I’m on a five day win streak on the NHL Playoffs, going 3-2 on Avs vs. Wild in Game 4 to win 1.02 units last night. Gotta keep rolling on both very keys games tonight!
Game 4: Canadiens vs. Sabres (7:00)
This series does not feel good in the slightest to me from my perspective as a huge Sabres fan. This series started with the Sabres winning Game 1 at home and has gone downhill big time in the two games since, with the Habs now leading the series 2-1. I thought Game 1 was actually pretty solid for both teams, with my Sabres winning 4-2 at home. We got outshot 28-16, which wasn’t great, but I thought we played quite well on both ends of the ice all night to get the win. Alex Lyon was fantastic in goal, with some help from the posts. Really good game, and the offense was successful on limited opportunities with some big goals from the depth in our line. Zach Benson was fantastic, drawing a penalty early and getting two fantastic assists to set up the first two goals of the first period. Then even though we only had one shot on goal in the third period, locked down and held off the comeback push from Montreal. Montreal answered back in Game 2 on Friday night, absolutely dominating the Sabres in an absolutely awful game. We looked like complete shit from start to finish, getting embarrassed quickly and often all night on home ice. The crowd was out of it right away after we went down 2-0 in just the first five minutes of the game. Gave away the puck on more turnovers than passes we completed. We barely got anything going in the slightest in the Habs zone. Barely any quality scoring chances. Our offense was completely dead. We took a ton of stupid penalties and the Habs dominated the entire game to tie up this series. Our best players were the worst ones on the ice tonight, especially Tage. It was just horrible. Only bright side of this game was Benson being his little carnival freak self, our little rat. But besides him, nothing. As the series shifted to Montreal for Game 3, it was arguably even more embarrassing for Buffalo, losing 6-2 on the road to fall 2-1 in the series. We’ve gotten completely dominated for two games in a row. Our defense was absolutely awful, and our offense got next to nothing going with just a goal from Tage 53 seconds in and a power play goal by Dahlin. We couldn’t even possess the fucking puck or keep it in the Habs zone. Shockingly, even giving up five goals, I did think Lyon was pretty good. The game should’ve been a blowout in the first period, but he kept us in there until everything completely fell apart. Just so bad. This is a must win game for the Sabres, or our season is done. Not a chance we fall down 3-1 in this series and find a way to win three in a row after how badly the Habs dominated us in Games 2 and 3. Lindy Ruff is making a handful of changes to the lineup tonight to try to motivate this team to tie up this series, and I don’t particularly love them, including making a goalie change with UPL starting tonight. I guess you have to try something, but can’t see that working out for us. I really strongly considered betting Montreal tonight at home, almost placed that bet multiple times today, but just can’t do it. In the playoffs, I can’t bet against my own team that I’ve watched miss the playoffs for 15 seasons, but Habs ML is a no brainer bet if you have no affiliation to this team. I do love the over though, which I’ll take for a unit. LET’S GO SABRES!!! HAVE to win tonight!
Game 5: Golden Knights vs. Ducks (9:30)
This Pacific Division series has been a lot of fun, now tied 2-2 heading back to Vegas for Game 5 tonight. Game 1 was great. These teams battled, with a fantastic night in goal for Carter Hart, as the Ducks outshot Vegas 34-22, but the Golden Knights got the 3-1 win at home. The Knights lead till late, until Mikael Granlund tied it up with 6:03 left in regulation, but just 1:05 later, right after a questionable no-call, Pavel Dorofeyev set up a sick pass to Ivan Barbashev to get Vegas the lead back, capped off by a Mitch Marner empty netter. Not the best game for the Golden Knights and they still found a way to get a really solid win. The Ducks answered back though in Game 2, with a very good game for Lukas Dostal, having a shutout until the final six seconds of the game when Mark Stone scored on the power play, getting Anaheim a 3-1 win at home to even the series. As the series shift to Anaheim on Friday, the Golden Knights absolutely dominated that game, winning 6-2 on the road in a spectacular game for Mitch Marner. The Knights scored early in the first period and never gave up the lead, scoring three goals in the first period, including one shorthanded, and then Mitch Marner on the power play made it 3-0 with five seconds left in the first. Marner kept rolling with a natural hat trick, his first in a playoff game with an assist to go with it. Carter Hart shut out the Ducks until there was just 13.5 minutes left in the game, where it was already out of reach with Vegas up 5-0 going into the third. In Game 4 on Sunday after that effort on the road in Game 3, I thought the Golden Knights would win again, but these teams battled again, with both teams trading goals. Late in the second period, Alex Killorn gave the Ducks the lead back and early in the third, Ian Moore made it 4-2 Anaheim, putting the game just too far out of reach for the Knights, who scored one more late, but couldn’t tie it up, losing 4-3 on the road as the Ducks tied the series back up. I like Vegas to win at home tonight quite a bit and I’ll take them for 1.5 units. I’d lean the over, but not enough to bet it at 6.5. I’ll also go back to my parlay on Jack Eichel and Mitch Marner to each get a point for a unit.
Series Bets
1.5u Golden Knights – Series Winner (-190)
Bets
1u Canadiens/Sabres over 6.5 (+100)
1.5u Golden Knights ML (-165)
1u parlay: Jack Eichel/Mitch Marner 1+ point each (-142)
Regular Season Record: 935-1041-2 (-106.22 units)
Playoffs Round 1 Record: 68-75 (-7.44 units)
Playoffs Round 2 Record: 25-24 (+7.16 units)
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A Town's Zone 