Farmers Insurance Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2022

Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, CA

Course Breakdown

South Course (All rounds): 7756 yds. Par 72, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, 6 of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yds, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590yds so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in 2, OTT golfers will see narrow tree lined fairways with a lot of bunkers, only about 50% of fairways are hit on average here every year (~, rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors rightys that hit a cut OTT, average to small sized POA greens,  multitiered with undulation and are very quick, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was last year for the US Open

North Course (Only round 1 or 2): 7258 yds. Par 72, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (which need to be scored on to make the cut), OTT golfers will see average sized fairways with thickish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bent grass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker, significantly lower driving accuracy here (~49% vs. tour average ~62%), higher GIR % here (~72% vs. tour average ~66%)

Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: 7 of the 8 Par 3s are longer than 200 yds, 6 or 7 long Par 4s of 400-450 yds each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds

Tournament Notes

  • This year, this tournament is running from Wednesday-Saturday instead of the usual Thursday-Sunday to not compete with the NFL Conference Championship rounds
  • 13 of the last 15 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm and Scott Stallings)
  • 7 of the last 8 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
  • 10 of the last 16 winners finished that season T30 in Driving Distance. The ones that didn’t putt lights out to win
  • Before the last three years with Reed, Leishman and Rose winning after starting on the North Course, the 8 winners prior played the South Course on Thursday
  • No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
  • Good players win here. There has only been 2 shitty winners here in like the last 17 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014 and Ben Crane in 2010
  • Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens
  • 9 of the last 16 winners have finished inside the top 25 in driving distance for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28) 

Key Stats

Approach, SG: ARG, SG: OTT, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yds

Main proximity distance range on approach (South Course): 200+ yds (26.5%)

Field

156 golfers – best field strength of the year so far

Defending Champion: Patrick Reed (-14)

Runner Up Last Year: Norlander, Schauffele, Hovland, Palmer, Finau (-9)

One and Done: Jon Rahm

One and Done Considerations: Rahm – pick the best players

Players

Jon Rahm: 11200: +700 – Best golfer in the world, won the US Open here last year for his first major, had his first career win here for this tournament in 2017 his first time here, 7,2,5,29,1 here the last five years, T14 last week at Amex where he complained that it was too easy of a setup, 2nd at TOC two weeks prior, 11th in approach, 1st in ballstriking, 2nd in SG: T2G, 2nd in SG: OTT, 14th in driving distance, 2nd in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 12th in short game, 51st in SG: ARG, 11th in putting, 16th in opportunities gained, 3rd in birdie+ gained, 1st in DK pts

Bryson DeChambeau: 9900: +1800 – T26 at the US Open here last year, MCs at this event in 2017 and 2018 but he was a completely different player back then, T25 at TOC, 62nd in approach, 9th in ballstriking, 28th in SG: T2G, 1st in SG: OTT, 1st in driving distance, 27th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 4th in proximity 200+ yds, 69th in short game, 142nd in SG: ARG, 15th in putting, 3rd in opportunities gained, 1st in birdie+ gained, 2nd in DK pts

Sungjae Im: 9300: +3000 – T11,MC,T8,T19 his last four events, T32,T36,T35 the last 3 years here, T35 at US Open here last year, 29th in approach, 13th in ballstriking, 3rd in SG: T2G, 7th in SG: OTT, 73rd in driving distance, 1st in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 5th in proximity 200+ yds, 18th in short game, 6th in SG: ARG, 44th in putting, 56th in opportunities gained, 9 in birdie+ gained, 5th in DK pts

Will Zalatoris: 9200: +3000 – Might be the most popular play on the board this week, T6 last week at Amex where he was at the top of the field in ballstriking and T2G, T7 here last year and an MC in 2018 as an amateur, MC at the US Open here last year but I’m not thinking into that much with the USGA setup, 14th in approach, 11th in ballstriking, 6th in SG: T2G, 13th in SG: OTT, 22nd in driving distance, 6th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 1st in proximity 200+ yds, 77th in short game, 48th in SG: ARG, 102nd in putting, 113th in opportunities gained, 65th in birdie+ gained, 73rd in DK pts

Talor Gooch: 8900: +5000 – MC,T27,T15,1,60,T11 his last six events, T48,T36,T3,T51 here the last four years, 6th in approach, 27th in ballstriking, 13th in SG: T2G, 98th in SG: OTT, 47th in driving distance, 28th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 19th in proximity 200+ yds, 36th in short game, 15th in SG: ARG, 71st in putting, 10th in opportunities gained, 17th in birdie+ gained, 6th in DK pts

Luke List: 7600: +8000 – T22,T10,T11 his last three events, T10,T36,T40,T12,MC the last five years here, 18th in approach, 5th in ballstriking, 1st in SG: T2G, 6th in SG: OTT, 11th in driving distance, 49th in Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds, 9th in proximity 200+ yds, 103rd in short game, 1st in SG: ARG, awful 142nd in putting, 19th in opportunities gained, 21st in birdie+ gained, 33rd in DK pts

Model

Approach (20%)

Ballstriking (10%)

SG: T2G (5%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving distance (5%)

Par 4 scoring 450-500 yds (10%)

Proximity 200+ yds (10%)

Short game (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

DK pts (0%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on Draftkings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course and even more so, the guys that start on Hole 1 on the North course, since there’s a nice birdie streak possibility with a stretch of easy holes from 9-12
  • Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament
  • The way I build my outright bet sizes is to figure out how much it would take to win 5 units and round up

Bets

Outrights Winners

0.8u Jon Rahm (+700)

0.33u Bryson DeChambeau (+1800)

0.2u Sungjae Im (+3000)

0.2u Will Zalatoris (+3000)

0.1u Talor Gooch (+5000)

0.08u Luke List (+8000)

Top 5s

0.2u Sungjae Im (+650)

0.2u Will Zalatoris (+650)

0.1u Talor Gooch (+900)

0.08u Luke List (+1200)

Tournament Matchups and 3 Balls

0.1u Dahmen vs. Streelman (-125)

0.1u Im vs. Leishman (-130)

0.1u Rahm vs. Thomas (-150)

1st Round Matchups and 3 Balls

0.1u Zalatoris vs. Noh/Piercy (-125)

0.1u Zalatoris vs. Scheffler (+105)

0.1u Pan vs. Streb/Fritteli (+163)

0.1u Burns vs. Laird/Hoffman (-105)

0.1u Dahmen vs. Kim/Taylor (+175)

0.1u Im vs. Davis/Thompson (+110)

0.1u Wolff vs. Herman/Poston (+110)

0.1u Hoge vs. Hahn/Haas (-105)

0.1u Gooch vs. Ortiz/Reavie (+120)

0.1u Vegas vs. Malnati/Huh (+125)

0.1u Scheffler vs. Griffin/Trainer (-105)

0.1u Rahm vs. Thomas/Johnson (+130)

0.1u Rahm vs. Thomas (-137)

2nd Round Matchups and 3 Balls

0.2u Scheffler vs. Griffin/Trainer (-137)

0.2u Zalatoris vs. Piercy/Noh (-145)

0.1u Lebioda vs. Redman/Higgs (+175)

0.1u Zalatoris vs. Scheffler (+100)

0.1u Rahm vs. Thomas/Johnson (+100)

0.1u Johnson vs. Matsuyama (-110)

0.1u Leishman vs. Mickelson/Reed (+125)

0.1u Stallings vs. Hadwin/Cook (+145)

0.1u Noren vs. Sabbatini/Norlander (+130)

3nd Round Matchups and 3 Balls

0.1u Villegas vs. Spaun/Straka (+200)

0.1u Berger vs. Matsuyama/Pan (+138)

0.1u Pereira vs. Ghim/Sabbatini (+150)

0.1u Leishman vs. Taylor/Reed (+130)

0.1u Burgoon vs. Perez/Streb (+200)

0.1u Smotherman vs. Ramey/Piercy (+210)

0.1u Bezuidenhout vs. Rose/Pendrith (+163)

0.1u Niemann vs. McNealy (-110)

0.1u Scheffler vs. Montgomery/Redman (-120)

0.1u Palmer vs. Horschel (-110)

0.1u List vs. Day (-110)

0.1u Palmer vs. Day/Theegala (+138)

0.1u Tringale vs. Kim (-115) 

0.1u Rahm vs. Thomas/Schenk (-110)


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