Farmers Insurance Open – Gambling/DFS Preview 2023

Torrey Pines Golf Course – San Diego, CA

The PGA Tour heads to one of the most iconic venues in golf this week for the Farmers Insurance Open at Torrey Pines Golf Course in San Diego, with an early start going from Wednesday-Saturday.

Course Breakdown

South Course (All rounds): 7756 yds. Par 72, one of the longest and most difficult courses on tour, the longest regular course (non-major) on the PGA Tour, plays 3-4 strokes more difficult on average than the North course, bombers course, 6 of the Par 4s are longer than 450 yds, Par 5s are lengthy averaging 590yds so most golfers won’t be able to reach all the greens in 2, OTT golfers will see narrow tree-lined fairways with a lot of bunkers and even thinner, only about 50% of fairways are hit on average here every year, rough is pretty thick and gnarly, lot of holes have a slight dogleg right which favors rightys that hit a cut off the tee, average to small sized POA greens,  multitiered with undulation and false fronts that are very quick, lot of which are guarded in the front by large bunkers and thick, tall rough, won’t be as tough as the setup was for the US Open

North Course (Only round 1 or 2): 7258 yds. Par 72, no player has shot their round over par here and won since 1983, all Par 5s are reachable by most golfers and there is a drivable Par 4 (really need to score on these five holes to even make the cut), off the tee golfers will see average sized fairways with thickish rough with some bunkers and trees, but a lot less than the South course, larger bentgrass greens with bunkers guarding them, no shot tracker, significantly lower driving accuracy here (~49% vs. tour average ~62%), higher GIR % here (~72% vs. tour average ~66%)

Both: Kikuya grass on the fairways and rough, across both courses: 7 of the 8 Par 3s are longer than 200 yds, 6 or 7 long Par 4s of 400-450 yds each round, weather could play a large factor since it is near the ocean and affected by trade winds

Tournament Notes

  • This tournament is running from Wednesday-Saturday instead of the usual Thursday-Sunday to not compete with the NFL Conference Championship rounds
  • All top 10 finishers in 2022, 7 of the top 9 finishers in 2021 and all of the top 11 finishers in 2019 gained in proximity from 200+ yards
  • 14 of the last 16 winners here had a previous T10 at this event (beside Rahm in his first start here and Scott Stallings)
  • 8 of the last 9 winners made at least one start in the calendar year prior to their win
  • 11 of the last 17 winners finished that season T30 in Driving Distance and 10 of the last 17 winners have finished inside the T25 for the year (Rose was just outside of that at T28). The ones that didn’t had to putt lights out to win
  • No winner has ever shot over par on the North Course since 1983
  • Good players win here. There has only been 3 shitty winners here in like the last 18 years: Scott Stallings (the year he got busted for PEDs) in 2014, Ben Crane in 2010 and Luke List in 2022
  • Around 40% of winners here have had a connection to California (growing up here, living here or going to school here), mainly due to the POA greens

Key Stats

Approach, Proximity 200+ yards, Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards

Main proximity distance range on approach (South Course): 200+ yds (26.5%)

Field

157 golfers – sharp drop off after a strong top of the board

Defending Champion: Luke List (-15 in a playoff)

Runner Up Last Year: Will Zalatoris (-15)

One and Done: Xander Schauffele

One and Done Considerations: Rahm, Xander, Sungjae

Players

Xander Schauffele: 10300: +1200 – First in my model this week, Cali kid, 34,2,MC,25,MC,MC,MC finishes here dating back to him being an amateur when he was missing those cuts, 7th here for the US Open in 2021, 3,9,4,3,57,15,1,1 finishes in his last eight events, 3rd in Approach, 24th in SG: OTT, 62nd in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 1st in Par 5 Scoring, 1st in Proximity 200+ yards, 25th in SG: ARG, 28th in Putting, 12th in Opportunities Gained, 5th in Birdie+ Gained, 2nd in Bogie Avoidance

Will Zalatoris: 9700: +1800 – Lost in the playoff here last year against List (I didn’t hedge), this course fits him well in where it isn’t a birdiefest, Cali kid, 2,7,MC finishes here, 36,11,1,21,20,28 finishes in his last six events, 5th in Approach, 5th in SG: OTT, 16th in Driving Distance, 115th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 41st in Proximity 200+ yards, 66th in SG: ARG, 56th in Putting, 4th in Opportunities Gained, 4th in Birdie+ Gained, 11th in Bogie Avoidance

Sungjae Im: 9300: +2200 – 6,32,36,52 finishes here, 35th here at the US Open in 2021, 18,MC,13,34,29,6,2,15,12,2,2 finishes in his last eleven events, 28th in Approach, 4th in SG: OTT, 82nd in Driving Distance, 23rd in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 7th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 2nd in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Proximity 200+ yards, 56th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 15th in Opportunities Gained, 15th in Birdie+ Gained, 22nd in Bogie Avoidance

Max Homa: 9100: +2200 – Cali kid, MC,18,9 here the last three years, 3,23,20,1,5,23 finishes in his last six events, 71st in Approach, 31st in SG: OTT, 63rd in Driving Distance, 6th in Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards, 14th in Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards, 44th in Par 5 Scoring, 7th in Proximity 200+ yards, 12th in SG: ARG, 11th in Putting, 36th in Opportunities Gained, 13th in Birdie+ Gained, 10th in Bogie Avoidance

Model

Approach (20%)

SG: OTT (10%)

Driving distance (5%)

Par 3 Scoring 200-225 yards (5%)

Par 4 Scoring 450-500 yards (10%)

Par 5 Scoring (5%)

Proximity 200+ yards (15%)

SG: ARG (10%)

Putting (5%)

Opportunities gained (5%)

Birdie+ gained (5%)

Bogie avoidance (5%)

Stats based on past 36 rounds

DraftKings/Betting Notes

  • Stack guys on the North course for Showdown slates on DraftKings and target North course golfers for first round leader bets, since its the easier course and even more so, the guys that start on Hole 1 on the North course, since there’s a nice birdie streak possibility with a stretch of easy holes from 9-12
  • Look to live bet guys that start on the South course after round 1 as they should be a few strokes back from the guys that start on the North course and you’ll be able to get nicer odds vs. pre-tournament
  • I hit the winner on this event last season with Luke List cashing in at 80:1
  • Small card for me this week with only four guys since I’m attacking the top of the board 

Bets

Outrights

.84u Xander Schauffele (+1200)

.56u Will Zalatoris (+1800)

.46u Sungjae Im (+2200)

.46u Max Homa (+2200)


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