The PGA Tour makes its return to Trump Doral’s Blue Monster in Florida for the first time in ten years this week for a signature event with the Cadillac Championship back!
Course Breakdown
Par 72, 7,739 yards (over 200 yards longer than it was the last time this course was played on the PGA Tour and the second longest non-major course on tour behind Torrey Pines South), three of the four Par 3s are over 200 yards with the other one just 155 yards, six of the Par 4s are between 450-500 yards, the Par 5s are long – averaging over 600 yards, very thin hard to hit fairways with bunkers and water everywhere, 110 bunkers with a lot of them being very deep, water in play on ten holes, rough isn’t very penal but there are bad spots where it can catch your club and control the ball out of the thick Bermuda, very fast and massive Bermuda greens with lots of mounds and undulation, most greens slope from back to front, greens are guarded by difficult green side bunkers, false fronts, and shaved off collection areas
Tournament Notes
- No cut event
- This course hosted events on LIV the last four years (the last two as regular tournaments and the first two as the team championship)
- The last time this course hosted an event on the PGA Tour was in 2016, when it was a WGC event from 2007 through 2016
- After the 2013 redesign, this course was one of the top 11 hardest courses on tour every year
- In 2016, there were only four bogey free rounds here and the course is even tougher now
- In 2016, 14 of the top 16 finishers gained strokes on the Par 3s and the T3 finishers led the field in stokes gained on the Par 5s
- I’m not paying much attention to the course history here since it hasn’t been on tour since 2016 and those players that did play it a decade ago are different profiles of golfers in today’s game than they were back then
Key Stats
Approach, SG: OTT, Proximity 200+ Yards, SG: ARG
Main proximity distance range on approach: 200+ yards
Corollary Courses
- Augusta National (The Masters) – Long difficult course with tough putting. In 2016, all of the T5 finishers were Masters champions and each of the last four winners of this event (2012-2016) were all Masters champions
- Bay Hill (Arnold Palmer Invitational) – Similar setup with a long course, easier rough and tough bunkers
Field
72 golfers – Signature event with most of the top golfers in the world besides a good handful taking the week off
Defending Champion (2016): Adam Scott (-12)
One and Done: Scottie Scheffler
One and Done Considerations: Scottie Scheffler, Cameron Young, Hideki Matsuyama, Adam Scott
Players
Cameron Young: 10200: +1275 – Second favorite in the field behind Scheffler and second in my model behind Scotty, elite off the tee and has gained strokes OTT in his last 13 events, won at THE PLAYERS already this year, besides the RBC Heritage where he lost putting he has gained strokes on Approach, T2G, OTT, and putting in each of his last five events, he’s elite off the tee and has gained strokes OTT in his last eleven events 25,3,1,3,7,55,41,22,10,9,4,11,5,1,MC,46,52,4,4,25,47,7 finishes in his last 22 events, first time playing this course, 8th in Approach, 2nd in SG: OTT, 10th in Driving Distance, 26th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 55th in Par 3 Scoring, 55th in 201–225 Yards, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, 22nd in Par 5 Scoring, 20th in Sand Saves, 22nd in SG: ARG, 24th in Putting, 3rd in Bogey Avoidance
Collin Morikawa: 9800: +1950 – Played fantastic golf to start the year and seems to be back healthy after he had to WD from THE PLAYERS with a back injury after he played one hole, gained around the greens in six straight events and putting in three of his last four events, won already once this year at a signature event at Pebble Beach, first time playing this event, 4,7,WD,5,7,1,54,MC,14,43,33,22 finishes in his last twelve events, 2nd in Approach, 12th in SG: OTT, 42nd in Driving Distance, 14th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 35th in Par 3 Scoring, 35th in 201–225 Yards, 6th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Par 5 Scoring, 5th in Sand Saves, 24th in SG: ARG, 36th in Putting, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Si Woo Kim: 9200: +2700 – Doesn’t have much driving distance but maps out fantastic for every other stat I’ve looked at for this course, playing very consistent golf this year and gaining strokes T2G every week, has won in strong fields in his career, coming off a third place finish at the RBC Heritage with 3,47,10,50,13,34,45,3,2,6,11,4,20,19,14 finishes in his last 15 events, first time playing this event, 15th in Approach, 7th in SG: OTT, 47th in Driving Distance, 10th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 27th in Par 3 Scoring, 27th in 201–225 Yards, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 41st in Par 5 Scoring, 46th in Sand Saves, 21st in SG: ARG, 49th in Putting, 7th in Bogey Avoidance
Hideki Matsyuma: 9000: +3100 – Playing well this year and should’ve already won this year when he blew it on 18 and the playoff at Waste Management, his approach numbers have been fantastic to start the year and he only has one finish worse than 28th since last June, I’m a bit worried with his horrible driving but the rough isn’t awful here, 12,2127,41,28,8,2,11,13,1,20,29,26,17,19,16,13,30,42,38,36,MC,17,21 finishes in his last 24 events, T35 and T23 finishes here in 2016 and 2015, 6th in Approach, 53rd in SG: OTT, 46th in Driving Distance, 7th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 12th in Par 3 Scoring, 12th in 201–225 Yards, 15th in Par 4 Scoring, 8th in Par 5 Scoring, 2nd in Sand Saves, 6th in SG: ARG, 21st in Putting, 9th in Bogey Avoidance
Adam Scott: 8400: +4300 – Pops in my model this week, technically the defending champion here even though it was a decade ago and finished T4 here in 2015, playing well this year with 24,21,56,11,4,30,24,40,27,55,53,MC,17,30,12,31,19,34 finishes in his last 18 events, 3rd in Approach, 18th in SG: OTT, 8th in Driving Distance, 2nd in Proximity 200+ Yards, 22nd in Par 3 Scoring, 22nd in 201–225 Yards, 51st in Par 4 Scoring, 9th in Par 5 Scoring, 18th in Sand Saves, 41st in SG: ARG, 47th in Putting, 16th in Bogey Avoidance
Nicolai Hojgaard: 7800: +4100 – He’s been fantastic T2G all year and I keep betting him, crushes it off the tee, 55,MC,2,55,27,24,6,3,22,4,52,11,3,14,MC,55,14,4,24 finishes in his last 19 events on both the PGA and DP World Tour,, first time playing this course, 11th in Approach, 19th in SG: OTT, 6th in Driving Distance, 16th in Proximity 200+ Yards, 5th in Par 3 Scoring, 5th in 201–225 Yards, 26th in Par 4 Scoring, 26th in Par 5 Scoring, 57th in Sand Saves, 33rd in SG: ARG, 30th in Putting, 25th in Bogey Avoidance
Model
Approach (20%)
SG: OTT (10%)
Driving Distance (5%)
Proximity 200+ Yards (10%)
Par 3 Scoring 201-225 Yards (5%)
Par 4 Scoring (10%)
Par 5 Scoring (5%)
Sand Saves (5%)
SG: ARG (10%)
Putting (10%)
Bogie Avoidance (10 %)
Stats based on past 36 rounds
DraftKings/Betting Notes
- This feels like a Scotty week but I just can’t get there at +315, so I’m just taking the non-Scotty market on everyone this week
- Odds across the board are garbage this week
Bets
Outrights (without Scotty Scheffler)
1u Cameron Young (+1025)
.7u Collin Morikawa (+1550)
.5u Si Woo Kim (+2500)
.5u Hideki Matsuyama (+3125)
.5u Nicolai Hojgaard (+3250)
.5u Adam Scott (+3696)
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