No one could have predicted this Atlantic Division series for this second round matchup, with both teams shocking lots of people. The #2 seed Maple Leafs finally got out of the first round for the first time since 2004, defeating the three time defending Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning in six games. The second Wild Card team in the East, the Florida Panthers advancing was even more shocking as they took down the greatest regular season team in NHL history, defeating the President’s Trophy winning Boston Bruins in overtime of Game 7.
The regular season games between these teams were a lot of fun this year, with the Leafs going 3-1 in those games and three of the four games needing overtime to determine a winner. The Leafs won the first game 5-4 in overtime on January 17th, they won 6-2 in Florida on March 23rd, the Panthers answered back with a 3-2 overtime win in Toronto on March 29th and the Leafs finished the season series with a 2-1 overtime win on April 10th.
The Maple Leafs have been fantastic the entire season, finishing the regular season in second place in the Atlantic Division behind the Bruins with a 50-21-11 record. They finished the regular season hot, on a four game win streak and a six game point streak, picking up a point in nine of their last ten games. The problem for Toronto is that they’ve been notorious for choking in the playoffs and have not gotten out of the first round since 2004.
Toronto’s been very good on both ends of the ice this year. They’ve scored an average of 3.39 goals per game, the ninth-most in the NHL, on an average of 32 shots per game. They’ve generated the eighth-most expected goals (3.46 per game) and the fourth-most high-danger shots in the league. The Leafs power play is the second-best in the NHL behind the Oilers, scoring on 26% of their opportunities. Mitch Marner (99 points, 69 assists, William Nylander (40 goals), and Auston Matthews (40 goals) led them in scoring this season. They bolstered their roster even more before the trade deadline acquiring Noel Acciari, Ryan O’Reilly, and Jake McCabe.
The Maple Leafs have been just as good defensively. They’ve allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.67 goals per game on an average of 29.5 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the ninth-fewest expected goals (2.94 per game) and the twelfth-fewest high-danger shots. Toronto has killed off 81.9% of their penalties. Ilya Samsonov, acquired from Washington in the offseason, has been good in goal for the Leafs this season with a 27-10-5 record, a 2.33 GAA, a .919 save percentage, and four shutouts.
The Leafs finally got out of their first round slump, making the second round of the playoffs for just the first time since 2004 as they beat the three-time defending Eastern Conference champion Tampa Bay Lightning in six games to advance to the second round. They lost the first game of the series 7-3, getting dominated at home. The Bolts outshot the Leafs 34-31 and slightly outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.32-3.2. In a must-win Game 2 at home, Toronto answered back with a huge 7-2 win to even the series. They scored early and often with Mitch Marner scoring on the power play just 47 seconds into the game and opening the game with a 3-0 first period. Toronto dominated the game, outshooting the Bolts 37-22 and absolutely crushing the Lightning by an expected goal rate of 4.7-1.62. When the series shifted to Tampa for Game 3, the Leafs continued to win, just making it feel different this year. They got a 4-3 overtime win with Ryan O’Reilly scoring the game tying goal with just a minute left in the game and then Morgan Reilly scoring in overtime. Tampa was screwed in that game, as they played better hockey, outshooting the Leafs 39-27 and outplayed Toronto by an expected goal rate of 4.17-2.96. After their 4-3 comeback win in Game 3 in Tampa, Toronto mounted an even more insane comeback in Game 4, coming back from a 4-1 deficit in the third period, forcing overtime and then winning 5-4 on Alex Kerfoot’s game-winner on the power play in OT. The Bolts held off elimination in Game 5 with a 4-2 win at home, but the Leafs finally ended the series in Game 6 at home in Tampa.
Toronto was very good offensively in the first round. They scored an average of 3.83 goals per game, the third-most in the first round of the playoffs, on an average of 30.7 shots per game. Against Tampa, the Leafs scored on 28.6% of their power play opportunities, the sixth-most of any team in the playoffs. Defensively they weren’t great, allowing the sixth-most goals of the first round of the playoffs, an average of 3.5 goals per game on an average of 32.7 shots allowed per game. They killed off 76.2% of their penalties.
After a slow start to the year after winning the President’s Trophy last year and getting bounced from the playoffs in the second round in the Battle of Florida against their rival Lightning, the Florida Panthers really rallied in the second half of the season. They finished the regular season in the second and final Wild Card spot in the East, with a 42-32-8 record, a point ahead of the Penguins and the Sabres. Despite closing out the regular season with two losses, they closed the regular season hot with a 6-1-1 record in their last eight games.
Florida has been very good offensively this season. They’re averaging 3.51 goals per game, the sixth-most in the NHL, on an average of 36.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the most expected goals (3.8 per game) and the most high-danger shots in the league. The Panthers’ power play has scored on 22.8% of their chances, the tenth-best in the NHL. Matthew Tkachuk (109 points, 69 assists), who was acquired in the offseason from the Calgary Flames and became an excellent addition to the Cats, and Carter Verhaeghe (42 goals) lead Florida in scoring this season.
The Panthers have struggled on the back end, allowing an average of 3.68 goals per game this season, the twelfth-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eighth-most expected goals (3.42 per game) and the third-most high-danger shots. Their penalty kill has struggled at just 75.9%, the tenth-worst in the NHL. Alex Lyon, the third-string goalie to start the season for Florida became their #1 to start their series against the Bruins with Sergei Bobrovsky having his struggles this year in goal (24-20-3 record, 3.07 GAA, .901 save percentage) and Spencer Knight away from the team for a bulk of the season with personal issues. Lyon caught some lightning in a bottle late in the year, starting the last eight games for Florida this season and going 6-1-1 in those games in their playoff push. He ended the regular season with a 9-4-2 record, a 2.89 GAA, a .914 save percentage, and a shutout on the year. Bobrovsky took over in that series though and dominated games down the stretch of the series to keep the Panthers alive and help them advance through the Bruins to the second round.
The Panthers pulled off the biggest upset in NHL history in the first round, knocking off the greatest regular season team in NHL history in seven games, defeating the President’s Trophy winning Boston Bruins. It was an insane win. The Bruins broke record for the best regular season in history with the most points and most wins in league history. They dominated the regular season and even had a 3-1 series lead with several opportunities to end it, but the Panthers came back (with a little luck on their side) to knock off Boston in overtime of Game 7. After splitting the first two games in Boston to open the series where the Bruins played pretty lousy hockey at home, the Bs won the next two games in Florida pretty easily to put the Panthers on the brink of elimination. In Game 5 at home in Boston, the Bruins were by far the dominant team, outshooting Florida 47-25 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.52-3.86, but the Panthers still got extended the series with a fantastic performance in goal from Sergei Bobrovsky in a 4-3 overtime win for the Panthers on Matthew Tkachuk’s game-winner. After the first two games of this series, the Bruins were the far better team in the series, dominating Games 3, 4, and 5, despite losing Game 5 which they likely should have finished this series in as they put 47 shots on the Panthers. Game 6 in Florida was highly entertaining, with the Panthers winning 7-5 at home in a game that saw seven third period goals. Boston outshot the Panthers 34-33 and led twice in the third period, but couldn’t get it done and Florida outplayed the Bruins by an expected goal rate of 4.85-4.02. In Game 7, the Panthers ended the series in overtime, with Brandon Montour scoring the game-tying goal with just a minute left in regulation to force overtime and then Carter Verhaeghe scoring the game winner 8:35 into overtime. Boston outshot Florida 36-31 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 2.98-2.59.
Florida was shockingly good offensively against the Bruins, who had the top regular season defense in the NHL. The Panthers scored the fifth-most goals in the first round, averaging 3.71 on an average of 32.3 shots per game. Their power play was the seventh-best of the first round, scoring on 25% of their chances. Despite winning the series, defensively Florida played pretty poorly, allowing the second-most goals of any team that made the playoffs, allowing the Bruins an average of 3.86 goals per game on an average of 35.6 shots allowed. They had the third-worst penalty kill of the first round, only killing off 59.3% of their penalties.
I think getting out of the first round was so huge for Toronto. They got that monkey off their back without having to constantly hear that they haven’t won a series since 2004. The pressure is off that and now they’re the favorite to win the Cup. I don’t think that’s worth betting on at +365, so I’ll stay off any futures in this series.
With that, I expect the Leafs to win this series, likely pretty easily. I think the series price at -195 is a bit steep but since I think Toronto wins this series in five or six games to advance to the Eastern Conference Finals, I’ll take them to win the series in six games or less at the nice +120 price for 1.5 units. Expecting them to win the series, I’ll take the Leafs ML in Game 1 for 1.5 units.
I’m expecting the games in this series to trend over, just like both teams trended over in the first round. The over went 6-1 in the Bruins/Panthers series and 4-2 in the Leafs/Bolts series. I’m hopefully going to be smashing overs here and likely will go back to my laddered overs in this one as well. In Game 1, I’ll keep it simple with two units on the over.
Futures
None
Series Bets
1.5u Maple Leafs to win series in six games or less (+120)
Game 1 Bets
1.5u Maple Leafs ML (-175)
2u Maple Leafs/Panthers over 6.5 (-130)
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