Tonight the second round of the playoffs begins with this Western Conference matchup between the Seattle Kraken and the Dallas Stars. The Stars finished second in the Central Division and then knocked off the Minnesota Wild in the first round in six games. The Kraken finished in the first Wild Card spot in the West and knocked off the defending Stanley Cup Champions, upsetting the Avalanche in Game 7.
The Stars went 2-1 in the regular season games between these teams this year, with Dallas winning 4-3 in overtime in Seattle on March 11th, the Stars winning 5-2 in Seattle again on March 13th, and the Kraken answering back with a 5-4 overtime win in Dallas on March 21st.
The Stars had a very good regular season and were a solid, competitive team throughout the entire year, finishing 47-21-14 in the second seed in the Central, just a point behind the Avalanche. They ended the regular season on fire, on a six-game win streak, picking up at least a point in eleven of their last 13 games and only losing one of their last nine games.
Dallas has played well on both ends of the ice this season. They’ve scored an average of 3.41 goals per game, the seventh-most in the NHL, on an average of 31.9 shots per game. They’ve generated the twelfth-most expected goals (3.33 per game) and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league. Dallas has been very good on the power play, ranking fifth in the NHL, scoring on 25% of their opportunities. Young star Jason Robertson led them in scoring this year with 109 points, 46 goals, and 63 assists.
The Stars have been very good defensively, allowing just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, an average of 2.62 goals per game on an average of 29.9 shots allowed. They’ve given up the second-fewest expected goals (2.73 per game) and the second-fewest high-danger shots. The Stars have been fantastic on the penalty kill, the third-best in the NHL at 83.5%. Goaltender Jake Oettinger been good this season with a 37-11-11 record, a 2.37 GAA, a .908 save percentage, and five shutouts.
Dallas beat the Minnesota Wild in six games in the first round. At home in Game 1 they lost 3-2 in a very tight game in double overtime. Minnesota outplayed the Stars by an expected goal rate of 4.07-3.76 but were outshot 53-48. The Stars answered back in a huge way in Game 2 with a 7-3 home win, but just slightly outplaying Minnesota by an expected goal rate of 3.13-2.83. For Game 3 with the series shifting to Minnesota, the Wild got their dominant win, winning 5-1 at home. They outshot Dallas 25-24 and outplayed the Stars by an expected goal rate of 2.83-1.93. The Stars answered back to tie the series with a 3-2 win on the road in Game 4. Although they got the win, Dallas was outshot 34-24 by the Wild and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 3.54-3.29. In Game 5, Dallas won in a 4-0 shutout at home on Tuesday night, a great shutout for Jake Oettinger. He made 27 saves as the Stars were outshot 27-25 but they outplayed the Wild by an expected goal rate of 3.02-1.69. The Stars ended the series with a 4-1 win on the road in Minnesota in Game 6, outshooting the Wild 33-24 and dominated Minnesota by an expected goal rate of 4.16-2.88.
In the first round against Minnesota, the Stars were very good on both ends of the ice. They scored an average of 3.5 goals per game, the sixth-most of the teams that made the playoffs, on an average of 31.7 shots per game. They capitalized on 37.5% of their power play chances, the fourth-most of teams that made the playoffs. Dallas was the best defensive team of the first round, allowing the fewest goals of any team in the playoffs, an average of just 2.33 goals per game, on an average of 30.7 shots allowed per game. They killed off 81.8% of their penalties, the sixth-best penalty kill of teams that made the playoffs.
After being horrible in their inaugural season last year, the Seattle Kraken improved immensely this season and had success while being very fun to watch. They finished the regular season comfortably in the first Wild Card spot in the Western Conference with a 46-28-8 record, five points ahead of the Jets and four points behind the Kings. Although they lost their last two games of the year in a home-and-home against Vegas, they won their five straight games prior.
The Kraken have been very good offensively this season. They’ve scored the fifth-most goals in the NHL, an average of 3.52 goals per game on an average of 30.5 shots per game. They’ve generated the tenth-fewest expected goals (3.08 per game) and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. Seattle has scored on 19.8% of their power play chances, the twelfth-fewest in the NHL. They’re led in scoring by Jared McCann (70 points, 40 goals) and Vince Dunn (64 points, 50 assists).
Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times. They’ve allowed an average of 3.07 goals per game, the 14th-fewest in the NHL, on an average of 27 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the eighth-fewest expected goals (2.92 per game) and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots. The Kraken have killed off 76.7% of their penalties. Philipp Grubauer had a 17-14–4 record with a 2.85 GAA and a .895 save percentage. Backing him up is Martin Jones, who has a 27-13-3 record, a 2.99 GAA, a .887 save percentage, and three shutouts.
Most of the hockey world didn’t give the Kraken a chance to beat the Avs in the first round but like I said in my series preview of their first round matchup, I though Seattle could hang in there with the defending Cup champs. So it didn’t surprise me that this series went seven games, but I was surprised that Colorado couldn’t find a way to pull it off. The Avs outshot the Kraken 35-30 and outplayed them by an expected goal rate of 3.73-2.33 but couldn’t get the win at home in Game 1, shocking a lot of people with a 3-1 Seattle win. In Game 2 on Thursday night the Avalanche answered back with a much-needed 3-2 win at home to even the series, outshooting Seattle 41-29 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 3.65-2.39. In Game 3 the Avs dominated in a 6-4 win, outshooting the Kraken 34-29 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 4.32-2.78. Seattle answered back at home in Game 4 with a 3-2 overtime victory. They were the much better team in that game, outshooting Colorado 43-22 and dominating the Cup champs by an expected goal rate of 5.6-2.57. The Avs came back from a 2-0 deficit to force overtime but ultimately lost on Jordan Eberle’s power-play goal in OT. The Kraken got a huge 3-2 win in Colorado in Game 5, outshooting the Avs 29-28 but they were just slightly outplayed by an expected goal rate of 2.62-2.47. The Avalanche extended the series to Game 7 with a big 4-1 win in Seattle in Game 6, outshooting the Kraken 39-23 and outplaying them by an expected goal rate of 2.89-2.4. Game 7 was a grind with the Kraken fending off an eliminating the defending Cup Champs with a 2-1 win on the road in Denver, limiting the Avs to just one goal on the power play, getting the win while getting outshot 34-27 and outplayed by an expected goal rate of 2.43-1.75.
Knocking off the Avalanche in the first round of the playoffs, the Kraken did it defensively. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round, an average of just 2.71 goals per game on an average of 33.3 shots per game. They had the second-best penalty kill of the first round, killing off 88.9% of their penalties. Offensively Seattle wasn’t great in the first round. They scored just the fifth-fewest goals of the first round, averaging 2.57 goals per game on an average of 30 shots per game. Their power play converted on just 14.3% of their chances, the third-worst of the teams that made the playoffs.
Seattle got past the Avs, but I think this is the end of the season for them. I think the Stars are the better team here and I expect them to advance with a series win in likely five or six games. Although in the regular season the Kraken scored more than Dallas did, the Stars did a much better job of generating offense, generating the twelfth-most expected goals and the eighth-most high-danger shots in the league while Seattle generated just the tenth-fewest expected goals and the ninth-fewest high-danger shots in the league. In the first round, the Kraken scored just the fifth-fewest goals of teams that made the playoffs while the Stars scored the sixth-most. Defensively in the regular season, the Stars were elite, having allowed just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, and they gave up just the second-fewest expected goals and the second-fewest high-danger shots. Defensively, Seattle’s been inconsistent and they’ve struggled at times in the regular season, having allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL. They allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round. I’ll take the Stars to win the series in six games or less for two units. With that, I also expect them to win Game 1 at home and I’ll take them for 1.5 units.
I already have futures on both teams in the other Western Conference matchup and think Dallas could compete with either the Knights or the Oilers, and will add 2 units on the Stars to win the Cup.
Although the four regular season games between these teams hit the over, I’m expecting the games in this series to stay under the total, with low scoring matchups. Both teams trended under both in the regular season and in their first round playoff series. In the regular season, the under in Stars games went 44-34-4 and 40-38-4 in Kraken games. In the playoffs, the under in Dallas games went 4-2 and six of the seven games in Seattle’s first round series hit the under. Both of these teams have been good defensively, especially in the first round of the playoffs. In their first-round series, the Stars allowed the fewest goals of any team in the playoffs and the Kraken allowed the seventh-fewest goals of the first round. In the regular season, Dallas was elite defensively, having allowed just the third-fewest goals in the NHL, having given up the second-fewest expected goals and the second-fewest high-danger shots. Although the Kraken allowed the 14th-fewest goals in the NHL in the regular season, they did a very good job of limiting chances to their opponents, having given up the eighth-fewest expected goals and the tenth-fewest high-danger shots. I’ll take the under in Game 1 for a unit.
Futures
2u Dallas Stars – Stanley Cup Champions (+815)
Series Bets
2u Stars to win series in six games or less (+105)
Game 1 Bets
1.5u Stars ML (-186)
1u Stars/Kraken under 5.5 (-127)
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