26th in approach, 27th in SG: OTT,  21st in SG: ARG (9th over 24 rds), 31st in short game, 22nd in DK pts, 33rd in Birdie+ %, 39th in Par 5 scoring over last 24 rds, 29th in GIR, 9th in Par 4 scoring, 21st in good drives gained (6th over 24 rds)

All stats based on last 50 rounds unless noted

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • My biggest gambling win ever came here four years ago when Wes Bryan won and I came in 7th in the big $33 GPP on Draftkings on Easter Sunday
  • Generally lower 6/6 percentage on DK here
  • A lot of winners here move up the leaderboard on Sunday, so look at live betting opportunities

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