Last night I went 3-1 on the NHL, losing 0.45 units. Fun night with a lot of action. Huge comeback for the Avs 4-3 overtime win (double winner on the ML and over) to save the night after the Caps couldn’t muster up more than a goal in their 4-1 home loss to the Sharks losing my 1.5 unit bet on them as -230 favorites. That’s a price that I usually stay off betting but it seemed like a great spot and they had a ton of great chances and couldn’t capitalize on them. Onto tonight, where we have a big ten game slate with a lot of nice matchups for us to bet on.
Blue Jackets vs. Rangers (7:00)
Columbus has been pretty bad lately with just six wins in their last 22 games, dropping them to 18-21-1 on the season. Last night the Blue Jackets got shut out at home in an embarrassing 6-0 loss to Calgary where they allowed a HORRID 62 shots on goal. This is one of the worst defenses in the league, allowing an average of 3.6 goals per game, third most in the NHL. Offensively, they’ve averaged 2.95 goals per game this season. On the other hand, the Rangers have been a very good team. They’re 28-11-4 and only have one loss in their last six games. The Rags are on the opposite end of the defensive stat sheet than the Jackets are, allowing the third fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.54 goals per game. They’re scoring an average of 3 goals per game. The Rangers are 2-0 this season against Columbus with a 4-0 win at home on October 29th and a 5-3 win in Columbus on November 13th. I think this is a real solid spot for the Rangers on several days rest vs. a horrible Columbus team that gave up over a shot per minute yesterday. Even with Georgiev starting for the Rangers, I’ll take them for 2 units. In addition, I’ll take the over for a unit.
Canadiens vs. Ducks (7:00)
Last night the Ducks came back from down 3-1 to the Leafs in Toronto before losing in a shootout in a great game. Anaheim’s having a decent season at 21-16-8 and with their 2-0-1 record in their last three games since getting healthy, they seem to be coming back from the lousy run they have been on since coming back from the Christmas break. They’re scoring an average of 2.89 goals per game but have allowed just 2.8 goals per game. The Habs are absolutely the worst team in the NHL. They’re 8-26-7 with only one win in their last ten games and just two wins in their last 18. Montreal’s scored the fewest goals in hockey this season, only 2.17 goals per game on average while they’ve allowed the most, an average of 3.76 per game. When these teams played in Anaheim on Halloween night, the Ducks won 4-2. Even with the Ducks on the second half of a back to back on the road after last night’s lost to the Leafs and with Stolarz starting in goal, I like them to bounce back with a win here and I’ll take them for 2 units at a price that’s cheaper than I thought it would be.
Senators vs. Hurricanes (7:00)
The first time these teams met this season on December 2nd, Ottawa won 3-2 in Carolina in a quite surprising game for how lopsided this matchup looks. Carolina’s one of the top teams in the NHL with a 28-9-2 record and have just one loss in their last five games (in a game that they were on their terrible third string goalie). They’re averaging 3.59 goals per game, fourth most in the NHL and allowing the fewest goals in the league, just 2.41 goals per game on average. The Senators on the other hand, haven’t been great this season. They’re 13-20-3 and come into this game off back to back wins that came against very weak competition against the Sabres and Blue Jackets. The Sens are averaging only 2.83 goals per game and allowing the sixth most goals in hockey, an average of 3.47 goals per game. I like the Canes to get their revenge here for that December loss. I’ll take Carolina in regulation for 1.5 units, the Canes TT over 3.5 for a unit and the Sens TT under 2.5 in regulation for half a unit.
Lightning vs. Devils (7:00)
The Bolts have been great hockey lately, with only one loss in their last six games. They’re 28-10-5 on the season and return home for the first time in twelve days after their California road trip with a pretty favorable matchup tonight against the Devils. Tampa’s averaging 3.42 goals per game, sixth most in the NHL and allowing an average of 2.79 per game. The Devils have been brutal lately. They’re now 15-21-5 on the season and have only one win (against a third string terrible goaltender) in their last six games. They are averaging 2.85 goals per game and allowing an average of 3.44 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL. The Lightning should be able to stomp on the Devils tonight. I don’t think it’s worth laying -360 on any game but I’ll take the Lightning in regulation for a unit here and 2 units on the Bolts TT over 3.5. I’d lean the over as well but don’t want to have to rely on the Devils to score on Vasilevskiy so I’ll skip that.
Panthers vs. Golden Knights (7:00)
This should be a fun game. The Florida Panthers are have a great season at 29-9-5 with the best home record in hockey at 21-3 and they have just three losses in their last 14 games since coming back from the Christmas break. They have the second highest scoring offense in the NHL, averaging 4.02 goals per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.84 goals per game. Backup Spencer Knight is confirmed in goal tonight for Florida, who hasn’t been great this season. He has an 8-5-2 record, 3.31 GAA and .896 save percentage. Vegas has had plenty of injury issues this season but still are a respectable 25-15-3 and they’ll be very dangerous later in the season when they’re healthy and Jack Eichel gets inserted into an already very good offense. The Knights come into this game off a 4-3 overtime loss in Carolina (lost my regulation bet on the Canes) on Tuesday night where they forced OT with two goals in the last seven minutes of the game. They have a 3-3-3 record in their last nine games. Even with all their injuries, the Vegas offense is still averaging 3.4 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and are allowing an average of 2.98 goals per game. I like Florida to keep the home win streak going but the Vegas offense against Knight scares me a bit so I’ll scale down a little bit and go with a half unit on the ML here. I really like the over on this game but no shot I’m betting it at 7. I’ll buy the over on this game down to 6.5 and play the heavier juice on it for half a unit and I’ll take both TT overs for a half unit each.
Islanders vs. Kings (7:00)
I’m expecting a defensive battle in this game that matches up two of the top seven defenses in the NHL. Coming off their 4-3 win against Philly on Tuesday night, the Islanders are now 15-14-6 with seven wins in their last nine games. A big improvement from their terrible 5-10-5 start to the season. They’re only scoring an average of 2.37 goals per game, third fewest in the NHL but have also only allowed an average of 2.6 goals per game, fifth fewest in the league. LA’s 21-16-6 and they only have one win in their last five games, coming off a 3-2 shootout loss to the Rangers on Monday night (triple winner for me on the Rags ML, the under and Kings TT under). The Kings are very similar statistically to the Islanders, averaging only 2.72 goals per game, ninth fewest in the NHL but allowing a seventh fewest 2.63 per game. I’d slightly lean the Isles win this one at home but not enough for me to bet on it. The play I like here is the under with two lousy offenses and two good defenses with good goaltending. The over/under on this game is set to 5, which is pretty low so I’ll buy it up to 5.5 for a unit.
Penguins vs. Kraken (7:00)
The Penguins are the hottest team in the NHL. They’re 27-10-5 on a six game winning streak and only two losses in their last 19 games. They’re scoring an average of 3.4 goals per game, seventh most in the NHL and allowing the fourth fewest goals in the league, an average of only 2.55 goals per game. Tristan Jarry’s one of the top goalies in the NHL this season with a 23-7-4 record, 2.12 GAA and .926 save percentage. Seattle’s inaugural season hasn’t be great for them. The Kraken are 13-25-4 but have been playing decent lately with three wins in their last five games, after only having one win in their previous 13. Seattle is averaging only 2.64 goals per game, eighth fewest in the NHL but haven’t been able to keep the puck out of the back of their own net, allowing an average of 3.6 goals per game, the third most in hockey. Philipp Grubauer played great in his last win against Florida, but has been pretty bad this season with a 10-16-4 record, 3.28 GAA and .883 save percentage. Pittsburgh should be able to handled the Kraken at home pretty easily tonight, just as they did in Seattle on December 6th when they won 6-1. I’m not laying the -350 ML in any game and even the -215 regulation line on the Pens isn’t worth it here. I’ll go with the Penguins TT over 3.5 for 1.5 units in this game.
Blues vs. Flames (8:00)
Last night Calgary embarrassed the Columbus Blue Jackets 6-0 in a game where they averaged over a shot on goal per minute for their third big win in their last four games. The Flames are 20-12-6, averaging a ninth most 3.26 goals per game while only allowing a second fewest 2.47 goals per game. A lot of that great back end can be attributed to Markstrom’s play in goal, but tonight Dan Vladar will likely get the nod on the second half of this road back to back. St. Louis comes off their embarrassing 7-1 loss in Calgary on Monday night. That was a bad spot for the Blues on the second half of a back to back with three road games in four nights. The Blues are having a really solid season at 25-12-5 with a 16-4-2 record. They’re averaging 3.45 goals per game, fifth most in the NHL and have the third most efficient power play in hockey, scoring on 28.9% of those chances. They’ve been good defensively too, allowing an eighth fewest 2.71 goals per game. Ville Husso who’s starting tonight, has been probably the most improved goalie in hockey this year, going from an absolute liability to an 8-2-1, 1.88 GAA and .943 save percentage with two shutouts this season. Just as I thought the Blues were in a bad spot on Monday in Calgary, I think Calgary’s in a bad spot tonight in St. Louis. I like the Blues to get their revenge here and I’ll take them for a unit here. I’d lean the over but not enough to bet it.
Jets vs. Canucks (8:00)
Both of these Canadian teams come into this game on losing streaks, so one of them has to end tonight. The Jets are 17-15-7 and haven’t won in their last five games. They’re scoring an average of only 2.74 goals per game and allowing an average of 2.9 per game. Vancouver’s on a three game skid of their own dropping to 18-19-5. They’re even worse offensively than Winnipeg, scoring a fifth fewest in the NHL average of 2.43 goals per game. They have been better defensively though, allowing a twelfth fewest in the NHL 2.76 goals per game. They’re still without their top two goalies and will have to go with Spencer Martin again tonight, who has overtime losses in both of his first two starts. I’d slightly lean Winnipeg at home here with the more experienced goaltending from Hellebuyck but I have no interest in betting this game.
Oilers vs. Predators (9:00)
Nashville’s on a three game win streak coming into tonight’s game. They’re a pretty good team at 27-14-3 this season. They’ve scored an average of 3.11 goals per game, 13th most in the NHL and have been great defensively, allowing just 2.71 goals per game, eighth fewest in the league, mainly on Juuse Saros great play in goal. The Oilers finally got off their pathetic seven game losing streak with back to back wins against Calgary and Vancouver. They’re averaging 3.24 goals per game, eleventh most in the NHL with Draisaitl, who leads the NHL with 59 points and McDavid involved in around 50% of those goals, each. So all of their offensive production is pretty much coming from just those two players. They’ve been horrible defensively, allowing a ninth most 3.37 goals per game with just bad play in goal from Koskinen, who has a 3.24 GAA and .899 save percentage. I like the Preds to win this game as long as Saros starts but the best play on this game is none at all, so I’ll just skip it. I’d slightly lean the over.
2u Rangers ML (-190)
1u Rangers/Blue Jackets over 6 (-115)
2u Ducks ML (-140)
1.5u Carolina in regulation (-157)
1u Carolina TT over 3.5 (-125)
.5u Sens TT under 2.5 in regulation (-141)
1u Lightning in regulation (-200)
2u Lightning TT over 3.5 (-150)
.5u Florida ML (-160)
.5u Florida/Vegas over 6.5 (-150)
.5u Florida TT over 3.5 (-125)
.5u Vegas TT over 3 (-122)
1u Islanders/Kings under 5.5 (-150)
1.5u Penguins TT over 3.5 (-150)
1u Blues ML (-140)
Record: 358-244-14 (+21.58 units)
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