This Pacific Division matchup should be fun between the 2 seed Edmonton Oilers, the back to back defending Western Conference Champions, and the Anaheim Ducks, who finished just a point behind them in a fun year.
During the regular season, the Oilers went 2-1 against the Ducks, all in high scoring games. The first game was a 7-4 blowout win at home for Edmonton on January 26th, scoring four straight goals in the second period, with a hat trick for each team, with Mattias Ekholm getting one for the Oilers and Mikael Granlund getting one in the losing effort for the Ducks. In the second game in Anaheim on February 25th, the Ducks came back from a 4-2 deficit in the third period to win 6-5 at home. Then in the last game on March 28th, the Ducks comeback effort in the third period fell short as they went down 3-0 in the third, and ended up losing 4-2 in Edmonton, capped off with a Zach Hyman empty netter with 17 seconds left to ice it off.
After going to the Stanley Cup Finals the last two years and losing to the Panthers both years, they had a bit of a roller coaster. They got off to a pretty lousy 9-9-5 start, then came back and had an alright year out of the weak Pacific Division. They finished second in the division with a 41-30-11 record, two points back from the Golden Knights and a point ahead of the Ducks for home ice in the first round.
The Oilers were very good offensively, averaged 3.44 goals per game, ranking sixth in the NHL, on an average of 29.7 shots per game. They’ve generated the fifth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.31) in the league and the fifth-most high danger shots. The Edmonton power play was the best in the NHL, scoring at an impressive 30.6% rate. As no surprise to anyone, the best player in the world, Connor McDavid led them this season with a league-leading 138 points, 48 goals, and a league-leading 90 assists. Leon Draisaitl will be back in the lineup tonight after missing some time with an injury, with 97 points, 35 goals, and 62 assists in 65 games. Evan Bouchard had a career year on the blue line, with 95 points, 21 goals, and 74 assists.
Defensively Edmonton struggled big time, allowing an average of 3.23 goals per game, the eighth-most in the NHL, on an average of 26.7 shots allowed per game. They’ve given up the just the 16th-fewest expected goals per 60 minutes (3.1) and the 13th-most high danger shots. The Oilers penalty kill unit wasn’t great at 77.8%, the 13th-worst in the NHL. As usual, their goaltending struggled this year. They traded Stuart Skinner mid-season for Tristan Jarry from the Penguins, who went 9-6 for them, with a lousy 3.86 GAA, .858 save percentage, and a shutout. Not good. Connor Ingram was decent for them and will start tonight. He went 16-10-3, with a 2.6 GAA, .899 save percentage, and two shutouts.
The Ducks got into the three seed over the Kings (who are facing the President’s Trophy winning Avalanche in the first round) with a really solid season, going 43-33-6, making the playoffs for the first time since 2017, a point behind the Oilers for home ice. All their young stars were a ton of fun to watch this year, leading them to the playoffs and I think this team has a ton of potential to be very good in the future. They had a few great runs this year, but also some pretty bad losing streaks, limping into the playoffs with just two wins in their last ten games.
Anaheim’s young offense was awesome this year. They scored an average of 3.23 goals per game, the 13th-most in the NHL, on an average of 30.8 shots per game. They’ve generated the fourth-most expected goals per 60 minutes (3.17), behind just the Avs, Canes, and Lightning, and the twelfth-most high danger shots in the league. The Ducks power play wasn’t great, the tenth-worst in the NHL, scoring at just an 18.6% rate. Anaheim’s offense was led by all their young future superstars. Cutter Gauthier had 69 points, 41 goals, and 28 assists. Leo Carlsson had 67 points, 29 goals, and 39 assists. In just 61 games, Troy Terry had 19 goals and 38 assists for 57 points. On the back end, Jackson LaCombe led the team with 48 assists.
The Ducks were awful on the back end this season. They allowed the fourth-most goals in the NHL this year, only better than the Canucks, Leafs, and Sharks, giving up an average of 3.51 goals per game on an average of 28.4 shots per game. They gave up the sixth-most expected goals (3.29) in the NHL per game and they gave up the 15th-fewest high danger shots. Anaheim was terrible on the penalty kill, the sixth-worst in the NHL at 76.4%. Lukas Dostal will start in goal for them. He went 30-20-4, and wasn’t great, with a 3.1 GAA and an .888 save percentage.
I like the Oilers to win this series, with much better stars, with two of the best players in the NHL leading the way, and way more experience. The price I think is a bit too expensive though at -240. I considered just taking them to win it in six games or less at -115, but at that point, I think I’m better off just betting this series game by game.
I love the overs in this series, expecting a lot of high scoring games. Both of these teams played a lot of high scoring games with good play offensively, and quite lousy and inconsistent play on the back end. The over 6.5 went 2-1 pretty easily in the three games these teams played this year. They both finished the year to head into the playoffs with a bunch of high scoring games. Both teams significantly trended over this year, with the over going 45-33-4 in Oilers games and 48-33-1 in Ducks games.
I love a handful of player props in this series. Obviously I love McDavid and Draisaitl on the Oilers side, but I’ll have to do 2+ points per game or goals for those guys, even with them parlayed being insane prices. I also kind of like Bouchard points and assists in this series. On the Ducks side, I like a handful of guys including Leo Carlsson and Troy Terry to get points, and Cutter Gauthier to both get points and light the lamp.
In Game 1 tonight, I like the Oilers to win it at home to start off the series. I’ll take them in regulation for a unit, since the -200 on the moneyline is a little bit too expensive. I love the over, which I’ll take for 1.5 units. On the player props, I’ll take McDavid to get over 1.5 points for a unit, Leon Draisaitl to get over 1.5 points for half a unit, and Cutter Gauthier to get a point in his playoff debut. I considered taking Connor and Leon to score goals too, but I’ll stay off those in Game 1.
Game 1 Bets
1u Oilers in regulation (-120)
1.5 Oilers/Ducks over 6.5 (-135)
1u Connor McDavid over 1.5 points (-135)
.5u Leon Draisaitl over 1.5 points (-110)
.5u Cutter Gauthier over 0.5 point (-145)
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