Another bad swing on the late NHL games yesterday, going 5-7 to lose 1.87 units.
Its still so early in the season and there’s still too much variance, so I’m going to take a bit of a step back on the action and only play the bets I really love until that variance tapers off, like it does every season. Then once things start clicking, I’ll crank it up as usual.
Today we have a small five game slate. Let’s try finding some value here.
Devils vs. Blue Jackets (2:00)
The Devils are 5-3 on the season after opening the year with two losses, they’ve now won five of their last six games. They’re coming off a 1-0 shutout win on Friday against the defending cup champion Avalanche. New Jersey has been very good offensively, they’re first in expected goals and that’s translating to an average of 3 goals per game on an average of 37.6 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve been quite good too, allowing an average of 2.75 goals per game on an average of 21.8 shots allowed per game. The Blue Jackets just got shut out 4-0 by the Bruins on Friday (easy double winner there for me) to drop to 3-6 on the season. They’ve been okay enough offensively, averaging 2.78 goals per game on an average of 30.7 shots. Their defense and goaltending has struggled though, allowing an average of 4.11 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots allowed. Last season in the four games between these teams the Jackets won three of them, all by a 4-3 score with the Devils winning the other game 3-1. New Jersey’s a really solid team this year while I expect Columbus to struggle all season. I don’t think the -205 moneyline is worth it but I’ll take the Devils in regulation for half a unit in this Metro Division matinee. I’d lean the over here too but not enough to bet on it, especially while I’m trying to only bet plays I really like.
Blackhawks vs. Wild (7:00)
Last night the Blackhawks had a 3-1 lead against the Sabres but with less than ten minutes left in regulation, Buffalo came back to beat them 4-3 in overtime, giving Chicago their second loss in a row in a game where the Hawks got outshot 45-26. Chicago’s overachieved from my expectations of them this season, coming into today’s game with a 4-3-1 record. They’ve been pretty efficient offensively, scoring an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of just 26.1 shots per game. Defensively, they have allowed an average of 3.38 goals per game on an average of 34.3 shots they’ve given up. The Wild are on the second half of a back to back as well, coming off a 2-1 loss in Detroit last night (my over on that game didn’t stand a chance). Minnesota’s been pretty disappointing to start their season, going 3-4-1 in their first eight games. They’ve been fine offensively, scoring an average of 3.38 goals per game on an average of 34.5 shots on goal. They’ve struggled big time on the back end though, allowing an average of 4 goals per game on an average of 32.1 shots on goal. Last year the Wild swept the Blackhawks in the four games these teams played. I’d lean the Wild win this game and would lean the over as well, but these teams have both been too difficult to gauge early in the season for me to bet it, especially with both teams on the second half of a back to back after losses yesterday. If I wasn’t trying to reduce my cards, I’d likely be on the over in this one, but I’ll just stay off this game completely.
Ducks vs. Maple Leafs (8:00)
The Leafs are looking to end their three game losing streak in Anaheim today after last night’s 4-2 loss in LA. Toronto’s now 4-4-1 on the season. Their offense has struggled, averaging 2.67 goals per game on an average of 30.9 shots on goal. Defensively they’ve been okay enough, giving up an average of 2.89 goals per game on a low shot average of 27.6 they’ve allowed. They’ll be starting third string goalie Erik Karlgren in goal tonight who has been pretty bad to start the year with a 3.5 GAA, .857 save percentage. The Ducks are one of the worst teams in the NHL, starting their year 1-6-1 and coming into todays game on a seven game losing streak off a 4-0 shutout loss in Vegas on Friday. Anaheim has struggled on both ends of the ice. They’ve only scored an average of 2 goals per game, generating an average of just 25.8 shots per game and they’ve allowed a high average of 4.38 goals per game, giving up an average of 37.4 shots against them. The Leafs won both games between these teams last year with scores of 5-1 and 4-3. This should be a get right spot on the road for Toronto to bounce back from their losing streak on the west coast. That being said, I don’t trust them enough to bet on them here especially with Kallgren in goal. I’ll lay off this game. I’d lean Toronto and the over.
Coyotes vs. Rangers (8:00)
The Coyotes lost 3-2 in overtime to the Jets in their home opener on Friday in the complete embarrassment of Mullett Arena, a 5000 person joke of an arena on Arizona State’s campus. So pathetic for the NHL to put guys in that arena when they’ve worked their whole life at hockey to get to this level. The Yotes are 2-4-1 on the season. They’ve been efficient offensively, scoring an average of 3 goals per game on an average of only 22.9 shots on goal. They’ve been brutal defensively with bad goaltending and have allowed an average of 4.57 goals per game on an average of 36.3 shots allowed. Arizona has backup Connor Ingram confirmed in goal today, who has a terrible 4.02 GAA and .871 save percentage in his two games this season. Yesterday afternoon the Rangers got a huge win in Dallas, beating the Stars 6-3 (my under there didn’t stand a chance). New York has both scored and allowed an average of 3.11 goals per game, outshooting their competition by an average of 36.2-30.2 shots per game. The Rags are projected to start backup Jaroslav Halak today after Igor Shesterkin got the start for them yesterday afternoon. Halak is still looking for his first win of the season and through his three starts has been pretty bad with a 3.69 GAA and .867 save percentage. The Rangers won both games they had against the Yotes last year, beating them 3-2 and in a 7-3 blowout. New York should win this game, even on the second half of a back to back on the road with Halak starting, but I don’t think they’re worth betting on at -205. I like the over a lot though with both backups starting and I’ll take it for half a unit.
Golden Knights vs. Jets (8:00)
The Golden Knights have started their season off great, coming into today’s game with a 7-2 record on a three game win streak after shutting out the Ducks in a 4-0 win on Friday night. They have scored an average of 3.33 goals per game on an average of 32.4 shots on goal and they’ve allowed only 1.78 goals per game on an average of 29.6 shots. The Jets are on a three game win streak to come into tonight’s game with a 5-3 record. They’re coming off a 3-2 overtime win win Arizona on Friday night. Winnipeg has scored an average of 3.13 goals per game on an average of 30.4 shots per game and they’ve allowed an average of 2.88 goals per game on an average of 31.6 shots on goal allowed. The Jets started their backup David Rittich on Friday, so their world class goaltender Connor Hellebuyck should be back in goal against the Knights tonight. Winnipeg won all three games between these teams last year but the Knights already have a 5-2 win at home this season against the Jets on October 20th. I like the Golden Knights to win here at home tonight but I think its overpriced at -210, so I’ll stay off betting on it. I’d lean the under as well, but not enough to bet it.
Game Bets
.5u Devils in regulation (-129)
.5u Rangers/Coyotes over 6.5 (-110)
Record: 65-62-2 (-13.4 units)
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