Sea Island Golf Club – St. Simons Island, Georgia

We’ve reached the final event of the PGA Tour fall swing season with The RSM Classic this week at Sea Island Golf Club in Georgia. I’ve had my best stretch ever, hitting four of the eight winners this fall. Let’s finish it off even better to close out the year! 

Course Breakdown

Seaside Course (Rounds 1-4)

Par 70, 7005 yards, in dry conditions most golfers should be able to reach in two if the wind isn’t in their face, traditional links style course where wind is the biggest defense on this course, nine Par 4s between 400-450 yards, average sized fairways that get more narrow as you get closer to the hole, lot of golfers will go less than driver off the tee (average driving distance ~276 yards vs. tour average ~283 yards), ~71% of fairways hit here (vs. ~62% tour average), ~74% GIR percentage which is much higher than ~66% tour average, fairly tough and thick rough but the course is so short that it isn’t too penal, bunkers, sandy native areas, seaside vegetation, water and marshland if you miss the fairway, fairways are rolling and hilly and should play firm, large oversewed Bermuda greens, most greens are elevated with lots of slope and undulation, bunkers and thick rough guarding the greens

Plantation Course (Rounds 1-2)

Par 72, 7160 yards, redesigned a few years back and played more difficult than it used to be but is still the slightly easier course of the two, all the Par 5s are reachable in two with none being longer than 560 yards, wide tree lined fairways and way more bunkers than the Seaside course, the trees should make wind less of a factor than the seaside course, fairways are relatively flat with a good amount of roll, much smaller greens than the Seaside course with more bunkers guarding them than, greens are firm with a lot of slope added with golfers forced to hit certain quadrants of the green to have a shot at birdie

Tournament Notes

• Last event of the 2022 calendar year
• This has been a two course rotation since 2015 with all the events prior just taking place on the Seaside course
• SEC Championship is usually played on this course

Key Stats

Approach, Par 4 Scoring, Opportunities Gained

Main proximity distance range on approach: 150-175 yards (23.4% on Seaside Course)

Corollary Courses

Harbour Town Golf Links (RBC Heritage), Waialae Country Club (Sony Open) – six of the twelve winners here have a T5 or better on one of these two courses prior to their win here

Field

152 golfers – pretty weak field strength to close out the season, especially after Finau WD

Last Year’s Champion: Talor Gooch (-22) (not defending since he’s on the LIV Tour now)

Runner Up Last Year: Mackenzie Hughes (-19)

Players

Brian Harman: 10300: +ODDS – 61,MC,14,32,4 finishes here in the last five years, 2,23,15,21,35,3 finishes in his last six events, 12th in Approach, 35th in SG: OTT, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 49th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 17th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 16th in SG: ARG, 96th in Putting, 35th in Opportunities Gained, 37th in Birdie+ Gained, 4th in Bogie Avoidance

Tom Hoge: 9800: +ODDS – 4th here last year with 4,MC,MC,37,25,MC,9,32 finishes here, MC,13,9,4,12,10 finishes in his last six events, 2nd in Approach, 88th in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 17th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 85th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 139th in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 1st in Opportunities Gained, 6th in Birdie+ Gained, 23rd in Bogie Avoidance

Brendon Todd: 8000: +ODDS – MC,37,4,54,83,48,16,MC finishes here going back to 2012, 53,7,28,MC,9 finishes in his last five events, 48th in Approach, 126th in SG: OTT, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 24th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 31st in SG: ARG, 4th in Putting, 70th in Opportunities Gained, 8th in Birdie+ Gained, 64th in Bogie Avoidance

Lee Hodges: 7300: +ODDS – 57 and 54 finishes here last year and 2018, MC,38,7,23 finishes in his last four events, 6th in Approach, 16th in SG: OTT, 25th in Par 4 Scoring, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 26th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 122nd in SG: ARG, 79th in Putting, 25th in Opportunities Gained, 52nd in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance

Ben Griffin: 7300: +ODDS – missed cut here in 2018 for his only time here as an amateur, 16,59,3,60,24,MC,4 finishes in his last seven events, 7th in Approach, 96th in SG: OTT, 8th in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 110th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 42nd in SG: ARG, 25th in Putting, 32nd in Opportunities Gained, 2nd in Birdie+ Gained, 96th in Bogie Avoidance

Trey Mullinax: 7300: +ODDS – MC,65,37,MC,25 finishes here, 4,71,MC,MC,12,5 finishes in his last six events, 8th in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 21st in Par 4 Scoring, 87th in Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards, 34th in Proximity 150-175 yards, 146th in SG: ARG, 74th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 3rd in Birdie+ Gained, 12th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (25%)

SG: OTT (5%)

Par 4 Scoring (10%)

Par 4 Scoring: 400-450 yards (5%)

Proximity 150-175 yards (5%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (10%)

Opportunities Gained (15%)

Birdie+ Gained (10%)

Bogie Avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

• Let’s hit some DFS winners this week to close the season along with the outright!

Bets

Outrights

.5u Brian Harman (+2000)

.4u Tom Hoge (+2500)

.2u Brendon Todd (+5500)

.16u Lee Hodges (+6600)

.12u Trey Mullinax (+9000)

.1u Ben Griffin (+10000)

DraftKings Lineups

Lineup 1: Harman, Hoge, Todd, Hodges, Griffin, Mullinax

Contests: 

$20 GPP ($100k to 1st, 17647 players)

$25 Single Entry Double Up (275 players)

---

Please follow me:

Instagram: @atownszone

Twitter: @atownszone

TikTok: @atownszone

If you like the site and my work, share it with your friends!